For many years, global rankings have judged nations by how competitive their industries appear to be. Yet new research from the University of Surrey suggests that the method used to make those comparisons may not be telling the whole story. The study argues that the United Nations’ standard index for measuring manufacturing power can sometimes be misleading. Its simple weighting system may hide countries’ real strengths and weaknesses, giving some an undeserved advantage while downplaying others’ achievements.
Published in the Journal of the Operational Research Society, the Surrey-led study introduces a new model that aims to paint a more accurate picture of industrial performance. Instead of relying on fixed, subjective weightings, the researchers used advanced data analysis to create fairer benchmarks. This approach compares nations in a way that better reflects real-world outcomes, identifying those that have genuinely improved their manufacturing capabilities rather than those that appear successful only because of outdated or unbalanced measures.
The team tested their model using data from 153 countries across 2016 and 2021, examining manufacturing output, technological sophistication, and export performance. Their analysis uncovered patterns that traditional methods overlook. Some economies that had appeared strong in past rankings were found to benefit from skewed scoring systems, while others—particularly emerging industrial powers—proved far more competitive than earlier data suggested.
Professor Ali Emrouznejad, Director of the Centre for Business Analytics in Practice at the University of Surrey, led the project. “Our model challenges the way industrial competitiveness has been ranked for years,” he said. “The current global index can reward countries for the wrong reasons. We’ve developed a method that reflects reality—accounting for technology, trade, and productivity in a balanced way. This helps governments understand their true position and make better-informed policy choices.”
Their model could become a valuable tool for policymakers and development agencies. By offering a fairer and more transparent view of industrial progress, it helps identify areas where investment and innovation can deliver real results. Rather than simply celebrating rankings, governments can use these insights to make targeted improvements that raise productivity and build long-term competitiveness.
As Professor Emrouznejad explained, the implications reach well beyond academia. “By making competitiveness assessments fairer and more transparent, our study could reshape the way global institutions, including the UN and OECD, compare and support industrial growth.” If adopted widely, this new framework could redefine how success is measured in the world economy—moving away from numbers that flatter and toward metrics that reveal actual progress.
More information: Ali Emrouznejad et al, Redefining competitive industrial performance indicator: a multiplicative data envelopment analysis approach, Journal of the Operational Research Society. DOI: 10.1080/01605682.2025.2554746
Journal information: Journal of the Operational Research Society Provided by University of Surrey