A comprehensive new analysis of South Africa’s environmental footprint reveals a complex and often contradictory relationship between development and pollution. Researchers Frank Ranganai Matenda, Helper Zhou, and Mabutho Sibanda from the University of KwaZulu-Natal, alongside Asif Raihan of the National University of Malaysia, examined three decades of national data to identify the main drivers of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Covering the period from 1990 to 2020, the study explores how economic growth, global integration, and technological change are shaping environmental outcomes, while also highlighting the promise of renewable energy as a pathway towards reducing emissions.

To analyse these long-term dynamics, the researchers applied a statistical approach known as the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares estimator, which is particularly effective for examining time-series data with evolving relationships. The model assessed the influence of five key factors: economic growth, fossil fuel consumption, renewable energy use, technological innovation measured through patent activity, and globalisation. To strengthen the credibility of their results, the team also employed additional econometric techniques, including Fully Modified Least Squares and Canonical Cointegrating Regression, ensuring consistent findings across multiple analytical methods.

The results confirm that fossil fuel dependence remains the dominant force behind rising emissions. A modest increase in fossil energy consumption was associated with a disproportionately large rise in CO₂ output, underscoring the structural reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources. Economic growth and globalisation were also linked to higher emissions, reflecting a development model in which industrial expansion and international economic activity continue to depend heavily on polluting energy inputs. These findings illustrate how progress, in its current form, is closely tied to environmental degradation.

One of the more unexpected outcomes was the positive relationship between technological innovation and emissions. Rather than reducing environmental impact, increased patent activity was associated with a rise in CO₂ output. This suggests that innovation within South Africa has not been sufficiently directed towards clean or energy-efficient technologies, but instead has supported industrial processes that remain dependent on fossil fuels. In contrast, renewable energy emerged as the only factor that consistently reduced emissions, highlighting its critical role in reshaping the country’s environmental trajectory.

The study points to a fundamental tension at the core of South Africa’s development pathway. While economic expansion and globalisation remain central policy priorities, their environmental consequences are becoming increasingly evident. The findings indicate that incremental or conventional forms of innovation are unlikely to deliver meaningful environmental gains without deliberate redirection. Achieving long-term climate targets, including ambitions for carbon neutrality, will require targeted policies that actively promote clean energy adoption and support the development of genuinely sustainable technologies.

Although the research focuses specifically on South Africa and a defined set of variables, it offers broader insights for policymakers. The authors suggest that future work could incorporate additional factors such as urbanisation, foreign investment, and agricultural productivity, as well as examine other forms of pollution. Ultimately, the study underscores the need for coordinated policy action to decouple economic growth from environmental harm. Strengthening investment in renewable energy, reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and implementing regulatory measures such as carbon pricing will be essential steps in aligning development with environmental sustainability.

More information: Frank Ranganai Matenda et al, The influence of economic growth, fossil and renewable energy, technological innovation, and globalisation on carbon dioxide emissions in South Africa, Carbon Research. DOI: 10.1007/s44246-024-00155-8

Journal information: Carbon Research Provided by Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University