Three years ago, when Nayib Bukele, the President of El Salvador, initiated a contentious crime suppression programme, it inadvertently shed light on a pressing question central to U.S. immigration policy: to what extent do crime and violence drive emigration from Central America to the United States? The answer, as revealed by a recent study from the Bush School’s Mosbacher Institute for Trade, Economics, and Public Policy, is quite substantial. The study showed that Bukele’s measures, which significantly lowered the murder rate in El Salvador, correspondingly decreased the number of apprehensions and expulsions at the U.S. border by 45% to 67%. The research posits that a nation experiencing less violent crime tends to produce fewer migrants. This significant finding was published in the Journal of Development Economics, a leading publication in the field.

The Mosbacher Institute has also released a related article in The Takeaway, a series aimed at making their research accessible to the broader public. This piece complements their more detailed academic research, offering insights into the broader implications of their findings. Previous studies have indicated that safety concerns are a significant factor driving people from Central America to emigrate. However, definitive conclusions were elusive as safety issues were often intertwined with economic factors, such as the search for better job opportunities and material well-being. Bukele’s drastic measure to detain suspected gang members simplified this complex issue by leaving economic conditions unchanged and isolating the decrease in crime as the sole variable affecting migration, according to the findings of this study.

The study’s authors carefully note that they do not endorse such heavy-handed approaches to crime control. Bukele’s actions have been widely criticised internationally for allegedly violating civil liberties, including accusations of jailing individuals indiscriminately without due process. The study emphasises the importance of addressing organised crime but advocates that such actions should be carried out with respect for human rights. Raymond Robertson, one of the study’s authors and the director of the Mosbacher Institute, highlighted the necessity for regional cooperation to tackle migration and organised crime, suggesting that revisions to restrictive U.S. trade agreements with the region might be beneficial.

The issue of immigration is deeply embedded in the social and political fabric of the United States. It remains a pivotal issue domestically and in other industrialised nations grappling with questions of identity, opportunity, justice, and security. According to the study, there were more than 280 million international migrants in 2020, including significant populations in Europe and the United States. The U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported more than 2 million border encounters annually from 2021 to 2023, mainly along the southwestern U.S. border, underlining the ongoing challenges of managing large-scale human movement.

The study terms the migration issue as a ‘border crisis’, pushing the topic to the forefront of U.S. policy debates, notably influencing the 2024 election and prompting a search for understanding the ‘root causes’ of migration. Although violent crime has been suspected to play a role in driving migration, previous research provided limited evidence. By examining the period following Bukele’s declaration of a ‘state of exception’ in March 2022, the Mosbacher study offers a more transparent, broader view by utilising this ‘natural experiment’ where other variables were constant.

Before the 2022 crackdown, Bukele had already implemented a violence-reduction strategy that included bolstering security forces and prison sanctions alongside social programs aimed at curbing gang recruitment by supporting vulnerable populations. This was followed by a drastic spike in violence in March 2022, which resulted in 87 deaths over three days. In response, security forces detained nearly all those suspected of gang affiliations or organised crime activities, with the study documenting an arrest tally of 75,163 individuals. Following these measures, the homicide rate in El Salvador plummeted from 18 per 100,000 people in 2021 to 2.4 per 100,000 in 2023, marking one of the lowest levels in recent history. This dramatic reduction in homicides directly correlated with a decline in migration to the U.S. border, illustrating the impact of improved security on emigration patterns. On the policy front, U.S. administrations have adopted varying strategies to address immigration challenges. The Biden administration focused on enhancing economic conditions in Central American nations to reduce migration by providing better job opportunities and improving living standards, thereby hoping to deter people from undertaking dangerous journeys to the U.S.

Conversely, the Trump administration concentrated on punitive measures against Latin American drug cartels and increased deportations. Furthermore, it was reported that the Trump administration negotiated a deal with El Salvador to accommodate migrants and incarcerated U.S. citizens. The researchers from the Mosbacher Institute advocate for a balanced policy approach to Central American migration, which integrates security measures with economic and social reforms designed to bolster community resilience. Although El Salvador has seen a reduction in both violent crime and emigration, the study’s authors caution against other nations adopting Bukele’s heavy-handed tactics, underscoring that their analysis does not extend to the broader human rights concerns and legal and ethical issues raised by such measures.

More information: Raymond Robertson et al, Is crime a “root cause” of Central American emigration? Evidence from El Salvador, Journal of Development Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103456

Journal information: Journal of Development Economics Provided by Texas A&M University