According to recent findings published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases, long COVID-19 cases may inflict significant financial damage on the U.S. economy, with annual costs estimated between $2.01 and $6.56 billion. This study, conducted by the Public Health Informatics, Computational, and Operations Research (PHICOR) team at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, in collaboration with the CUNY Institute for Implementation Science in Population Health and Baylor College of Medicine, utilises a sophisticated computer simulation model to analyse the economic impact of long COVID. The model estimates that each case of long COVID could result in societal costs ranging from $5,084 to $11,646, predominantly due to productivity losses.

Bruce Y. Lee, MD, MBA, the study’s senior author and a professor at CUNY SPH, emphasised the significant burden COVID imposes on society, highlighting the direct healthcare costs and substantial productivity losses affecting businesses nationwide. According to Lee, the general public could eventually bear these financial burdens through higher insurance premiums and taxes. The model developed for the study simulates scenarios where an individual of a specified age contracts the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with varying probabilities of developing long-term COVID and experiencing a range of symptoms over time. These symptoms can significantly reduce an individual’s productivity at work or school and lead to a need for various medical interventions.

The simulation results reveal that the overwhelming majority of costs associated with long-term COVID-19—approximately 95%—stem from reduced productivity. This includes absenteeism and presenteeism, where employees are less effective at work. When extrapolated to all COVID-19 cases, the model suggests there are currently between 44.69 and 48.04 million long COVID cases in the U.S., costing the economy billions annually. The study also factors in direct medical costs, which contribute to the overall economic strain while only constituting a small fraction of the total costs (1.04%).

Peter J. Hotez, MD, PhD, professor and dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-author of the study, commented on the broader implications of long COVID, noting that the chronic disabilities resulting from the condition could potentially match or exceed the more immediate impacts of COVID-19, such as deaths and hospitalisations. This study not only puts into perspective the direct and indirect costs associated with long COVID but also underscores the ongoing efforts to understand and mitigate its impact on society. As the study indicates, increasing the estimated prevalence of long COVID from 6% to 10% could raise the total annual societal costs to $3.34 billion, highlighting the dynamic nature of this ongoing health and economic crisis.

More information: Peter J. Hotez et al, The Current and Future Burden of Long COVID in the United States, Journal of Infectious Diseases. DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaf030

Journal information: Journal of Infectious Diseases Provided by CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy