Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) have developed a new monitoring tool designed to measure how quickly companies are moving towards climate-neutral energy use. Applied so far in a single country, the monitor reveals a mixed picture: while many firms are beginning to change their energy consumption patterns, an equally large number are lagging. Companies deeply embedded in fossil fuel-based systems face particularly significant obstacles when attempting to alter their trajectory, highlighting how uneven and fragile the energy transition currently is at the firm level.
Europe has set the ambitious goal of becoming climate-neutral by 2050, yet concrete progress within the real economy remains difficult to quantify. While there is substantial data on the expansion of renewable energy supply, such as wind power, grid infrastructure, and storage capacity, there has been little clarity on how rapidly companies themselves are adapting their operations. According to CSH President Stefan Thurner, no official figures are capturing how quickly firms are retrofitting facilities, replacing machinery, or electrifying industrial processes. This lack of insight has left policymakers effectively navigating without a reliable compass.
To address this gap, the CSH team developed an objective, data-driven method that draws on detailed energy consumption records for nearly all relevant companies within a country. In the pilot case of Hungary, the researchers reconstructed the energy use of more than 25,000 firms between 2020 and 2024, covering the majority of national gas and electricity consumption and roughly half of oil use. This comprehensive approach made it possible, for the first time, to directly observe how the energy transition is unfolding across the business sector rather than inferring progress from aggregate statistics.
The results suggest that the transition is barely taking hold. Around half of the companies increased their share of low-carbon electricity during the study period, but the other half either stagnated or increased their reliance on fossil fuels. In some cases, firms doubled down on gas and oil rather than moving away from them. As a result, the overall pace of change remains slow. If current trends were to continue unchanged, the share of low-carbon energy in company consumption would reach only about 20 per cent by 2050, far short of what is required to meet climate targets.
The study also sheds light on why some companies switch while others do not. Within almost every subsector, some firms rely heavily on low-carbon electricity and others that use almost none, suggesting that technical feasibility is rarely the main barrier. Instead, economic factors appear decisive. Companies that spend a large proportion of their revenue on fossil fuels are significantly less likely to invest in electrification. In contrast, those with higher electricity costs relative to revenue are more inclined to continue electrifying. This points to a lock-in effect, where existing investments and perceived risks make change difficult without targeted support and clear policy signals.
Company size matters as well. Smaller firms, measured by total energy consumption, are less likely to shift away from fossil fuels, whereas larger, more energy-intensive companies tend to increase their electricity share more readily. Looking ahead, the researchers modelled alternative futures. If companies currently falling behind were to adopt the strategies already used by frontrunners in their sector, low-carbon energy could account for up to 70 per cent of consumption by 2050. Without such a shift, fossil fuels would still dominate. The findings underline the need for similar monitoring systems across Europe, enabling early, targeted intervention so that the 2050 climate-neutrality goal remains within reach.
More information: Johannes Stangl et al, Using firm-level supply chain networks to measure the speed of the energy transition, Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-69358-4
Journal information: Nature Communications Provided by Complexity Science Hub