As global uncertainty intensifies, governments are under growing pressure to make decisions that preserve long-term stability while remaining responsive to rapid, unforeseen change. In a recent interview published in the journal Risk Sciences, Lim Siong Guan, one of Singapore’s most experienced public-sector leaders, provides a rare insider’s perspective on how uncertainty can be addressed through governance, leadership, and organisational culture.

Lim challenges conventional notions of risk management in government, arguing that the real task is not to eliminate risk but to prepare for an uncertain future. “In government, we rarely use the word risk,” he explains. “A more accurate description is managing uncertainty with a future orientation.” Rather than responding only when crises arise, he stresses the importance of continual preparation for a range of possible futures.

A central pillar of this approach is Singapore’s long-standing practice of scenario planning. This structured method explores alternative future pathways without assigning probabilities, allowing policymakers to test whether strategies remain effective under different conditions. According to Lim, scenario planning strengthens institutional resilience by ensuring that decisions are robust even when circumstances shift. Complementing this is horizon scanning, which focuses on detecting early signals of emerging risks or opportunities so that governments can respond before challenges fully materialise.

However, Lim is clear that formal planning tools have limits, particularly when dealing with what he calls the “unknown unknowns” — events that cannot be anticipated in advance. In such situations, organisational culture becomes critical. He argues that shared values, adaptability, and a willingness to learn from mistakes enable institutions to cope when established plans fall short. For Lim, culture provides the flexibility and judgment needed when uncertainty exceeds the bounds of analytical models.

Leadership, he suggests, must also adapt to increasingly complex and unpredictable environments. Using metaphors such as the dragon boat race, the symphony orchestra, and the football match, Lim illustrates how leadership styles must evolve. In today’s world, leaders can no longer control every decision from the top. Instead, they must build capable teams, empower individuals at different levels, and trust them to make sound decisions in real time.

Trust itself is a recurring theme in Lim’s reflections on governance. Drawing on experiences during crises such as COVID-19, he notes that public trust allows governments to adjust policies as new information emerges. When citizens perceive their leaders as caring, competent, and credible, they are more likely to accept policy changes in uncertain circumstances.

Overall, Lim Siong Guan’s insights highlight how long-term strategic thinking, adaptive leadership, and a resilient institutional culture can help governments navigate uncertainty. In a rapidly changing world, these elements together form the foundation for effective and responsive governance.

More information: Yexin Chen et al, From managing uncertainty to national strategy: An interview with Lim Siong Guan, Risk Sciences. DOI: 10.1016/j.risk.2025.100047

Journal information: Risk Sciences Provided by KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.