The war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is threatening food security far beyond the Middle East, placing millions at risk worldwide, according to new research published in Global Food Security. While a fragile ceasefire has temporarily halted the violence that erupted on 28 February, the underlying tensions remain unresolved. Central to the crisis is Iran’s attempt to restrict trade and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a US blockade of Iranian ports—developments that continue to disrupt global supply chains.

Researchers from the University of Sharjah warn that instability in the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for global energy—has sharply increased energy prices, triggering cascading disruptions across food systems. Regions such as the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and East Africa, already facing chronic vulnerability, are particularly exposed. However, the effects are not confined to these areas; the study emphasises that no country is fully insulated from the ripple effects of such geopolitical shocks.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global petroleum and liquefied natural gas supplies pass each day. Its disruption raises fertiliser costs—given their reliance on natural gas—while also increasing expenses tied to food processing, refrigeration, and transportation. The result is a chain reaction that pushes up food prices and undermines food security on a global scale.

The study finds that the war has also driven up maritime insurance premiums and fuelled speculative surges in commodity prices. These pressures erode household purchasing power, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, and weaken both the availability and quality of food. Lead author Farah Naja explains that the impacts extend across the entire food supply chain, from production to consumption, with severe consequences for populations already experiencing food shortages.

At the production level, the conflict is driving up costs in multiple ways. Fertiliser prices have surged, with urea rising significantly above pre-war levels, while key exporters in the conflict zone face disruptions. Higher energy costs make it more expensive to process, store, and transport food, ultimately leading to higher retail prices. These combined pressures disproportionately affect the most vulnerable populations, increasing the risk of hunger and malnutrition.

The research also highlights a shift in dietary patterns as economic strain intensifies. As food becomes more expensive, households tend to reduce spending on nutritious items such as fruits, vegetables, and protein-rich foods, instead turning to cheaper, calorie-dense alternatives. This shift may not immediately result in visible hunger but contributes to long-term health consequences, particularly for children and pregnant women, where nutritional deficiencies can cause lasting developmental harm.

Drawing on lessons from past crises—including the 2007–08 food price spike, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine war—the study argues that the tools to mitigate such impacts already exist. It calls for coordinated action at the household, national, and international levels, emphasising the importance of proactive measures such as strategic reserves, social protection systems, and stronger global cooperation. Without timely intervention, the authors warn, the costs of inaction will fall most heavily on those already facing the greatest food insecurity.

More information: Farah Naja et al, Food security amid the US Iran war: a food system analysis and a framework for coordinated multilevel action, Global Food Security. DOI: 10.1016/j.gfs.2026.100919

Journal information: Global Food Security Provided by University of Sharjah