Reaching near-zero emissions worldwide will require far more than developing new clean technologies; it will demand a fundamental transformation in how these technologies are financed and supported. This challenge is particularly acute in industries such as aviation, where developing and deploying greener solutions remains expensive and uncertain. According to a commentary from the University of California, San Diego, published in Science, decarbonising aviation will depend not only on scientific innovation but also on reshaping the global investment landscape to manage risk more intelligently.
The paper, co-authored by David G. Victor—professor of innovation and public policy at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy—argues that aviation exemplifies a wider industrial problem. As one of the fastest-growing sources of greenhouse gas emissions, aviation suffers from chronic underinvestment in technologies that could yield the most significant climate benefits. “The sector shows the broader challenge of industrial decarbonisation,” Victor explained. “Too little capital is flowing toward the innovations with the highest potential impact.”
To bridge this gap, the researchers propose a framework that brings together investors, airlines, and R&D programmes in a coordinated effort to advance clean technologies. Victor notes that, despite global political turbulence, vast amounts of capital are available for clean-tech investment—but much of it lacks strategic direction. “What’s been missing is a framework to guide that capital toward the riskiest but most transformative innovations,” he said. At present, investors tend to focus on low-risk, incremental projects such as more efficient jet engines or recycled fuels. At the same time, the most disruptive and potentially transformative technologies struggle to attract support.
Central to the team’s proposal is a new analytical tool—the Aviation Sustainability Index (ASI)—designed to evaluate how various technologies or investments could reduce emissions while allowing for continued growth in air travel. By quantifying potential climate benefits, the ASI aims to help investors distinguish between projects that merely improve efficiency and those capable of revolutionising the sector. The researchers argue that such a method could ensure that funding decisions are informed by meaningful data rather than familiarity or short-term returns.
Their analysis also highlights a troubling trend: over the next decade, roughly one trillion dollars is expected to flow into aviation, yet the majority of that investment will make only minor efficiency improvements. Few investors are backing the kinds of breakthrough technologies—such as hydrogen propulsion or next-generation aircraft designs—that could genuinely transform the industry’s environmental footprint. “Cleaner flight is possible,” Victor said, “but it requires rethinking both risk and reward. We need institutions and incentives that prioritise innovation over incrementalism.”
More broadly, the commentary warns that lofty climate goals, such as “net zero by 2050,” risk undermining progress when they seem unattainable. Instead of setting distant targets, the authors advocate for immediate, practical action that reshapes real-world markets. By developing better tools to assess sustainability investments and by rewarding companies willing to take calculated risks, governments and investors can accelerate tangible progress. Ultimately, the authors conclude, the path to a cleaner aviation industry—and to industrial decarbonisation more generally—depends not just on invention, but on the courage to invest boldly in transformative change.
More information: David G. Victor et al, Mobilizing capital and technology for a clean aviation industry, Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.adu2458
Journal information: Science Provided by University of California – San Diego