Artificial Intelligence (AI) driven cyberattacks pose unprecedented risks to global economies, supply chains, and international trade, as detailed in a forthcoming study from Risk Analysis. Unlike traditional cyber threats relying on manual or scripted methods, AI-driven attacks leverage machine learning algorithms to enhance their effectiveness, stealth, and adaptability. These attacks autonomously learn and evolve strategies based on real-time feedback and environmental changes, presenting a dynamic challenge for cybersecurity.

The study uses simulation scenarios to explore the potential impacts of AI-driven cyberattacks on economies heavily reliant on digital technologies and interconnected supply chains. It reveals significant economic repercussions, including natural GDP declines, trade route disruptions, and fluctuations in trade prices and volumes across various regions. Major economies like China, the U.S., the U.K., and the E.U., which are deeply integrated into global networks, are particularly vulnerable.

Economically, the study depicts varying degrees of GDP reduction under different cyber threat scenarios. Even a low-level cyber threat with limited breaches could lead to minor decreases in real GDP, ranging from 0.02% to 0.25%. Countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea, with substantial involvement in world trade and intra-industry solid connections, may experience slightly higher declines. In contrast, a high-level cyber threat scenario results in more pronounced economic disruptions, potentially causing significant GDP reductions in major economies like the U.S., the U.K., the E.U., China, Japan, and India.

The impact extends beyond GDP to trade prices, where all regions experience deteriorating terms of trade following an AI cyberattack. Export prices rise less than import prices, particularly affecting economies heavily reliant on digital technologies and interconnected supply chains. The U.S. may see sharper declines in terms of trade due to its high dependency on exports and digital infrastructure. Moreover, trade routes are disrupted in high-level cyberattack scenarios, prompting major trading partners like China and the U.S. to seek alternative routes, benefiting intermediary countries such as India, Japan, and North and Latin American nations.

The findings underscore the urgent need for global efforts to enhance cyber resilience and mitigate the far-reaching impacts of AI-driven cyber threats on the interconnected global trade ecosystem. The study strongly advocates for proactive measures such as adaptable production systems, diversified trade partnerships, and robust cybersecurity infrastructure to mitigate the adverse effects of cyberattacks. Dr Sherif Elgendy, a researcher involved in the study, emphasizes the critical role of preparedness in combating digital warfare, suggesting that incorporating cyber resilience measures can significantly mitigate the negative consequences highlighted in the study.

This research illuminates AI-driven cyberattacks’ multifaceted and pervasive nature on global economies, supply chains, and trade networks. It highlights the need for concerted global efforts to bolster cyber resilience and safeguard the interconnected systems that underpin modern economies. By taking proactive steps to enhance cybersecurity preparedness and international cooperation, stakeholders can mitigate the potentially catastrophic impacts of AI-driven cyber threats and navigate the evolving landscape of digital warfare more effectively.

More information: Rehab Osman et al, Interconnected and resilient: A CGE analysis of AI-driven cyberattacks in global trade, Risk Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/risa.14321

Journal information: Risk Analysis Provided by Society for Risk Analysis