With only five years left before the 2030 deadline for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a new international study reveals a sharply uneven pattern of progress since the goals were adopted in 2015. While some areas continue to advance, others that initially appeared well-positioned are now stagnating or moving backwards, raising concerns about the feasibility of meeting global targets within the remaining timeframe.

Published recently in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the study shows that SDGs with high initial benchmark scores have, in many cases, stalled or deteriorated. In contrast, indicators that began from lower baseline levels have continued to register steady gains. Based on current trajectories, the authors caution that most countries are unlikely to meet their 2030 SDG commitments without substantial changes in policy, investment, and international cooperation.

The analysis highlights stark contrasts across goal areas. Indicators related to Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure (SDG 9) rank highest globally, reflecting sustained investment in industrial modernisation and scientific capacity. By contrast, Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3) has experienced the most significant setbacks, despite relatively strong starting conditions. Declines in vaccine coverage and slowed or reversed progress in controlling infectious diseases have been observed not only in low-income regions but also across developed economies.

According to the study’s authors, this divergence points to a more profound structural imbalance in global development. Technological and industrial advances have driven progress in some domains, yet long-standing weaknesses in public health systems and preventive care have been exposed and exacerbated by recent shocks. The findings suggest that technological progress alone cannot compensate for underinvestment in core social infrastructure, particularly as countries confront overlapping pressures from pandemics, conflict, and economic uncertainty.

At the same time, the study finds encouraging evidence that low-baseline indicators can improve rapidly under the right conditions. Several countries with modest starting points in 2015 have made substantial gains in areas such as education, safety, and social inclusion, demonstrating that meaningful transformation is possible even in resource-constrained settings. Conversely, indicators with high initial scores—typically between 70 and 90 per cent—are now more likely to stagnate or regress, reflecting weaker follow-through, complacency, and vulnerability to external shocks.

Looking ahead, the authors project that the global SDG score will reach only around 63 per cent by 2030, with several fragile and conflict-affected countries remaining well below the halfway mark. While a small number of countries continue to set international benchmarks in areas such as gender equality and global partnerships, the overall picture points to widening gaps and mounting implementation challenges. Although fully achieving all SDGs within the remaining five years will be difficult, the researchers emphasise that incremental progress remains vital and that the SDGs continue to serve as the central global framework for advancing a more sustainable and equitable future.

More information: Qiang Xing et al, Country-specific progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals: Past, present, and prospects, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2524299122

Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Provided by Chinese Academy of Sciences Headquarters