Amid the rising trend towards self-reliance and the tightening of trade barriers, a new study by research teams from the University of Göttingen and the University of Edinburgh raises concerns about the potential impact on global diet quality and sustainability. The study published in the journal Nature Food examined how 186 countries can sustain their populations using only domestically produced food. The findings suggest that many nations face significant challenges in achieving self-sufficiency, with potentially severe implications for nutrition and food security.
The researchers focused on seven essential food groups identified by the World Wildlife Fund’s Livewell diet, a healthy and sustainable eating model. Their analysis revealed that only one in seven countries manages to be self-sufficient in at least five of these critical food groups, with most of these nations located in Europe and South America. Contrastingly, regions such as the Caribbean, West Africa, and the Gulf states struggle to produce even a single essential food group at sufficient levels. Six countries, primarily in the Middle East, were found to be unable to produce enough of even one of these core food groups to meet their own needs.
Guyana emerged as a unique case, the only country to achieve complete self-sufficiency across all seven food groups. At the same time, China and Vietnam closely followed, meeting the threshold in six groups each. However, substantial gaps were noted in producing key nutrients, particularly protein sources. For instance, despite Europe’s robust agricultural output, many African countries remain heavily dependent on imports to meet their meat and dairy requirements. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, for example, produces only about 15% of its national demand for meat, highlighting a significant nutritional shortfall.
The study also identified a widespread deficit in nutrient-rich plant proteins, such as legumes, nuts, and seeds. Fewer than half of the countries examined produce enough legumes to meet domestic demand, and only a quarter achieve sufficiency in vegetable production. These findings underscore a critical imbalance, with some regions producing far more than they consume while others rely heavily on imports to cover basic nutritional needs.
Another concerning aspect highlighted by the researchers is the heavy reliance of some countries on a single trading partner for essential food imports, increasing their vulnerability to supply chain disruptions. This dependency is especially evident among smaller and island nations, where more than half of all food imports often come from a single source. For instance, many Central American and Caribbean countries rely primarily on the United States for starchy staples like wheat and maise. In contrast, several European and Central Asian nations similarly depend on a single supplier for legumes, nuts, and seeds.
Dr Jonas Stehl, the study’s lead author and a PhD researcher at the University of Göttingen, emphasised the importance of global trade in ensuring nutritional security. International food trade and cooperation are essential for healthy and sustainable diets. However, heavy reliance on imports from single countries can leave nations vulnerable,” he stated. “Building resilient food supply chains is imperative for ensuring public health.”
The findings from this study underscore the need for a balanced approach to food security, one that recognises the vital role of domestic production and international trade. As countries strive for greater self-reliance, policymakers must also consider the risks of isolation and the benefits of a diversified supply chain, ensuring that food systems remain robust in the face of global challenges.
More information: Jonas Stehl et al, Gap between national food production and food-based dietary guidance highlights lack of national self-sufficiency, Nature Food. DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01173-4
Journal information: Nature Food Provided by University of Göttingen