Africa’s vehicle fleet is expected to grow faster than anywhere else in the world, with the total number of vehicles projected to double by 2050. The critical question is therefore not whether mobility will increase, but how that growth will be managed. New research led by ETH Zurich and the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), in collaboration with partners from Makerere University, the University of Port Harcourt and Stellenbosch University, suggests that electric vehicles combined with solar-powered, off-grid charging systems could become economically viable in many African countries well before 2040.
For years, most models assumed that internal combustion engine vehicles would dominate African transport systems through mid-century. According to lead author Bessie Noll, a senior researcher at ETH Zurich, these assumptions overlook recent technological and economic shifts. The study, published in Nature Energy, shows that under certain conditions, electric mobility can be feasible far earlier than commonly expected.
A central focus of the research is vehicle charging, a significant challenge in regions where electricity grids are unreliable or absent. The researchers analysed 52 African countries and more than 2,000 locations, modelling scenarios in which electric vehicles are charged using dedicated solar installations paired with stationary batteries. These systems operate independently of the grid, reflecting realities on the ground in many parts of the continent.
Falling costs have been a decisive factor. Solar power and battery storage have become significantly cheaper in recent years, while a growing supply of affordable electric vehicles—particularly from Chinese manufacturers—has entered the market. Electric motorbikes and e-scooters are already exceptionally economical. The study found that a compact solar system can meet the needs of a small car travelling around 50 kilometres per day, with charging costs accounting for only a small share of total vehicle expenses. In many locations, switching to electric two-wheelers already makes strong financial sense.
The research also highlights Africa’s diversity. Countries such as Botswana and South Africa, where financing conditions are relatively stable, could see electric vehicles become competitive sooner. In contrast, nations with high borrowing costs and greater investment risk may experience a slower transition. As Noll stresses, Africa is not a single market, and the point at which e-mobility becomes attractive varies widely across countries.
When compared with vehicles powered by synthetic fuels, electric cars perform far better. Even under optimistic assumptions, synthetic fuels remain costly and are better suited to sectors such as aviation and heavy industry rather than passenger transport in Africa.
According to the researchers, the main obstacle to broader adoption is financing rather than technology. High interest rates increase the burden of the higher upfront costs associated with electric vehicles. Measures such as government guarantees, new financing models or international support could significantly accelerate adoption while creating new economic opportunities, including local assembly and service jobs.
A related study in Nature Sustainability highlights a further challenge: the impact on public finances. Fuel taxes currently generate substantial government revenue, particularly in low-income countries. As electric vehicles replace petrol and diesel cars, early tax reforms and international support will be needed to avoid budget shortfalls. Together, the studies show that e-mobility in Africa is achievable, but its success will depend on thoughtful, coordinated policy choices.
More information: Bessie Noll et al, Battery-electric passenger vehicles will be cost-effective across Africa well before 2040, Nature Energy. DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01955-x
Journal information: Nature Energy Provided by ETH Zurich