Parkinson’s disease is a progressive neurological disorder affecting movement, cognition, and daily functioning. As China’s population ages, the number of people living with the disease and demand for long-term care are expected to rise. Previous Chinese studies have focused mainly on direct medical spending or short-term costs to patients and families, leaving the broader economic consequences less understood.
To address this gap, a new study published in Science Bulletin assessed the long-term economic burden of Parkinson’s disease across 31 mainland provinces from 2020 to 2040. The research team was led by Dr. Maigeng Zhou from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with Prof. Simiao Chen from Heidelberg University and Peking Union Medical College.
The researchers combined multiple data sources within a health-augmented macroeconomic model (HMM) to examine how Parkinson’s disease affects the wider economy. Unlike traditional cost-of-illness studies, which typically calculate medical expenses and short-term productivity losses, the model captures interconnected pathways through which disease can influence long-term economic growth.
Deaths from Parkinson’s disease reduce the labour force, while disability among surviving patients can contribute to earlier retirement, lower labour force participation, absenteeism, fewer working hours, and reduced productivity. Together, these effects weaken labour supply and human capital accumulation, with consequences extending beyond individual patients and their families.
Treatment expenditures can also redirect household and social resources away from savings and productive investments, including education and infrastructure, slowing physical capital accumulation. At the same time, reduced labour supply and productivity can lower GDP, leaving fewer resources for future savings and investment. By capturing these cumulative effects, the model estimates changes in long-term economic output.
The study estimated that Parkinson’s disease could result in a cumulative macroeconomic loss of approximately CNY 473 billion between 2020 and 2040, measured in constant 2024 prices. This represents about 0.017% of China’s projected GDP over the period, equivalent to an average economic burden of CNY 329 per person.
The burden varied substantially across provinces. Jiangsu was projected to experience the largest economic loss, at approximately CNY 42 billion, followed by Guangdong at CNY 36 billion and Shandong at CNY 35 billion. Heilongjiang had the highest burden relative to provincial GDP, at 0.029%, while Shanghai had the highest per-capita burden, at CNY 868. In most provinces, slower physical capital accumulation contributed more to the economic loss than reductions in labour supply.
The researchers highlighted the importance of tailoring policy responses to regional circumstances. Areas with limited neurological services could prioritise earlier recognition, access to essential medicines, stronger referral systems, and continuity of care. More economically developed provinces with large absolute losses could focus on preventing disability, strengthening advanced disease management, expanding rehabilitation, and optimising specialist services. Policies reflecting local disease burden, economic capacity, and healthcare resources could help reduce both the health burden of Parkinson’s disease and its longer-term economic consequences.
More information: Yuheng Luo et al, Estimating the economic burden of Parkinson’s disease in China, 2020–2040: a projection and health-augmented macroeconomic modelling study, Science Bulletin. DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2026.08.035
Journal information: Science Bulletin Provided by Science China Press