Monthly Archives: October 2025

Voters Across Europe Turn Against Tariffs

A new academic study has revealed that there is little public appetite in Europe for the imposition of trade tariffs, even when such measures are presented as a direct response to Donald Trump’s protectionist trade policies in the United States. Drawing on survey responses from 5,500 participants across Germany and the United Kingdom, the research found a striking and consistent rejection of tariffs under all circumstances. Whether framed as a means of protecting domestic industries, funding green investments, or countering US trade barriers, tariffs failed to gain popular support. This finding runs counter to a widespread political assumption that voters are increasingly turning towards economic nationalism in times of uncertainty and global competition.

The study was conducted jointly by researchers from Uppsala University, the University of Reading, and the University of Southampton, in the context of the US government’s 2025 decision to impose new tariffs on European and British imports. These circumstances provided a timely opportunity to examine whether European voters were inclined to support reciprocal or retaliatory trade policies. Using two extensive opinion surveys, the researchers sought to understand not just what Europeans think about tariffs in general, but also the reasoning behind their preferences when faced with different policy trade-offs. Across all tested scenarios, the conclusion was unequivocal: European voters overwhelmingly prefer alternative economic tools to tariffs, even when the latter are presented as socially or environmentally justified.

Michal Grahn, the study’s lead author and a political scientist, noted that the consistency of opposition surprised the research team. “Even when tariffs were presented as a way of financing climate action, people preferred other economic solutions,” Grahn explained. This resistance to tariffs, even in the face of persuasive justifications, suggests that European publics may view such measures as inherently destabilising or economically counterproductive. Rather than interpreting tariffs as an expression of national strength or sovereignty, voters appear to associate them with uncertainty, higher consumer prices, and the potential for escalating trade conflicts. These findings stand in sharp contrast to assumptions that economic protectionism naturally appeals to the working and middle classes in industrialised nations.

Methodologically, the research employed conjoint experiments — a sophisticated survey technique designed to simulate the kinds of trade-offs voters face in actual policy or electoral contexts. Participants were asked to evaluate and choose between various hypothetical economic policy packages, each combining different approaches to trade, investment, and environmental funding. This method allows scholars to determine how much weight respondents assign to specific policy features when making decisions. Nearly 4,000 participants were surveyed in Germany and approximately 1,500 in the UK, all recruited through well-established online panels to ensure demographic representativeness in terms of age, gender, education, and region. By directly comparing tariffs to other measures such as subsidies or international cooperation, the study captured not only public preferences but also the underlying logic guiding those choices.

The results demonstrated a clear pattern: trade tariffs are not a politically advantageous issue in either Germany or the UK. Rather than endorsing economic retaliation, European voters expressed a marked preference for stability, international collaboration, and policy predictability. According to the researchers, this preference reflects a broader cultural and political orientation towards moderation in European politics. Despite the rise of populist movements across the continent, which often champion nationalist and protectionist economic narratives, the general public remains sceptical of measures that risk economic isolation or friction with key trading partners. As such, tariffs are unlikely to serve as a vote-winning strategy, even during periods of geopolitical tension or economic slowdown.

In their conclusion, the researchers emphasised the broader policy implications of their findings. “Even at a time of global uncertainty, there is no widespread support for responding to US protectionism with tariffs of our own. There is an idea that tougher trade policies are popular, but our results show the opposite. European voters seem to favour caution over conflict,” Grahn observed. This suggests that while policymakers may feel pressure to adopt assertive trade positions for strategic or symbolic reasons, such approaches may run counter to the preferences of their electorates. Ultimately, the study highlights a persistent divide between political rhetoric and public opinion: while leaders may invoke the language of protectionism to appear decisive, the European public continues to prioritise economic stability, cooperation, and a rules-based international order over confrontation and retaliation.

More information: Michal Grahn et al, A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe? Journal of European Public Policy. DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2025.2571062

Journal information: Journal of European Public Policy Provided by Uppsala University

Storing carbon in forests and soil could ‘secure long-term climate stability’ – but lasting impact demands deep underground capture

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A team of researchers led by the University of Cambridge has developed a new framework to assess whether carbon removal portfolios can effectively limit global warming over centuries. The approach distinguishes between buying credits to offset risk and claiming actual net-negative emissions, offering a way to evaluate long-term climate benefits. Published in Joule, the study presents a method to integrate both nature-based and technology-driven approaches into cohesive climate strategies aimed at stabilising temperatures over the long term.

According to the researchers, the findings could transform how carbon removal is managed, showing that reforestation and soil carbon projects can play a meaningful role when combined with more permanent technological solutions. This challenges the widespread belief that only geological storage, such as deep underground carbon injection, can secure durable climate benefits. However, the team warns that existing schemes like California’s forest carbon offsets programme may be underprepared for risks extending beyond the next few decades.

The study introduces the idea of maintaining a “carbon buffer” to manage long-term storage risks. Researchers recommend storing roughly two tonnes of carbon for every tonne offset in portfolios that include nature-based solutions, arguing that such buffers are adequate in most cases. Yet, for portfolios dominated by nature-based projects, they suggest that far larger buffers—up to nine tonnes for each tonne emitted—might be necessary. These extreme ratios, they caution, would make some portfolios economically unsustainable.

Lead author Dr Conor Hickey of Cambridge’s Department of Land Economy explains that companies such as Microsoft and Meta are already investing billions in carbon removal portfolios, but lack clear methods to judge their long-term impact. Hickey says the new risk management framework provides one of the first reliable ways for portfolio managers to ensure that their strategies contribute to sustained temperature stabilisation. He adds that nature-based carbon storage, when properly balanced with technological methods, has a more significant role in climate mitigation than critics typically acknowledge.

Co-author Professor Myles Allen of the University of Oxford stresses that proper climate stability requires geological storage in the long run. He notes that to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals, all offset schemes should aim to transition entirely to carbon dioxide removal with geological storage by mid-century. While biological approaches like afforestation and biochar are cost-effective and more accessible, they face higher reversal risks from factors such as wildfires or land-use changes.

The researchers’ framework shows that increasing carbon removal today can compensate for future risks, ensuring climate stability for centuries. Their analysis supports blending costly but permanent methods, such as Direct Air Capture, with cheaper nature-based options. By incorporating well-designed buffers and diversification, they argue, carbon portfolios can balance affordability with durability—helping societies reach and maintain net zero while preserving flexibility in how carbon is captured and stored.

More information: Conor Hickey et al, Carbon storage portfolios for the transition to net zero, Joule. DOI: 10.1016/j.joule.2025.102164

Journal information: Joule Provided by University of Cambridge

WSU Researchers Discover that Positive Framing Drives Preference for Luxury Goods

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Consumers tend to favour higher-priced items when those products are associated with messages that emphasise an increase in positive qualities rather than a decrease in negative ones. This subtle shift in how information is presented—known as positive framing—can meaningfully influence buying behaviour, according to new research from Washington State University. The study reveals that when a product’s attributes are described in a way that highlights improvements or gains, consumers perceive a stronger and more justified relationship between quality and cost. In other words, framing a product’s value in favourable terms makes it easier for shoppers to see the higher price as reasonable or even desirable.

To illustrate this phenomenon, researchers created a scenario involving two pre-owned electric vehicles with different prices and battery capacities. One car had 80% of its battery life remaining and cost $40,000, while the other had 90% capacity left and cost $45,000. When these figures were presented positively—as increasing battery capacity aligned with a higher price—participants viewed the more expensive car as offering better value. However, when the same data were reframed negatively, focusing instead on how much battery life had been lost (20% versus 10%), this perception weakened. Despite both framings conveying identical factual information, consumers responded differently simply because one presented the relationship between cost and benefit as moving in the same direction, whereas the other described them as opposites.

Kunter Gunasti, associate professor of marketing at WSU’s Carson College of Business and coauthor of the study, refers to this concept as “relationship sign framing.” He explains that when price and product attributes are described as moving together—such as higher cost paired with higher performance—people naturally interpret the relationship as more meaningful. “Each extra dollar feels like it buys more benefit,” Gunasti said. Conversely, when the relationship is described as inverse, such as a higher price but less of a negative attribute, the link between cost and value feels weaker. Shoppers are therefore more likely to gravitate toward cheaper alternatives. This suggests that consumers not only assess what they are paying for but also how that information is presented, finding positive associations cognitively easier to process and more intuitively appealing.

To ensure this effect was not limited to a single type of purchase, the researchers replicated the experiment using a different product category: bike helmets. In one condition, the helmets were described by how much impact they absorbed—a positively framed attribute that increased with price. In the other, they were described by the effect transmitted to the wearer’s head—a negatively framed attribute that decreased with price. Although both framings communicated equivalent protection levels, participants again perceived greater value in the higher-priced helmets when the information was framed positively. This consistency across both new and used goods suggests that relationship sign framing is a general psychological principle that can influence consumer behaviour across various product types.

Interestingly, the study also found that the effect of positive framing was more pronounced for luxury or hedonic goods—items purchased for pleasure rather than practicality. Products such as holidays, designer clothes, or sports cars tend to elicit an emotional response, prompting buyers to focus on what they gain from the purchase. In these cases, positive framing magnified the appeal of high-end options, reinforcing the idea that higher prices signal greater enjoyment or quality. Conversely, when it came to everyday utilitarian goods like cleaning products, household appliances, or tyres, the effect diminished. Shoppers considering practical purchases appeared more cost-conscious and focused on what they were spending rather than what they might gain, making them less susceptible to framing influences.

The findings hold valuable implications for marketers seeking to tailor messages to different market segments. Brands positioned at the premium end of the market can benefit from positive framing, emphasising how an increase in desirable attributes—such as durability, comfort, or efficiency—justifies a higher price tag. Budget or value-oriented brands, on the other hand, might strategically use negative framing to weaken the perceived connection between cost and product quality, reinforcing the appeal of affordability. Beyond marketing, the study offers an important reminder for consumers as well: the way information is presented can shape perception, even when the facts remain unchanged. As Gunasti advises, a mindful shopper should mentally reframe product descriptions to see both positive and negative versions. Doing so helps neutralise the subtle bias introduced by framing and promotes more deliberate, informed decision-making in the marketplace.

More information: Kunter Gunasti et al, Relationship-sign framing: The sign of attribute relationships influences product preference via perceived relationship magnitude, Nature. DOI: 10.1007/s11002-025-09785-3

Journal information: Nature Provided by Washington State University

AI-driven creativity enhances virtual shopping journeys

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Art infusion theory, which suggests that displaying art in retail spaces can positively influence consumer behaviour, has now been extended to virtual environments. Cornell University professor So-Yeon Yoon, an expert in human-centred design, has demonstrated that algorithm-driven generative art can enhance how consumers perceive virtual retail stores. Her research found that these dynamic, AI-created installations improve perceptions of exclusivity and aesthetic pleasure, not only for luxury retailers but also for mass-market brands, effectively bridging the gap between high-end and mainstream retail experiences.

Yoon’s study, published in the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services under the title “Exploring the Impact of Generative Art in Virtual Stores: A Metaverse Study on Consumer Perception and Approach Intention,” provides empirical support for the idea that art’s psychological influence transcends the physical world. She observed that while art has traditionally been associated with exclusivity and luxury, generative art’s affordability, sustainability, and adaptability allow it to democratise the aesthetic appeal once reserved for high-end brands. By harnessing computational creativity, even mass-market retailers can now evoke sophistication and emotional engagement in their virtual spaces.

In the first of two experiments, Yoon and her team designed four virtual fashion stores—two representing mass-market retailers and two representing luxury ones. Each pair of stores was identical, except that one in each pair featured a generative art display: a constantly shifting black-and-white projection on a white wall. The other store had a plain wall. Among the 120 female participants, all averaging around 28 years of age, perceptions of attractiveness and luxury increased markedly when generative art was present. Surprisingly, the effect was more substantial in mass-market stores and among participants who were less familiar with art, suggesting that digital aesthetics can make even ordinary environments feel premium and engaging.

The second experiment, involving 90 female participants, compared static and dynamic forms of generative art to determine which produced stronger consumer responses. The results indicated that dynamic art—constantly evolving rather than fixed—generated greater perceptions of exclusivity and aesthetic pleasure, as well as stronger intentions to engage in electronic word-of-mouth (e-WOM) by sharing experiences online. This demonstrates that movement and unpredictability in digital design can heighten user attention and emotional resonance, encouraging both brand advocacy and customer engagement in virtual retail settings.

Yoon emphasised that while physical fine art installations might be impractical for large-scale retail operations, computer-generated art offers an affordable and sustainable alternative. Already prevalent at significant events and immersive exhibitions, generative art can be easily adapted for commercial applications, providing endless variations at little additional cost. Its dynamic nature keeps spaces visually stimulating and continually fresh, allowing retailers to enrich customer experience without the logistical or financial burdens of traditional artwork.

Looking ahead, Yoon envisions extending the use of generative art beyond retail, into contexts such as healthcare, assisted living, and retirement communities. She believes that the ever-changing, meditative qualities of generative visuals could enhance emotional well-being and create soothing environments in these settings. Describing it as a “living art form,” she argues that generative art represents a fusion of creativity and technology capable of improving both aesthetic and psychological experiences. Through her work, Yoon highlights how AI-driven design can redefine art’s role in modern life, turning it into a continuously evolving presence that shapes perception, mood, and behaviour across both digital and physical spaces.

More information: So-Yeon Yoon et al, Exploring the impact of generative art in virtual stores: A metaverse study on consumer perception and approach intention, Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services. DOI: 10.1016/j.jretconser.2025.104542

Journal information: Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services Provided by Cornell University

New journal urges evidence-led discussion on uniting energy innovation, environmental protection, and human development

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A distinguished energy scientist is calling for a revival of evidence-based thinking to guide how humanity balances global development, social welfare, and environmental protection. Professor Dongke Zhang of The University of Western Australia argues that the path forward must begin not with ideology or politics, but with open, scientific dialogue—one grounded in data, discovery, and critical reasoning rather than dogma or convenience. His appeal, detailed in a perspective piece for the inaugural issue of Energy and Environment Nexus, urges a return to intellectual humility in confronting the world’s intertwined crises of energy demand, climate change, and inequality.

Reflecting on over forty years in the fields of thermodynamics, combustion, and sustainability, Professor Zhang presents the “Energy and Environment Nexus” as both a conceptual and practical framework for reconciling humanity’s growing need for energy with the planet’s ecological limits. He stresses that energy systems are not isolated entities but are deeply enmeshed with social and environmental systems, each influencing and constraining the others. This triadic relationship, he argues, is too often oversimplified in public discourse. Energy, Zhang notes, is frequently conflated with power—an error that obscures the fundamental physics underpinning global energy challenges. “People talk about energy as if it were power,” he observes. “But they are not the same. Understanding this difference is key to building sustainable solutions.”

To clarify this complexity, Zhang distils his decades of experience into what he calls “Zhang’s Four Imperatives of Energy”: power intensity, energy density, cost, and scale. He proposes that these four pillars offer a rational foundation for all policy discussions surrounding energy production, distribution, and consumption. Each imperative encapsulates a core dimension of how energy operates within real-world systems—its physical potency, its economic feasibility, its scalability, and its environmental footprint. In Zhang’s view, the challenge of sustainable energy is not merely one of technology, but of integrating these imperatives into coherent, equitable systems that can sustain modern civilisation without exhausting the planet’s resources.

Central to Zhang’s argument is the belief that affordable, reliable, and clean energy lies at the heart of human progress. Without universal access to such energy, he contends, neither economic development nor environmental stewardship can succeed. Citing global inequalities, Zhang points out that nearly half of the world’s population continues to live below the poverty line, where access to energy remains scarce or unaffordable. This, he argues, represents not only an economic obstacle but also a moral imperative: “If it is not economically feasible, it is not sustainable.” True sustainability, he suggests, must address both human welfare and environmental resilience, acknowledging that one cannot be achieved at the expense of the other.

The article also delves into the contentious arena of climate discourse, urging readers to separate climate science from climate ideology. While firmly advocating continued scientific research into renewable energy and the Earth’s climate systems, Zhang warns against the dangers of oversimplification and the politicisation of science. “Science is a journey of discovery,” he writes. “It is not infallible, and it must always remain open to scrutiny.” His call is not for scepticism in the denialist sense, but for intellectual honesty—a recognition that robust science must evolve through questioning, testing, and debate, not through consensus imposed by ideology. In this spirit, Zhang champions an evidence-first approach to both policy and public understanding, where uncertainty is not dismissed but studied as part of the scientific process.

The creation of the Energy and Environment Nexus itself represents a significant step toward realising Zhang’s broader vision of interdisciplinary engagement. Founded by Southeast University in China, the journal aims to provide a global platform that unites science, engineering, economics, and policy under one banner of scholarly inquiry. It seeks to bridge the growing divide between environmental idealism and industrial pragmatism, offering space for rigorous, inclusive discussion on how humanity can secure energy security without compromising ecological sustainability. The publication symbolises a new intellectual meeting ground—one where diverse perspectives are tested against evidence, and where solutions are pursued through reason rather than rhetoric.

In closing his essay, Zhang articulates a philosophy that encapsulates both scientific curiosity and moral responsibility: “Science thrives on debate,” he writes. “Only by embracing open inquiry can we find the balance between economic growth, human well-being, and a healthy planet.” His words serve as both a warning and an invitation. The warning is against complacency in the face of global crises; the invitation is to rekindle the scientific spirit that once defined humanity’s most significant advances. Through the Energy and Environment Nexus, Zhang hopes to foster a new era of evidence-based collaboration—one in which truth is pursued not for political validation, but for the enduring prosperity of both people and planet.

More information: Dongke Zhang, On Energy and Environment Nexus: balancing economic development, social well-being, and ecological sustainability with science, Energy & Environment Nexus. DOI: 10.48130/een-0025-0009

Journal information: Energy & Environment Nexus Provided by Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University

Exploring the Consequences of the Bank of Japan’s Exchange-Traded Fund Interventions

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It is widely acknowledged that the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) purchase programme had a profound impact on Japan’s stock market. Analysts and investors have often argued that such large-scale interventions distorted market valuations, artificially elevating prices beyond fundamental levels. At the same time, the growing number of ETFs held by the BOJ was associated with increased activity in the securities lending market, where stocks are borrowed and lent, often for short selling. This relationship suggested that while the central bank’s actions influenced market prices, the market itself contained mechanisms that worked to restore efficiency and counterbalance these distortions.

A recent study led by Dr Junnosuke Shino, Associate Professor at Waseda University’s Faculty of International Research and Education, in collaboration with Dr Mitsuru Katagiri from Waseda’s Faculty of Commerce and Dr Koji Takahashi from the Bank of Japan’s Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, explores this dynamic in depth. Published in The Review of Asset Pricing Studies on 4 September 2025, their research sheds new light on the complex interaction between central bank policy and market forces. The authors reveal that the BOJ’s ETF purchases not only pushed up stock prices directly but also had significant ripple effects in the securities lending market, demonstrating how different parts of the financial system respond to large-scale policy interventions.

The researchers found that as the BOJ increased its ETF holdings, more shares became available for borrowing, making short selling easier. This rise in short-selling activity helped offset some of the upward pressure on stock prices caused by the BOJ’s purchases, weakening the initial price-boosting effect. Their findings show that the equity and lending markets are deeply interconnected, with ETFs acting as a bridge between the two. In this sense, the study provides evidence of the market’s self-correcting capacity—an adaptive response that maintains a degree of efficiency even under heavy central bank intervention.

What distinguishes this study is its empirical grounding in actual stock market data, lending real-world credibility to its conclusions. The authors highlight that the securities lending market plays a crucial role in moderating policy-driven distortions, ensuring that liquidity and price discovery are not entirely compromised. They also emphasise that central bank asset purchases influence financial markets through both direct and indirect channels, underscoring the need for policymakers to consider these wider effects when designing or unwinding such programmes. Given that the BOJ still holds tens of trillions of yen in ETF assets, these insights will be particularly valuable as Japan contemplates how to scale back its holdings without destabilising markets.

Beyond Japan, the study’s implications extend to global monetary authorities and investors alike. As other central banks experiment with unconventional policy tools, Japan’s experience offers a unique case study of how large-scale equity purchases interact with broader market mechanisms. For international investors, understanding the link between ETF holdings and securities lending can improve strategies for risk management and asset allocation. Ultimately, Dr Shino and his colleagues show that markets remain dynamic ecosystems: even in the face of extraordinary central bank intervention, they adapt, rebalance, and seek efficiency through interconnected channels that continue to shape the modern financial landscape.

More information: Mitsuru Katagiri et al, To Lend or Not to Lend: The Bank of Japan’s ETF Purchase Program and Securities Lending, The Review of Asset Pricing Studies. DOI: 10.1093/rapstu/raaf008

Journal information: The Review of Asset Pricing Studies Provided by Waseda University

China fast-tracks carbon market integration, merging local pilots into a globally connected framework

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The newly released research offers a detailed and multi-dimensional exploration of China’s carbon market integration, combining the analysis of 346 policy documents with 22 expert interviews. This empirical foundation allows the study to bridge policy design, institutional reform, and international alignment. Its overarching objective is to guide the coordination of the evolving local pilot carbon markets with the national unified system. The authors stress that effective integration must not merely consolidate administrative structures but should also deepen market efficiency, reduce emission abatement costs, and stimulate green innovation through competition and technological advancement. By positioning China’s carbon market reform within the global transition toward carbon neutrality, the research makes a compelling case for the use of market mechanisms as the principal means to balance growth with sustainability.

Against the backdrop of intensifying global carbon governance, particularly through mechanisms like the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), China’s carbon market stands at a critical juncture. CBAM, which imposes a levy on carbon-intensive imports, compels major economies, including China, to accelerate domestic carbon pricing reforms to maintain competitiveness. In this context, the study—jointly led by Professor Dai and Professor Pollitt—serves as a strategic blueprint for harmonising the regional carbon pilots with the national system. It highlights both the opportunities for China to lead in global climate governance and the challenges associated with aligning its policies to international norms of transparency and accountability. The researchers argue that China’s carbon market integration process is not simply a domestic economic reform, but a fundamental step in redefining its role within the international carbon economy.

Nevertheless, the study identifies several enduring structural and technical bottlenecks impeding the rapid expansion of China’s national carbon market. Chief among these are challenges related to Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems, which remain inconsistent across regions and sectors. The integrity of MRV is crucial to the credibility of emissions data, carbon pricing accuracy, and the overall trustworthiness of the market. The report also notes that while the EU’s CBAM sets a 2034 deadline for the maturation of China’s carbon trading infrastructure, achieving this will require substantial improvements in institutional capacity and standardisation. Yet, the authors are careful to point out that local pilot carbon markets continue to play an irreplaceable role through what they term “triple innovation functions” within a “dual-track coexistence model”: extending participation to small and medium enterprises, encouraging the development of carbon financial products, and serving as testing grounds for regulatory innovation.

The lead author of the study challenges three conventional assumptions often associated with China’s carbon market reform. First, the “domestic priority” assumption suggests that external pressures like CBAM primarily drive internal reform; second, the “system priority” notion assumes that local pilots exist only to support national-level legislation; and third, “technological determinism” posits that technological advancement or political endorsement alone can ensure market success. The authors contend that none of these are sufficient on their own. Instead, they propose that actual progress depends on the coordinated evolution of multi-level markets—local, regional, and national—that interact symbiotically rather than hierarchically. The national market should not seek to replace local pilots but rather integrate their innovative potential into a cohesive national framework that fosters adaptability, competition, and continuous learning.

From a policy standpoint, the study highlights why this research is essential for readers, policymakers, and investors alike. It positions the carbon market as a key instrument in China’s broader decarbonisation strategy—one capable of transforming traditional industries while spurring the growth of new low-carbon sectors. The researchers argue that as international carbon pricing systems like CBAM come into effect, China must expedite its own integration process to safeguard its industrial competitiveness and achieve its “dual carbon” goals—peaking emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. The study portrays carbon trading not just as an environmental policy but as an economic reform that can reshape production systems, incentivise green investment, and redefine China’s comparative advantage in a carbon-constrained global economy.

A significant finding of the research is the continued value of maintaining regional pilot carbon markets as laboratories of innovation. Rather than viewing them as transitional mechanisms destined for absorption into a centralised market, the authors argue that these pilots perform indispensable experimental functions. They enable the testing of carbon financial products, allow smaller enterprises to participate, and create space for flexible regulatory design. Such decentralised experimentation, when properly coordinated with the national system, can enrich China’s overall policy toolkit. By fostering competition between regional models and encouraging local innovation, the dual-track system enhances the robustness and resilience of the carbon market. This approach could serve as a model for other developing countries seeking to balance central oversight with local autonomy in the design of carbon pricing mechanisms.

Looking forward, the study recommends that China focus on three critical next steps: strengthening its MRV infrastructure to ensure transparency and data reliability, improving coordination between national and provincial policymakers, and aligning its carbon market governance with international best practices. The authors envision a future in which China operates a carbon pricing system characterised by measurable emission reductions, predictable price levels, and strong regulatory integrity. Such a system would allow China to emerge as a significant global hub for carbon trading, influencing international carbon prices and policy norms. The timing of this research is critical. It coincides with new national directives issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, which outline ambitious carbon market targets for 2027 and 2030. By mid-2025, China’s national carbon trading market had reached a cumulative transaction volume of 681 million tonnes and a total value of 46.784 billion yuan, with nearly full compliance among the 2,096 key emission units included. These achievements reflect steady progress but also underscore the importance of sustained reform. The researchers conclude that their findings should serve as an essential reference for policymakers seeking to navigate the intersection of domestic policy and global carbon pricing. This will ensure that China’s carbon market becomes a cornerstone of its green economic transformation and a benchmark for international climate governance.

More information: Chunyan Dai et al, Aligning China’s local and national carbon markets under global carbon pricing, Energy and Climate Management. DOI: 10.26599/ECM.2025.9400017

Journal information: Energy and Climate Management Provided by Tsinghua University Press

When Family Size Determines Learning Opportunities

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A newly published study in the Journal of Marketing provides fresh insights into how family size influences parental decision-making regarding education spending. Conducted by Phyllis Xue Wang of Renmin University of China, Ce Liang of the City University of Hong Kong, and Qiyuan Wang of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, the research explores how the number of children in a household affects both the type and motivation behind educational investments. By examining parents’ differing goals and tendencies toward perfectionism, the study reveals that the size of a family not only shapes financial priorities but also the emotional framework guiding those choices. In essence, education spending is as much a reflection of parental psychology as it is of economic circumstance, with family structure serving as a powerful determinant of how resources are allocated.

Entitled “Fixing Onlies Versus Advancing Multiples: Number of Children and Parents’ Preferences for Educational Products,” the study distinguishes between two types of education products—deficit-based and strength-based—and links parents’ preferences to the size of their family. The findings show that parents with a single child tend to favour deficit-based education solutions, such as remedial tutoring or exam preparation courses, which are designed to correct weaknesses or prevent failure. This tendency stems from a risk-averse mindset: with only one child to invest in, parents perceive any academic shortcoming as a direct threat to their child’s prospects. In contrast, parents with multiple children are more likely to channel funds into strength-based education products, such as STEM enrichment programmes, creative workshops, or leadership camps. These investments are future-oriented and aim to enhance existing skills rather than address deficiencies. According to Professor Wang, “Single-child parents often adopt a high-stakes, risk-averse approach to education spending, whereas multi-child parents spread resources across their children and focus on long-term growth opportunities.”

The researchers identified three principal patterns illustrating how family size impacts educational choices. First, single-child families show a pronounced preference for deficit-based products, driven by a desire to eliminate perceived weaknesses and ensure stability. Second, multi-child families lean towards strength-based programmes, reflecting a more diversified and opportunity-focused approach. Third, and perhaps most intriguingly, the study found that parents exhibiting high levels of negative perfectionism—defined as an excessive fear of failure—tend to prefer deficit-oriented solutions regardless of family size. As co-author Ce Liang explains, “Negative perfectionism amplifies risk aversion in education spending. These parents are more likely to choose products that ‘fix’ weaknesses rather than those that cultivate strengths.” Such findings suggest that perfectionism functions as a psychological lens through which parents interpret their children’s progress, influencing their spending behaviour as strongly as material constraints do.

The study’s implications extend well beyond academic theory, offering practical insights for education providers and marketers. For companies operating in the education sector, these findings highlight the importance of developing targeted marketing strategies that align with family composition. Advertisements aimed at single-child parents should emphasise a product’s capacity to address performance gaps, reduce anxiety, and safeguard academic outcomes. Conversely, marketing directed at multi-child families should highlight the long-term developmental advantages of enrichment and creativity. Educational companies might also benefit from tailoring their offerings, such as by creating bundled packages for siblings or hybrid programmes that balance remediation with skill advancement. This kind of segmentation not only ensures commercial relevance but also fosters trust among parents who feel their family’s specific needs are understood and addressed.

In addition to marketing considerations, the research highlights the need to manage parental perfectionism as an integral part of educational product design. Parents with high levels of anxiety about failure tend to overinvest in short-term remedial interventions, often at the expense of holistic learning experiences. Education providers can help alleviate these concerns by framing their products as both practical and reassuring. Rather than portraying education as a race against failure, companies can rebrand their services as tools for long-term confidence and balance, appealing to parents’ desire for peace of mind as much as for academic success. This shift in messaging could also contribute to broader cultural changes, encouraging a healthier relationship between parents and education systems—one that values exploration and resilience over perfectionism and fear.

Policymakers, too, have a role to play in addressing the inequalities and pressures revealed by the study. Governments and educational institutions can design initiatives that reflect the differing constraints of single- and multi-child households. Single-child families, often characterised by intense academic focus and high expectations, could benefit from subsidised programmes that provide personalised support, such as mentoring or adaptive tutoring. Multi-child families, on the other hand, may require more accessible and affordable enrichment opportunities, given that their educational spending is spread across several children. Schools and education ministries can also support parents by offering transparent information on both deficit-based and strength-based educational models, empowering them to make balanced, evidence-driven decisions. As co-author Qiyuan Wang notes, “Understanding these dynamics enables policymakers to craft interventions that bridge the gap between parents’ priorities and children’s long-term educational success.”

Taken together, the findings offer a broader commentary on how demographic and psychological factors shape the modern education landscape. In societies like China, where the one-child policy has only recently been relaxed, the legacy of concentrated parental investment continues to influence educational culture. Single-child families are emerging as a dominant market segment, wielding disproportionate influence through their willingness to spend heavily on perceived academic security. At the same time, multi-child families—though often more resource-constrained—represent an equally vital market for programmes that emphasise creativity, collaboration, and future adaptability. This duality suggests that the education sector must evolve beyond one-size-fits-all solutions, developing more inclusive systems that reflect the diverse realities of modern families. As Professor Wang concludes, “Education providers, policymakers, and marketers alike must recognise that family size is not a trivial demographic detail—it is a fundamental determinant of how we define and pursue educational success.” Through such understanding, the study argues, education can become not merely a means of social advancement, but a reflection of families’ deepest hopes, fears, and visions for their children’s future.

More information: Phyllis Xue Wang et al, Fixing Onlies Versus Advancing Multiples: Number of Children and Parents’ Preferences for Educational Products, Journal of Marketing. DOI: 10.1177/00222429241306009

Journal information: Journal of Marketing Provided by American Marketing Association

Busy minds, easy targets: how multitasking opens the door to phishing

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Picture the scene: you are deep in a Zoom meeting, while Slack messages flash across your screen, three spreadsheets sit open demanding attention, and your inbox pings insistently. In that moment of fragmented focus, it becomes all too easy to overlook the subtle but crucial red flag buried in a seemingly routine email. That’s how phishing succeeds — not by outsmarting us, but by exploiting our divided attention. With an estimated 3.4 billion malicious emails sent every day, this small slip in awareness can carry catastrophic consequences for individuals and organisations alike. The modern workplace, saturated with overlapping digital demands, has become the perfect environment for such attacks to thrive, as multitasking erodes the mental bandwidth needed for critical scrutiny.

A groundbreaking new study from faculty at Binghamton University’s School of Management, part of the State University of New York, has shed light on this very problem. The research reveals that multitasking significantly impairs people’s ability to detect phishing attempts. When the human mind juggles multiple streams of information, its capacity to recognise subtle anomalies — such as misspellings, mismatched domains, or inconsistent tone — diminishes sharply. Yet, amidst this disquieting revelation lies an encouraging discovery: small, well-timed “nudges” can restore awareness at the exact moment it’s most needed. These gentle interventions, carefully designed to refocus attention, can help individuals pause before clicking impulsively and potentially avert security breaches.

Associate Professor Jinglu Jiang, one of the study’s co-authors, highlighted the core dilemma of modern multitasking. “When working with multiple screens, your attention will never be fully focused on one screen or one particular email, especially when handling urgent tasks,” she explained. “If you want to reply to that email quickly, ignoring those red flags in a phishing email is easy.” Jiang and her team sought to understand how to mitigate this problem without disrupting productivity. Their proposed solution is elegantly simple: a notification system that nudges users at critical moments, gently reminding them to look for phishing indicators. Rather than relying on rigid training modules or intrusive pop-ups, this system would blend seamlessly into the user’s existing workflow, providing subtle cues that prompt reassessment when attention begins to drift.

To test their hypothesis, the researchers conducted experiments with 977 participants, simulating everyday multitasking scenarios. Participants were asked to carry out a “primary task” — such as memorising work-related data or numbers — while simultaneously identifying phishing emails, the “secondary task.” The setup mirrored the conditions of a typical workplace, where employees constantly switch between tasks under time pressure. The results were striking: when participants’ working memory was heavily engaged, their ability to detect phishing plummeted. However, when brief reminders or prompts were introduced, accuracy improved even under the heaviest cognitive load. These findings suggest that even minimal interventions, when timed correctly, can have a disproportionately positive impact on security awareness.

Importantly, the study’s proposed interventions require no sweeping technological overhaul. A simple coloured warning banner within an email client or a short prompt appearing during task switches could suffice. Imagine receiving a notification saying, “This message may be fraudulent — take a moment to verify,” just as you shift from one spreadsheet to another or open a new tab. These small nudges, positioned strategically during moments of distraction, help reclaim the user’s attention before they act. The beauty of this approach lies in its subtlety; it doesn’t demand complete focus but gently coaxes the mind back to awareness. This design philosophy reflects a deep understanding of human behaviour — acknowledging that security isn’t just a technological challenge, but a cognitive one.

The study also distinguishes between two types of phishing messages: “gain-framed” and “loss-framed.” Gain-framed messages promise rewards — think “Claim your gift card now!” — and are particularly effective at catching people off-guard because they exploit curiosity and excitement. Loss-framed messages, on the other hand, threaten negative consequences like “Your account will be locked in 24 hours,” triggering a more cautious, defensive reaction. Jiang’s team found that reminders were most effective against the reward-based, gain-framed messages, as people are naturally more vigilant in the face of threats but less so when enticed by potential benefits. This insight suggests that a uniform approach to phishing prevention — flooding users with constant reminders — may be counterproductive. Instead, organisations should adopt context-sensitive alerts that adapt to the specific nature of the threat.

As phishing tactics grow increasingly sophisticated — with cybercriminals using realistic fake accounts, cloned websites, and even artificial intelligence to mimic trusted senders — the need for adaptive, human-centred defences becomes urgent. Jiang warned that “the techniques used by these phishers become more sophisticated every day; they’re using fake accounts and, in many instances, masking the sender’s identity.” The study underscores that multitasking doesn’t just reduce productivity; it creates a security blind spot that phishers are eager to exploit. However, just-in-time nudges, designed to refocus attention precisely when vulnerability peaks, can serve as an effective countermeasure. By shifting from rigid, one-size-fits-all training programmes to dynamic, context-aware reminders, organisations can build resilience into the very fabric of digital workflows.

Ultimately, the findings from Binghamton University reveal an essential truth about cybersecurity: the weakest link is not technology, but attention. Human cognition, stretched thin by digital multitasking, is both the battleground and the solution. By embedding awareness into everyday tools — from Outlook and Gmail to Slack and Teams — and by designing training that mirrors real-world distractions, employers can foster a culture of mindful engagement. Rather than overwhelming workers with endless alerts, they can empower them with smart, timely cues that cut through the noise. In doing so, organisations move beyond a reactive stance and towards a proactive, psychologically informed model of defence — one that protects people not by demanding their constant vigilance, but by guiding it when it matters most.

More information: Jinglu Jiang et al, Phishing detection in multitasking contexts: the impact of working memory load, goal activation, and message framing cue on detection performance, European Journal of Information Systems. DOI: 10.1080/0960085X.2025.2548543

Journal information: European Journal of Information Systems Provided by Binghamton University

The Hidden Trade-Offs of the National Living Wage: A Decline in Labour Mobility?

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New research conducted by Bayes Business School, formerly known as Cass, has demonstrated that the introduction of the National Living Wage (NLW) in April 2016 has had a marked effect on the mobility of the UK’s workforce. Specifically, it revealed that the policy, while designed to raise the earnings of low-paid employees, has significantly curtailed the movement of minimum wage workers between firms. The findings suggest that although the NLW succeeded in increasing the incomes of those on the lowest pay scales, it may have inadvertently diminished the flexibility of the labour market. Workers who once sought new opportunities may now be less inclined to move, as the higher wage floor appears to reduce their incentive to switch jobs for relatively small pay increases elsewhere.

The UK Government introduced the National Living Wage to replace the National Minimum Wage for workers aged 25 and over. It came into force with an initial increase of fifty pence, bringing the hourly rate to £7.20. This was, at the time, the most substantial single rise in the minimum wage since its establishment in 1999. The policy represented an ambitious attempt to raise living standards for adults in full-time work, aligning pay more closely with the cost of living. However, the Bayes study suggests that this rise, though well-intentioned, may have generated a trade-off between wage growth and labour dynamism. In other words, while workers’ earnings increased, the broader movement of labour—crucial for a healthy and adaptive economy—appears to have slowed.

The study, led by Professor John Forth, a specialist in Human Resource Management at Bayes Business School, stands as the first comprehensive UK assessment of how a rising wage floor influences job mobility among minimum-wage earners. Drawing on data from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), the research explored the extent to which the new wage policy affected the probability of workers moving between organisations. It focused specifically on individuals aged 25 and above who were employed in consecutive years, enabling a robust comparison before and after the NLW’s introduction. Using two-year data blocks, the researchers analysed both wage progression and job mobility trends across firms, identifying patterns that could be directly attributed to the implementation of the policy.

The findings revealed that, following the introduction of the National Living Wage, movements between firms among the lowest-paid workers fell by approximately two to three percentage points compared with employees earning just above the threshold. Moreover, this decline in job mobility was not confined solely to those at the minimum wage level; workers earning up to 25 pence above the new threshold also exhibited reduced job movement. This indicates that the dampening effect on mobility extended beyond those directly targeted by the wage increase. However, within the same firms, no significant differences in mobility were observed between the lowest-paid and other employees. This suggests that the main factor behind reduced mobility is not internal pay structures but rather a general decrease in workers’ willingness to leave for alternative positions, especially where firms offer limited career advancement opportunities.

The data suggested that while workers previously earning below the new wage floor benefited from an immediate pay increase, the overall wage compression between firms diminished the appeal of job switching. In essence, the rise in the wage floor narrowed the gap between what competing employers could offer, thereby reducing the perceived benefits of taking the risk associated with changing jobs. As Professor Forth and his colleagues noted, higher wages can certainly improve job satisfaction and financial stability in the short term. Yet, this can also lessen the motivation for employees to seek new positions, especially when the differences in remuneration are minimal and when non-wage factors—such as work environment, management quality, or commuting distance—are uncertain before employment begins. The researchers caution that over time, this reduced movement could impede the ability of firms to recruit suitable candidates for low-wage roles, potentially constraining overall economic productivity.

Professor Forth concluded that while the National Living Wage has provided tangible and immediate benefits to many low-paid workers, the policy carries implications that extend beyond the question of fair pay. The reduced labour mobility could have broader economic consequences, particularly if firms face difficulties in filling entry-level positions or if workers find themselves with fewer pathways for progression. He emphasised the importance of continued monitoring by the Low Pay Commission to ensure that future wage adjustments strike a balance between improving living standards and maintaining a dynamic, efficient labour market. As the government considers extending the National Living Wage to younger workers aged between 18 and 21, the study’s findings offer a timely reminder of the complex relationship between wage policy, worker behaviour, and economic adaptability.

More information: John Forth et al, The Impact of a Rising Wage Floor on Labour Mobility Across Firms, British Journal of Industrial Relations. DOI: 10.1111/bjir.70008

Journal information: British Journal of Industrial Relations Provided by City St George’s, University of London

US Farm Exports Slip as Trade Rows Deepen and Competitors Seize Market Share

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For much of its modern history, the United States has stood as a titan of agricultural production, sustaining a robust trade surplus and feeding not only its own population but also a significant portion of the world. That image, however, is beginning to erode as complex global forces—ranging from political tensions to evolving trade alliances—reshape the agricultural landscape. Recent analyses from researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Texas Tech University reveal that, for the first time in decades, U.S. agrarian imports have surpassed exports. This reversal has created a growing trade deficit projected to reach an estimated $49 billion by the end of 2025. Lead researcher William Ridley, an associate professor in agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois, underscores that what was once a “persistent surplus” has transformed into a “persistent and growing deficit,” reflecting profound structural changes in the global food economy.

The study highlights a significant increase in U.S. agricultural imports, particularly of high-demand products like avocados from Mexico and canola oil from Canada. These figures contrast with the stagnation of American exports, even in staple commodities like corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton—the so-called “row crops” that have long served as the backbone of U.S. agricultural might. According to Ridley and his co-author, Stephen Devadoss, professor of agricultural and applied economics at Texas Tech, the forces driving this decline are not limited to natural market cycles. They are, instead, the product of mounting trade disputes and geopolitical realignments that have eroded confidence in traditional trade relationships. Among the most consequential of these disputes is the ongoing tariff war with China, which has profoundly disrupted the flow of agricultural goods between the two nations.

When the U.S. government imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, China retaliated by targeting American agricultural exports that were both economically significant and politically sensitive. Key crops such as soybeans, wheat, corn, and sorghum—mainly produced in regions supportive of the Republican administration—became casualties in the crossfire. The economic repercussions were swift and severe. Between 2017 and 2018, the value of U.S. exports to China plummeted: soybeans fell by an astounding seventy-three per cent (a $9 billion loss), wheat by sixty-seven per cent, corn by sixty-one per cent, and sorghum by thirty-seven per cent. In total, the trade conflict erased roughly $14 billion in export value, marking one of the steepest downturns in modern agricultural trade history. Although the Phase One trade deal brokered in 2020 briefly revived Chinese purchases of U.S. commodities, that momentum was short-lived. China quickly shifted to alternative suppliers, effectively cutting off imports of major U.S. crops and cementing new partnerships with other exporting nations.

This reconfiguration of trade patterns has coincided with the rapid ascent of global competitors. Brazil, in particular, has emerged as the world’s foremost soybean exporter, surpassing the U.S. through a combination of expanded farmland, improved crop yields, and significant state-backed investments in transportation infrastructure. Canada, Australia, and Ukraine have likewise strengthened their positions in global grain markets, eroding the competitive edge once firmly held by American producers. Ridley and Devadoss argue that while U.S. agricultural productivity has remained steady, it has not advanced at the same pace as that of its rivals. This comparative stagnation underscores the need for renewed investment in agricultural innovation, as other countries’ efficiency gains have steadily narrowed what was once a decisive gap. Meanwhile, China is pursuing agricultural self-sufficiency through heavy investment in research, biotechnology, and genetically modified crop development—further diminishing its reliance on U.S. imports.

Beyond trade disputes and competitive pressure, domestic policy decisions have also contributed to America’s slipping agricultural dominance. The researchers warn that reductions in public funding for agricultural research—especially at universities—pose a significant long-term threat to productivity. Innovation in crop science, soil health, and climate adaptation has historically underpinned the resilience of U.S. farming. With dwindling investment in these areas, the capacity to respond to environmental challenges and maintain global competitiveness is weakened. Ridley stresses that there is “a strong link between research funding and productivity,” noting that underfunding not only affects output but also the broader ability of the U.S. agricultural sector to maintain leadership in a rapidly evolving global market.

Despite the sobering data, a faint yet vital glimmer of optimism remains. The U.S. government is reportedly pursuing new bilateral trade agreements with a range of international partners, which could help reopen markets and stabilise export demand. Ridley believes that such efforts are essential for ensuring the future viability of American agriculture, even if progress is slow and politically fraught. Expanding market access, he argues, must remain a central objective for policymakers seeking to restore confidence among farmers and exporters alike. As the world’s food systems continue to evolve, the United States faces a pivotal choice: to reinvest strategically in innovation, diplomacy, and infrastructure, or to risk relinquishing its century-long status as the bedrock of global agricultural trade.

More information: William Ridley et al, Row Crops and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit: Recent Trends and Policy Issues, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70022

Journal information: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Provided by University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences

Research highlights the ways small farmers in Brazil are coping with climate shifts, but warns of sustainability risks ahead

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Small-scale farmers in Brazil are confronting the unrelenting advance of climate change with admirable tenacity. Though, as a new study in the Strategic Management Journal reveals, their well-intentioned efforts may be sowing the seeds of more profound vulnerability. In what could be described as the agricultural equivalent of trying to patch a leaky roof during a hurricane, these farmers are taking urgent, improvised measures that help them weather immediate storms but could, in the long run, undermine their capacity to adapt.

The research, led by Dr Lucrezia Nava, Assistant Professor of Sustainable Business Management at the University of Exeter Business School, and co-authored by Dr Jorge Chiapetti and Dr Rui Barbosa da Rocha of Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, together with Dr Maja Tampe of Universitat Ramon Llull, examines the predicament of smallholder cocoa producers in Southern Bahia. This picturesque yet beleaguered region, once synonymous with lush greenery and rich cocoa harvests, is now a crucible of climate stress — buffeted by prolonged droughts and economic volatility that together form a potent recipe for hardship.

Dr Nava points out that while large and medium-sized organisations in affluent nations often continue “business as usual,” buoyed by deep pockets and stable conditions, smaller enterprises in lower-income contexts face far more perilous realities. “These farmers are on the front lines of climate change,” she explains, “armed not with corporate safety nets but with resilience and hope — two assets that, regrettably, do not always stretch far enough.” She describes the grim arithmetic of survival: every decision is a balancing act between today’s hunger and tomorrow’s sustainability. It is rather like deciding whether to eat one’s seed corn — satisfying in the moment, but ruinous when planting season arrives.

To fully understand the scope of this dilemma, the researchers conducted four rounds of surveys with 3,091 cocoa farmers between 2015 and 2019, complemented by extensive interviews with 38 farmers and six cocoa experts. The data paint a complex and unsettling picture. Farmers directly impacted by drought were found to lose forest cover 3 per cent faster each year than those who were spared such conditions, suggesting that the pressure of immediate need often outweighs the logic of long-term conservation. More alarmingly, repeated exposure to extreme weather was linked to the adoption of maladaptive strategies — particularly deforestation for livestock grazing. It is an act that provides quick cash and meat on the table, but at the expense of soil quality, biodiversity, and ultimately, the very ecosystem that sustains their livelihoods.

Beyond economics, the study highlights a psychological twist worthy of Greek tragedy: when adversity feels insurmountable, people stop believing in solutions. The researchers describe how farmers caught in what they call “climate traps” become increasingly fatalistic, perceiving their situation as hopeless. This resignation leads to diminished investment in adaptive practices, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of environmental decline and economic desperation. As Dr Chiapetti grimly notes, “These traps worsen both environmental and economic conditions, leaving farmers with fewer options to break free.” It is, in effect, a climate quicksand — the harder one struggles, the deeper one sinks.

Dr da Rocha adds a dose of realism tinged with irony: “Many producers fear that climate change will only intensify, so they choose immediate relief — even when it undermines long-term resilience.” It is a kind of pragmatic pessimism: if one suspects the sky will fall tomorrow, why bother building a barn today? Yet this logic, while understandable, underscores the need for policies that make sustainability possible, not merely desirable. Farmers are rational actors in an irrational climate, making choices that appear perfectly logical in the short term, even if they are collectively disastrous over time.

The study’s implications extend well beyond Bahia’s cocoa fields. The authors argue that these local struggles mirror a broader global predicament — the fragile interdependence between vulnerable producers and the international supply chains that rely on them. Cocoa, after all, does not materialise magically in our chocolate bars; it is coaxed from the earth by individuals whose decisions are shaped by immediate necessity. For policymakers and corporations, the message is clear: support cannot stop at technical training or financial aid. Accurate adaptation requires addressing the psychological and social dimensions of decision-making under stress. As Dr Tampe eloquently concludes, “By understanding how vulnerable producers make decisions under climate strain, we can design support systems that build real resilience — not just patchwork survival.”

Ultimately, the study offers both a warning and a glimmer of hope. The warning is that without coordinated, empathetic intervention, the current trajectory risks eroding the ecological foundations of agricultural livelihoods across the Global South. The hope — and it is a stubborn, green shoot of hope — lies in the possibility of reimagining adaptation as a partnership between science, policy, and the human spirit. Farmers, after all, have weathered storms before; the challenge now is ensuring that their fight for survival does not become the cause of their undoing. If nothing else, perhaps this study will persuade us that sustainability, like good cocoa, requires patience, care, and a refusal to settle for the quick fix — however tempting it may be when the droughts roll in.

More information: Lucrezia Nava et al, Die now of hunger or later of thirst: Understanding climate change adaptation decisions in vulnerable contexts, Strategic Management Journal. DOI: 10.1002/smj.3709

Journal information: Strategic Management Journal Provided by Strategic Management Society