The COVID-19 pandemic presented governments around the world with an extraordinary challenge: how to strike an effective balance between infection control and the preservation of economic stability. To investigate how nations navigated this dilemma, researchers analysed the temporal dynamics of mortality, vaccination uptake, production levels, and economic recovery across a diverse set of countries. Their findings revealed that differences in national performance were shaped not only by policy choices but also by underlying attitudes towards risk and economic preference. These insights provide valuable lessons for governments and citizens alike in preparing for future pandemics, where social defence will depend on a deeper understanding of behavioural responses and cooperation.
When COVID-19 first spread across the globe, it caught societies unprepared, forcing governments to adopt extraordinary and often unprecedented measures. Nations adopted varying strategies, yet the fundamental questions were remarkably similar: How should policymakers respond to a rapidly emerging infectious threat? And, equally important, how should populations cooperate with their governments in enacting protective measures? The answers to these questions shaped outcomes in both public health and economic terms, as some countries prioritised the strict suppression of infections. In contrast, others leaned more heavily towards protecting livelihoods and economic activity.
The spectrum of responses produced strikingly different trajectories. Some states, by imposing strict controls early, managed to limit mortality at the outset, while others emphasised economic continuity but endured greater losses of life. Each approach generated its own set of trade-offs, and together they offer a unique comparative lens through which future global crises may be managed more effectively. In this context, Professor Hiroaki Masuhara of the Faculty of Economics and Law at Shinshu University and Professor Kei Hosoya of the Faculty of Economics at Kokugakuin University undertook a comprehensive cross-country analysis. Their study, published in the Journal of Policy Modeling on 7 August 2025, examined data on deaths, vaccination coverage, production, and consumption across member nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), as well as Singapore and Taiwan, from the beginning of 2020 through the close of 2022.
The study’s findings underscore the transient nature of infection control. In the early months of the pandemic, countries such as Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan managed to contain death rates with considerable success. Yet by 2022, even these nations faced surges in mortality, revealing the difficulty of sustaining control measures indefinitely. By contrast, Eastern European countries and the United Kingdom experienced high mortality earlier, reflecting challenges in implementing or sustaining stringent health measures. These contrasts reveal that infection control was never a permanent achievement but rather a constantly shifting goal, shaped by both virus dynamics and societal response.
On the economic front, strict infection control often coincided with reductions in production and consumption. Except for Norway, Finland, and Israel, all nations studied reported significant declines in output, while consumption fell universally. The researchers highlight that beyond the policies themselves, citizens’ behaviour and underlying attitudes—such as levels of patience, trust in government, and tolerance of risk—proved decisive in shaping both economic and health outcomes. For example, Norway stood out as particularly successful in balancing mortality control with economic revival, reflecting high trust levels and risk-averse behaviour. Similarly, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan combined early success in suppressing deaths with notable progress in economic recovery, though their experiences diverged later.
By contrast, countries such as the United States and many in Eastern Europe fared less well in curbing fatalities. The United States, characterised by lower patience and greater tolerance of risk, nonetheless achieved a relatively steady path of economic recovery, albeit at the cost of higher mortality. Japan, on the other hand, displayed strong risk aversion and low confidence, conditions associated with a more fragile economic revival despite initial success in controlling deaths. These observations suggest that national attitudes towards risk and patience influence not only immediate health outcomes but also the pace and shape of economic rebound. Regional dynamics also appeared to play a role, as neighbouring countries’ approaches exerted influence on policy choices.
Reflecting on these findings, Professor Masuhara emphasises the importance of integrating social and psychological dimensions into pandemic preparedness. “To enhance public health and economic performance,” he observes, “it is necessary to take into account the different time preferences and attitudes toward risk that vary by country and its citizens. These insights should be recognised not only by governments but also by people themselves, and constitute an important component of social defence, including voluntary behavioural changes during future pandemics.” Such recognition underscores that effective responses do not depend solely on state capacity but also on the willingness of populations to cooperate, to exercise patience, and to trust the measures being implemented.
Ultimately, the research illustrates that achieving lasting infection control alongside stable economic performance is a profoundly complex undertaking. Beyond chance or “luck,” national levels of trust, patience, and risk tolerance are key determinants of success. While no single factor guarantees positive outcomes, understanding these dynamics can inform more adaptive and effective policymaking. As Professor Masuhara concludes, “The success or failure of interventions depends on public patience and trust, and widespread cooperation with governmental interventions can contribute to building a robust social epidemic prevention system. We hope that our paper will serve as foundational material for future policy discussions.” By drawing on these insights, governments and citizens may be better prepared to navigate the inevitable tensions between health protection and economic vitality when the next pandemic arrives.
More information: Hiroaki Masuhara et al, Which countries performed better in the COVID-19 pandemic? Lessons from and for governments, Journal of Policy Modeling. DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.05.008
Journal information: Journal of Policy Modeling Provided by Shinshu University