Global methane emissions are continuing to rise with no signs of slowing, according to a major new international study. Researchers found that global trade alone contributes around 30% of the methane circulating in the atmosphere, intensifying the greenhouse gas burden that is heating the planet. With shifting patterns of trade, transactions between developing nations—so-called South-South exchanges—now dominate supply chains. Asia and the developing Pacific region have emerged as the largest emitters, their rapid industrialisation and population growth driving emissions upwards.

The study, published today (3 September) in Nature Communications, provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of methane emissions. Covering 164 countries and 120 sectors between 1990 and 2023, the work was led by teams at the Universities of Birmingham and Groningen. Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas, with a warming potential around 80 times greater than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The authors stress that reducing methane now offers one of the fastest ways to curb global heating in the near term.

The findings reveal a sharp contrast between developed and developing economies. Wealthier nations have managed to cut methane emissions while still achieving economic growth, mainly through gains in production efficiency and cleaner technologies. By contrast, developing regions are experiencing rapid increases. Lead author Professor Yuli Shan, from the University of Birmingham, highlighted the urgency: “Methane has a short atmospheric lifespan, which means reductions today can have an immediate impact. Our findings underscore the need for coordinated global action, especially in developing regions where emissions are rising fastest.”

The research also pinpoints sectors that offer the most significant opportunities for reductions. Fertiliser production stands out as an area in need of urgent attention, alongside oil and gas extraction, where advanced leak detection technologies could play a decisive role. Livestock farming, a significant source of methane, could benefit from innovations in feed formulation and waste management. The study further notes the importance of consumption choices—such as reducing red meat intake—as a means of cutting demand for methane-intensive products.

Co-corresponding author Professor Klaus Hubacek, from the University of Groningen, emphasised that policymakers must look at supply chains in their entirety. “This study provides a roadmap for policymakers to integrate methane into national climate strategies. It’s not just about where emissions occur, but why—and that requires looking at the entire supply chain,” he said. Using the latest global trade and environmental accounts dataset, the team showed how shifts in trade flows have pushed emissions into developing nations, where technological efficiency is often lower.

Despite these challenges, the study points to encouraging progress in technology and efficiency. Between 1998 and 2023, the global average methane emission coefficient dropped by nearly 67%, reflecting advances in energy systems and cleaner production methods. Yet methane has already contributed about 30% to global warming since pre-industrial times, and its role in air pollution causes around one million premature deaths annually. For the authors, the message is clear: reducing methane offers an immediate and effective climate solution, but it demands collective global action across trade, production, and consumption alike.

More information: Yuli Shan et al, Global methane footprints growth and drivers 1990-2023, Nature Communications. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-63383-5

Journal information: Nature Communications Provided by University of Birmingham