Climate change and economic disparity are intricately linked, posing a mutual risk of escalating one another if not effectively managed. A recent study in Nature Climate Change illuminates this essential connection, utilizing data from eight comprehensive Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore how climate policies and climate risks affect distribution. The research offers compelling evidence that climate strategies consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement can simultaneously combat climate change and diminish long-term inequality.

Johannes Emmerling, a senior scientist at the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), spearheaded the study, which projects an increase in internal national inequalities due to climate change, with the Gini index expected to rise by an average of 1.4 points by the year 2100. Nonetheless, the adoption of ambitious climate measures, such as carbon pricing, could substantially decrease this rise in inequality over time. The findings indicate that an equitable redistribution of carbon revenues among the populace could balance the short-term economic burdens and lower the Gini index by almost 2 points.

Emmerling articulates that this research underscores the dual potential of well-crafted policy measures to address climate change and economic inequality among contemporary society’s foremost challenges. He expresses optimism that demonstrating the immediate advantages of redistributing carbon revenues to poorer households while promoting a stable climate trajectory will equip policymakers with a strategic guide for crafting more equitable and politically viable climate policies.

This pioneering comparison of multiple models reveals that although initial climate policies might trigger a temporary increase in inequality, thoughtfully designed redistributive mechanisms have the potential to counteract this effect and enhance social justice.

Emmerling further notes the study’s timeliness as nations globally strive to achieve climate objectives without worsening inequality. He highlights the critical role of intelligent policy formulation in ensuring that the dividends of climate initiatives are distributed fairly.

Concluding the discussion, Massimo Tavoni, the study’s co-author and the director of the European Institute on Economics and the Environment at CMCC, emphasizes the significance of aligning climate safety with climate justice. He points out that this project addresses a vital research area and proves collaborative research’s impact on guiding decisions in high-stakes arenas.

More information: Johannes Emmerling et al, A multi-model assessment of inequality and climate change, Nature Climate Change. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-024-02151-7

Journal information: Nature Climate Change Provided by CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change