Monthly Archives: October 2025

Cambridge Scientist’s Open Letter to Greggs Reveals the Surprising Trick That Could Double Vegan Sausage Roll Sales

A groundbreaking new study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems has revealed a strikingly effective strategy for increasing the consumption of low-emission foods, potentially reshaping how sustainability is approached in consumer behaviour research. The study was led by Dr Chris Macdonald, a Cambridge scientist and Director of the Better Protein Institute, whose “nudge by proxy” method focuses on appealing to people’s personal motivations rather than their environmental conscience. In a series of large-scale experiments involving 3,000 participants, this approach more than doubled the selection of meat-free meals, proving significantly more successful than the traditional carbon footprint labelling techniques often used to promote sustainable food choices. The results suggest that behavioural change in favour of sustainability may be more easily achieved when interventions are designed from the consumer’s perspective rather than that of environmental advocates.

At the heart of Dr Macdonald’s research lies a crucial psychological insight: the “false consensus effect”, which leads individuals to overestimate the extent to which others share their values and beliefs. He argues that this effect can cause researchers, particularly those with strong environmental convictions, to design interventions that mirror their own motivations rather than those of the general public. “Researchers who are environmentalists may assume that emphasising climate impacts will sway others in the same way it persuades them,” Dr Macdonald explains. “I call this the environmentalist bias.” To counter this, he adopts a participatory approach that involves engaging directly with consumers before creating new behavioural interventions, ensuring that his designs are aligned with what genuinely influences their choices.

The study began with an extensive survey of 1,500 consumers, which identified a consistent concern among respondents: that meat-free diets might lack sufficient protein. Dr Macdonald terms this widespread misconception the “insufficiency illusion”—a false belief that plant-based meals are nutritionally inferior. Drawing on this insight, his team developed a simple yet powerful intervention: a label that highlighted the protein content of meat-free foods, rather than their environmental benefits. This slight but strategic shift reframed the narrative around plant-based options, emphasising their nutritional strengths. One of the most striking examples came from Greggs’ Vegan Sausage Roll, which, contrary to popular perception, not only produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and contains less fat than the traditional sausage roll, but also offers more protein. The same holds for Greggs’ breakfast roll range, reinforcing the notion that meat-free alternatives can be both nutritious and satisfying.

The experiments revealed that such a seemingly minor adjustment in messaging could produce extraordinary results. “By simply highlighting the protein content, we were able to shift an unprecedented number of consumers towards meat-free choices,” says Dr Macdonald. In the control group, less than a quarter of participants chose the meat-free option, while in the group exposed to the protein label, over half did so—an increase of more than 100 per cent. The finding held steady across genders and age groups, making it one of the most consistent effects observed in sustainable food research to date. This dramatic behavioural shift transformed the meat-free choice from a minority preference into the majority decision, marking what Dr Macdonald describes as a “step-change” in the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing dietary emissions.

Following the success of his experiments, Dr Macdonald took the unusual step of directly sharing his findings with Greggs, the UK’s leading bakery chain and the company behind the famed Vegan Sausage Roll. He published an open letter on social media. He sent detailed communications to key Greggs executives, including CEO Roisin Currie, Head of Sustainability Paul Irwin-Rhodes, Customer & Marketing Director Hannah Squirrell, Product Development & Innovation Lead Sarah Graham, Brand Communications & Creative Lead Fiona Mills, and Head of Brand and Communications Ian White. His message to them was clear: Greggs now has a data-backed opportunity not only to boost sales but to enhance its reputation as a sustainability leader. “At the Better Protein Institute, we are committed to turning research into tangible impact,” Dr Macdonald explained. “That is why I have shared the results with Greggs and offered to collaborate with them—they have my contact information. The ball is in their court now.”

In reflecting on the broader implications of his work, Dr Macdonald challenges what he sees as a defeatist narrative surrounding sustainable consumption. “A rising tide of global meat consumption fuels a dangerous idea—that changing eating habits is too difficult,” he warns. “My work provides a defiant counter-narrative. With a data-driven approach, I continue to uncover new interventions that outperform traditional strategies.” His philosophy, which he describes as “data-driven, defiant optimism in action,” rests on a belief that real progress comes from understanding human psychology, engaging meaningfully with consumers, and resisting the pessimism that often clouds environmental discourse. If widely adopted, his “nudge by proxy” method could redefine how businesses and policymakers encourage sustainable choices—showing that the path to a greener future may begin not with moral pressure, but with empathy, insight, and a clear understanding of what truly motivates people.

More information: Chris Macdonald, Reducing meat consumption with consumer insights and the nudge by proxy: the anomaly of asking, the power of protein, and illusions of insufficiency and availability, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1656336

Journal information: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems Provided by Lucy Cavendish College, University of Cambridge

When Washington tried to dry up the money—and the boom rolled on

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In 2013, the United States Department of Justice discreetly inaugurated a controversial financial initiative known as Operation Choke Point, conceived as an indirect means of regulating morally contentious industries without resorting to new legislation. Its objective was to pressure banks into severing relationships with legal yet socially disapproved businesses, thereby denying them access to essential financial services. These included payday lenders, firearms and ammunition dealers, tobacco sellers, online gambling operators, and even escort services—industries regarded as high-risk or socially harmful. By urging banks to withdraw credit and terminate accounts, the government aimed to financially strangle these sectors, effectively starving them out of the market. It was a subtle form of economic policing, achieved not through explicit bans or acts of Congress but through regulatory insinuation and fear of reprisal.

The strategy relied heavily on informal coercion rather than statutory authority. Federal agencies issued cautionary guidance implying that banks associated with specific “high-risk” clients could face heightened scrutiny, investigations, or reputational damage. For institutions already wary of costly compliance checks, the message was unmistakable. Many chose to quietly end relationships with customers in these disfavoured industries, even when no wrongdoing had occurred. In essence, Operation Choke Point transformed moral disapproval into financial pressure, turning the banking sector into an instrument of state policy. The approach was both practical and opaque in the short term, as it circumvented public debate by enlisting private financial intermediaries as enforcers. Yet beneath its surface lay a troubling precedent: the state’s ability to use the credit system as a means of informal punishment, blurring the line between regulation and coercion.

A decade later, the long-term effects of this initiative were rigorously examined by economists from the University of Rochester, the University of Michigan, the University of Maryland, and the Federal Reserve Board, with their findings published in the Journal of Financial Economics. Their analysis concluded unequivocally that Operation Choke Point had failed to achieve its primary goal. As Billy Xu, assistant professor of finance at Rochester’s Simon Business School and a co-author of the study, explained, while targeted banks did reduce lending to controversial firms, the overall credit availability to these industries remained essentially unchanged. The reason was simple: companies quickly formed new relationships with non-targeted banks. Those lenders, unburdened by federal pressure, seized the opportunity to attract profitable clients. Thus, although the Department of Justice succeeded in compelling compliance from some institutions, it utterly failed to deprive the affected industries of financing.

The research, drawing on confidential Federal Reserve data covering more than 5,600 firms, revealed a nuanced picture. Small and medium-sized businesses within targeted sectors experienced measurable strain—a roughly 10 per cent reduction in available credit, shorter loan maturities, stricter collateral requirements, and in some cases, abrupt termination of accounts. However, the largest corporations in these industries weathered the storm with ease. They possessed stronger reputations, greater financial leverage, and broader access to credit markets. Some even increased their borrowing as a precautionary buffer. The result was a redistribution of financial stress, with the small suffering while the large endured or even prospered. Operation Choke Point, intended to punish entire industries, instead accentuated existing inequalities, demonstrating how targeted financial restrictions can unintentionally consolidate market power among dominant players.

The study’s broader conclusion was sobering. Operation Choke Point succeeded in intimidating banks but failed to “choke” the industries themselves. The flow of credit proved too adaptive, too decentralised to be constrained by selective intervention. As Xu aptly observed, “As one bank gives up business, another bank steps in and takes advantage of that.” The metaphor often repeated by the researchers likened the policy to turning off only a few taps in a running water system—the flow is redirected elsewhere. The programme’s limited scope was its undoing: it targeted only a subset of large banks, leaving smaller and regional lenders free to fill the vacuum. By 2017, amid lawsuits, congressional inquiries, and widespread criticism that the initiative constituted government overreach, Operation Choke Point was formally terminated. It became a symbol of how informal regulation, no matter how well-intentioned, can backfire when it collides with the adaptability of markets.

Ultimately, the legacy of Operation Choke Point is one of caution rather than triumph. It revealed the limits of financial pressure as a tool of social engineering, exposing the illusion that credit rationing can reshape morality or behaviour in a market-driven economy. The initiative’s quiet collapse demonstrated that capital is inherently resilient, finding new channels when old ones are blocked. Moreover, it underscored the ethical dangers of substituting informal influence for legal authority—using financial institutions to enforce values that have never been codified in law. For policymakers, activists, and regulators who believe that restricting credit can reform disfavoured sectors, the lesson is clear: markets adapt faster than mandates, and the attempt to starve industries of money rarely works. Operation Choke Point, rather than suffocating the businesses it sought to discipline, merely reaffirmed a fundamental truth of modern capitalism—that finance, like water, cannot be so easily contained.

More information: Kunal Sachdeva et al, Defunding controversial industries: Can targeted credit rationing choke firms? Journal of Financial Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104133

Journal information: Journal of Financial Economics Provided by University of Rochester

ESMT Berlin report: ESG scores carry marginal weight in Gulf financial outcomes

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Companies across the Gulf region are facing mounting pressure to comply with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. However, the connection between strong ESG performance and improved financial results remains unclear. A recent study sheds light on this issue by exploring whether listed companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that score highly on ESG metrics also outperform their peers financially.

The research, entitled “ESG and financial performance in the Gulf Cooperation Council,” was co-authored by Catalina Stefanescu-Cuntze, Professor of Management Science and faculty lead of the Master in Analytics and Artificial Intelligence Program at ESMT Berlin, alongside Rodrigo Tavares and Catarina Sá of Nova School of Business and Economics (Nova SBE). The article appears in the peer-reviewed open-access journal Sustainable Communities.

The authors examined 54 publicly traded firms across the seven GCC states to evaluate the relationship between ESG performance and financial outcomes. Their findings reveal a complex and counterintuitive picture. Companies with stronger financial standing are generally more inclined to invest in ESG initiatives; however, higher ESG ratings alone do not necessarily translate into superior stock market performance. In effect, the study suggests that financial health enables companies to bolster their ESG profile, rather than ESG excellence driving immediate financial rewards.

Notably, the study highlights that the influence of ESG on financial results is uneven across the region. The overall picture is skewed by the dominance of a handful of large and well-capitalised firms, particularly in the finance and energy sectors, which enjoy both substantial resources and strategic importance in national development agendas. For investors, this means ESG ratings in the Gulf cannot yet serve as reliable predictors of future returns. “Our findings indicate that ESG performance in the Gulf is advancing, but its financial implications differ from those observed in many developed markets,” explained Stefanescu-Cuntze. “Here, ESG appears to be shaped more by government policy and institutional commitments than by market dynamics.”

Beyond its immediate insights, the paper makes a broader contribution to the global debate on sustainable finance by highlighting the importance of regional context. In markets where sustainability considerations have not yet become central to investor decision-making, companies may prioritise ESG not primarily for financial advantage but to align with government visions and long-term national transition strategies. The authors argue that this pattern is particularly salient in the Gulf, where the global implications of economic transformation and sustainability are profound.

More information: Rodrigo Tavares et al, ESG-financial performance in the Gulf region: a bidirectional examination, Sustainable Communities. DOI: 10.1080/29931282.2025.2560305

Journal information: Sustainable Communities Provided by ESMT Berlin

Experts Call for Country-Specific Climate Solutions

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The debate on carbon dioxide pricing has increasingly occupied public discussions, yet relatively few experts are given a platform to share their views. This lack of expert representation makes it difficult to establish whether professionals agree on how climate policy should be designed and implemented. Recognising this gap, Associate Professor of Economics Frikk Nesje from the University of Copenhagen, in collaboration with colleagues in Germany and Switzerland, undertook a comprehensive survey to capture expert opinions. The project aimed to clarify preferences regarding critical policy tools, such as whether carbon taxation or quota trading is preferable, how border carbon adjustments should operate in international trade, and how revenues generated through climate policy should be utilised.

The survey, which canvassed the perspectives of more than 400 international climate policy experts, is the largest of its kind to date. Its findings underscore the complexity of the issue and the absence of a one-size-fits-all solution. Instead, the results reveal that expert recommendations vary significantly depending on geographical location, a country’s stage of economic development, and professional orientation. These variations highlight the importance of tailoring climate policies to specific national contexts rather than imposing uniform solutions that may not be feasible or effective everywhere.

One of the most striking findings was the clear preference for carbon taxation over quota trading. Twice as many experts supported taxation as opposed to systems like the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Yet this headline figure conceals critical regional disparities. In wealthier countries such as Denmark and the United States, experts strongly favour taxes, emphasising their straightforward design and revenue-generating potential. By contrast, respondents from lower-income countries often lean towards quota trading because such systems are perceived as easier to introduce administratively and more flexible in terms of revenue sharing between nations. This contrast reflects the broader reality that institutional and economic capacity shape what is politically and practically achievable.

Despite differences over taxation and trading, there is remarkable unity on the issue of border carbon adjustment. A striking 74 per cent of experts support introducing some mechanism to equalise the carbon costs of imports and exports. In practice, this would mean taxing imported goods to match the carbon tax levels of the importing country, while compensating carbon-intensive domestic exports. The consensus here is notable given the formidable legal and technical challenges associated with such mechanisms. It reflects growing recognition that without border adjustments, climate policies risk creating distortions in global competitiveness and encouraging carbon leakage, where industries relocate to jurisdictions with weaker climate rules. The prominence of this measure in current debates is also evident in its central role in the European Union’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

When considering how revenues should be spent, the survey revealed less agreement. The most widely supported option was investing in green research and development, with many experts emphasising the need to accelerate technological innovation to meet climate goals. Close behind was the idea of compensating households most negatively affected by rising energy costs and other burdens created by climate policies. By contrast, there was relatively little support for proposals to distribute revenues evenly as lump-sum payments to households—a measure frequently promoted in North American debates.

The divisions over revenue use reflect underlying disciplinary perspectives. Economists in the survey were more inclined to recommend options that improve efficiency, such as lowering distortionary taxes or providing targeted transfers. Experts from other professional backgrounds, however, tended to favour public investment in green technologies and infrastructure, arguing that these approaches are more politically palatable and visible to citizens. Nesje notes that this divergence mirrors a classic tension between economic theory and political realism. Both perspectives matter, he argues, because climate policy must be both economically sound and politically feasible to achieve broad acceptance and long-term effectiveness.

The survey thus provides decision-makers with an invaluable knowledge base, bringing together expert views from around the world to illuminate both points of agreement and areas of divergence. By acknowledging these nuances, governments can design climate policies that are not only environmentally effective but also economically and socially just. The key message is that while global challenges demand international cooperation, the pathways to climate solutions must reflect the distinct circumstances of each country.

More information: Frikk Nesje et al, Designing Carbon Pricing Policies Across the Globe, Environmental and Resource Economics. DOI: 10.1007/s10640-025-01036-3

Journal information: Environmental and Resource Economics Provided by University of Copenhagen

Where financial advisors come from matters for their ethical choices

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A new study has found that the environment in which financial advisors were raised exerts a powerful influence on their ethical outlook as adults, shaping the likelihood of misconduct within the industry. The research indicates that an advisor’s upbringing is a significant predictor of whether they will later engage in professional misconduct, even when they no longer reside or work in the same communities where they grew up. In other words, the cultural norms of childhood environments leave an enduring mark on professional behaviour that transcends geography.

“This study underscores that the environment we grow up in has a lasting impact on our adult behaviour,” says Jesse Ellis, co-author of the paper and Alan T. Dickson Distinguished Professor of Finance at North Carolina State University’s Poole College of Management. “If we want to promote ethical conduct in the financial advisor sector, cultural influences must be part of the conversation.” Ellis notes that earlier research revealed one in thirteen advisors had committed at least one case of documented misconduct, and that those individuals often remained in the profession. Because clients typically lack the expertise to assess the value of financial products and services accurately, advisors have opportunities to exploit this gap, profiting at the expense of those they serve.

Although regulations exist to deter misconduct, Ellis stresses that such safeguards are challenging to enforce effectively. This makes individual commitment to ethical behaviour the primary protection for clients. “Given how vulnerable this sector is to misconduct, we wanted to explore the deeper factors that influence these ethical decisions,” Ellis explains. To address this, the researchers turned their attention to the environments that shaped advisors during childhood, seeking to understand how cultural norms and local behaviours might establish an advisor’s ethical compass long before they enter the workforce.

The study analysed records from 86,766 financial advisors, mapping them to 2,489 counties where they grew up and 1,720 counties where they later worked. Researchers also incorporated data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and state regulatory agencies to establish the histories of misconduct among advisors. To quantify the cultural backdrop of each advisor’s upbringing, the team used a “misbehaviour index,” which draws on six indicators: corporate financial misconduct, political corruption, advisor misconduct, stock option backdating, spousal infidelity, and questionable financial ties between doctors and drug companies. Counties were given scores, with higher scores reflecting higher levels of misbehaviour.

The results were precise. Advisors raised in counties with higher misconduct scores were significantly more likely to engage in misconduct as adults. This trend persisted even when the advisors had moved away from their home counties, and it remained even after controlling for a range of demographic variables. “The findings demonstrate a strong link between the ethical climate of a childhood environment and later professional behaviour,” Ellis says. “It’s not a guarantee that someone from a high-misbehaviour area will act unethically, but the risk is notably greater. The cultural norms of a community leave a lasting imprint on individuals.”

For policymakers and industry leaders, the implications are stark. If ethical foundations are deeply ingrained during one’s formative years, then short-term training schemes or superficial compliance workshops are unlikely to curb misconduct effectively. Instead, Ellis and his co-authors suggest that a more substantial approach is needed — one that recognises cultural influences and works proactively to foster a stronger culture of integrity across the sector. “This study makes it clear that ethical training cannot be an afterthought,” Ellis concludes. “We hope it sparks more thoughtful strategies to influence advisor behaviour in ways that genuinely protect clients and build trust in the industry.”

More information: Jesse Ellis et al, Childhood Exposure to Misbehavior and the Culture of Financial Misconduct, Review of Financial Studies. DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhaf075

Journal information: Review of Financial Studies Provided by North Carolina State University

Say goodbye to online meeting burnout

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When the COVID-19 pandemic confined millions to their homes, endless hours spent in front of a webcam gave rise to a new expression: “Zoom fatigue.” The phrase quickly entered everyday vocabulary and was widely reported in the media as shorthand for the exhaustion many people felt after online meetings. According to Junior Professor Hadar Nesher Shoshan of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU), that perception reflected the reality of the time. “During lockdown, there is no doubt that people were drained by video calls,” she notes. “But our latest research suggests that under present conditions, this is no longer the case. In fact, video meetings today do not appear to be any more tiring than face-to-face encounters.” The team’s findings have just been published in the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology.

The study was conducted in collaboration with Assistant Professor Wilken Wehrt of Maastricht University and involved 125 participants who recorded their experiences of everyday meetings over 10 days. The researchers collected information on 945 meetings in total, with 62 per cent of these meetings taking place online. Participants were asked to note whether their meetings were virtual or in person, whether they multitasked during them, whether they had the opportunity to take a break or move around, and how exhausted they felt afterwards. This systematic approach allowed the researchers to make direct comparisons between meeting formats. “Our starting assumption was that Zoom fatigue would still be evident, since almost all previous studies had reached that conclusion,” explains Nesher Shoshan. “To our surprise, the data showed no such pattern. We found no evidence that online meetings were more fatiguing than traditional meetings. In fact, video meetings lasting under 44 minutes were reported to be less exhausting than their in-person counterparts.”

One of the central questions arising from these results is why they diverge from earlier studies. The answer, the researchers argue, lies in the timing of data collection. Almost all existing studies relied on information gathered during the height of the pandemic, when online meetings were inseparably linked with lockdown conditions, social restrictions, and a general sense of disruption. “It is much more likely that fatigue was not caused by the digital format of the meetings themselves, but by the wider context of the pandemic,” says Nesher Shoshan. “Video calls became symbols of isolation, monotony, and the loss of normal working and social life. Our findings emphasise how essential it is in the social sciences to replicate research under new circumstances, because the historical context shapes the results.”

The new evidence carries significant implications for the ongoing debates about remote work and hybrid arrangements. Concerns about burnout, loss of engagement, and diminished well-being in home-working contexts often hinge on the belief that online meetings are inherently draining. This study undercuts that assumption. As Nesher Shoshan points out, the results demonstrate that the supposed “disadvantage” of digital meetings is not a fixed truth, but rather a product of an extraordinary moment in history. “At the very least, our work challenges the claim that employees working from home are automatically more at risk of meeting-related exhaustion,” she explains. “If anything, when structured properly and kept reasonably short, online meetings can be just as sustainable as traditional ones.”

In retrospect, the term “Zoom fatigue” may have been less about technology and more about the psychological toll of an unprecedented crisis. The confinement of lockdown, the blurring of work–life boundaries, and the absence of informal social interaction all converged on the digital meeting as the visible culprit. Now, with more balance restored to working life and with people better adapted to virtual communication, the fatigue once attributed to Zoom seems to have faded.

For researchers, the lesson is twofold. First, it illustrates the importance of revisiting widely accepted claims with fresh data, rather than assuming that findings remain universally valid. Second, it demonstrates how social and psychological phenomena can be deeply intertwined with their historical context. For practitioners and organisations, the findings are equally valuable. They suggest that fears about the exhausting nature of online collaboration may be overstated in the post-pandemic workplace, clearing the way for more confident adoption of hybrid work models without the looming spectre of fatigue.

Ultimately, the research reframes the story of Zoom fatigue from a universal truth into a temporary chapter in the history of work. Far from being an inevitable feature of online interaction, fatigue appears to have been an artefact of pandemic conditions. As this new study demonstrates, digital meetings today are no more inherently draining than their face-to-face equivalents—and sometimes, they may even prove to be the more refreshing option.

More information: Hadar Nesher Shoshan et al, “Zoom fatigue” revisited: Are video meetings still exhausting post-COVID-19? Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. DOI: 10.1037/ocp0000409

Journal information: Journal of Occupational Health Psychology Provided by Johannes Gutenberg Universitaet Mainz

What EU Data Protection Laws Mean for Media and Journalism Online

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In May 2018, the European Union (EU) introduced the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a landmark element of its privacy legislation. From the outset, privacy rules of this kind were met with scepticism by the online advertising industry, which warned that such restrictions would damage the digital economy. Critics argued that by limiting online tracking and disrupting targeted advertising, the GDPR would erode publishers’ capacity to generate revenue, ultimately threatening the sustainability of free, high-quality online content. Yet, despite these concerns, comparatively little attention has been paid to examining how the regulation has actually shaped the relationship between news and media websites and their audiences.

A new longitudinal study has sought to fill this gap by analysing how news and media providers in both the EU and the United States adapted to the GDPR in the months and years following its implementation. The researchers focused on whether restrictions on data collection altered patterns of content production and audience engagement. Their findings suggest that, although EU websites made adjustments, they continued to produce high-quality material and maintain audience engagement at levels broadly similar to those of their U.S. counterparts.

The research, conducted by teams from Carnegie Mellon University, MIT, Institut Mines Télécom Business School, and Cornell University, appears in Management Science. According to Vincent Lefrere of Institut Mines Télécom, a co-author of the study, the central question concerned the balance between privacy protection and the economic needs of content providers. “Content providers rely heavily on online advertising,” Lefrere explains. “The GDPR raised fears that restrictions on the data flows underpinning programmatic ads would threaten their ability to function. This raised fundamental questions about how to reconcile privacy regulation with broader societal interests.”

To answer these questions, the researchers examined nearly 1,000 websites across France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Drawing on data collected at regular intervals between April 2017 and November 2019, the study compared the responses of EU-based websites, which are directly subject to GDPR obligations, with those of U.S. websites, which are less directly affected by the regulation. The analysis revealed marked differences in behaviour. Both EU and U.S. providers initially reduced visitor tracking after the GDPR came into force, though this decline was temporary. However, EU websites ultimately stabilised at significantly lower tracking levels than before, particularly in relation to both EU and U.S. visitors. Moreover, EU websites were far more likely to adopt consent mechanisms than their American counterparts.

These trends reflected the different regulatory environments in which the websites operated, reinforced by the fact that EU websites drew most of their visitors from within the EU. In contrast, U.S. websites were primarily frequented by domestic audiences. Strikingly, however, the regulation did not appear to undermine EU providers’ ability to produce and share content. Using multiple methods and outcome measures, the study found no statistically significant evidence of reduced content availability or engagement relative to U.S. websites. While there was a slight decline in the average number of page views per visitor on EU sites, other indicators—such as total traffic, site rankings, and social media reactions—remained largely unaffected.

The authors conclude that EU websites adapted to the GDPR’s constraints in ways that mitigated the feared consequences. As Cristobal Cheyre of Cornell University observes, “A negative impact of the GDPR on consumer-facing metrics should not have been taken for granted. Our findings show that businesses were able to adjust, and in doing so, minimised any potential negative outcomes.”

Nevertheless, the researchers caution against over-generalising their results. Their analysis does not extend to the long-term implications of the GDPR, nor does it evaluate whether differing levels of privacy protection may have altered the quality of user experiences across EU and U.S. sites. Even so, the results challenge the industry’s initial claims of imminent disaster. As Alessandro Acquisti of MIT Sloan, another co-author, notes: “Although the ad-tech industry predicted dire consequences, our study shows that EU content providers weathered the transition without the collapse many anticipated. These findings are highly relevant to ongoing debates about regulating privacy and corporate data practices.”

More information: Vincent Lefrere et al, Does Privacy Regulation Harm Content Providers? A Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of the GDPR, Management Science. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.03186

Journal information: Management Science Provided by Carnegie Mellon University