A new study from Stanford University finds that the future economic consequences of carbon dioxide emissions released decades ago are expected to exceed far the damage already experienced. Published on March 25 in Nature, the research assigns monetary values to the harm caused over time by emissions from both countries and major corporations. The findings highlight how past emissions continue to generate long-lasting and escalating economic costs across the globe, underscoring the enduring nature of climate-related damage.

The analysis estimates that emissions from the United States since 1990 have already resulted in more than $10 trillion in global economic losses. These impacts are widely distributed, with substantial harm observed in developing economies, including approximately $330 billion in Brazil and $500 billion in India. Notably, a significant portion of the damage—around $3 trillion—has also occurred within the United States itself, while Europe has borne roughly $1.4 trillion in losses. According to lead author Marshall Burke, U.S. emissions have had measurable negative effects on domestic economic output, although lower-income regions experience disproportionately greater impacts relative to their economic size.

The study also examines emissions linked to corporate activity, particularly those associated with Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest corporate emitter. Emissions tied to its oil production and use between 1988 and 2015 have already generated about $3 trillion in global damages by 2020. If these emissions persist in the atmosphere through the end of the century, the total damage could rise dramatically to an estimated $64 trillion. Burke emphasises that as long as carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere, it continues to drive warming, and that warming in turn produces ongoing economic harm.

The researchers frame these impacts using the concept of “loss and damage,” which refers to the costs that cannot be prevented through emissions reductions or adaptation strategies. This idea is increasingly relevant in international climate negotiations and legal discussions around liability. Co-author Solomon Hsiang compares greenhouse gas emissions to unmanaged waste, noting that societies typically pay for waste disposal because it imposes costs on others. In contrast, the accumulated emissions in the atmosphere represent an unpaid and growing liability, with damages effectively compounding over time.

The study also explores the role of carbon removal technologies in reducing long-term costs, emphasising the importance of timing. The findings suggest that if carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for 25 years before being removed, approximately half of its total expected damage has already occurred. Co-author Noah Diffenbaugh explains that because warming affects economic growth cumulatively, the duration of emissions in the atmosphere is a critical factor in evaluating both past damages and the effectiveness of potential interventions.

Compared to an earlier version of the research released in 2023, the updated estimates are significantly higher due to the inclusion of delayed and persistent economic effects from warming. The researchers note that extreme heat events can have long-lasting consequences, amplifying overall damage estimates when these long-term impacts are considered. While the study incorporates key economic indicators, it does not fully capture broader consequences such as biodiversity loss, cultural displacement, or certain climate risks like sea level rise and extreme weather events. As a result, the authors describe their estimates as conservative, suggesting that the true scale of climate-related economic harm is likely even greater.

More information: Marshall Burke et al, Quantifying climate loss and damage consistent with a social cost of carbon, Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10272-6

Journal information: Nature Provided by Stanford University