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US Farm Exports Slip as Trade Rows Deepen and Competitors Seize Market Share

For much of its modern history, the United States has stood as a titan of agricultural production, sustaining a robust trade surplus and feeding not only its own population but also a significant portion of the world. That image, however, is beginning to erode as complex global forces—ranging from political tensions to evolving trade alliances—reshape the agricultural landscape. Recent analyses from researchers at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Texas Tech University reveal that, for the first time in decades, U.S. agrarian imports have surpassed exports. This reversal has created a growing trade deficit projected to reach an estimated $49 billion by the end of 2025. Lead researcher William Ridley, an associate professor in agricultural and consumer economics at the University of Illinois, underscores that what was once a “persistent surplus” has transformed into a “persistent and growing deficit,” reflecting profound structural changes in the global food economy.

The study highlights a significant increase in U.S. agricultural imports, particularly of high-demand products like avocados from Mexico and canola oil from Canada. These figures contrast with the stagnation of American exports, even in staple commodities like corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton—the so-called “row crops” that have long served as the backbone of U.S. agricultural might. According to Ridley and his co-author, Stephen Devadoss, professor of agricultural and applied economics at Texas Tech, the forces driving this decline are not limited to natural market cycles. They are, instead, the product of mounting trade disputes and geopolitical realignments that have eroded confidence in traditional trade relationships. Among the most consequential of these disputes is the ongoing tariff war with China, which has profoundly disrupted the flow of agricultural goods between the two nations.

When the U.S. government imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, China retaliated by targeting American agricultural exports that were both economically significant and politically sensitive. Key crops such as soybeans, wheat, corn, and sorghum—mainly produced in regions supportive of the Republican administration—became casualties in the crossfire. The economic repercussions were swift and severe. Between 2017 and 2018, the value of U.S. exports to China plummeted: soybeans fell by an astounding seventy-three per cent (a $9 billion loss), wheat by sixty-seven per cent, corn by sixty-one per cent, and sorghum by thirty-seven per cent. In total, the trade conflict erased roughly $14 billion in export value, marking one of the steepest downturns in modern agricultural trade history. Although the Phase One trade deal brokered in 2020 briefly revived Chinese purchases of U.S. commodities, that momentum was short-lived. China quickly shifted to alternative suppliers, effectively cutting off imports of major U.S. crops and cementing new partnerships with other exporting nations.

This reconfiguration of trade patterns has coincided with the rapid ascent of global competitors. Brazil, in particular, has emerged as the world’s foremost soybean exporter, surpassing the U.S. through a combination of expanded farmland, improved crop yields, and significant state-backed investments in transportation infrastructure. Canada, Australia, and Ukraine have likewise strengthened their positions in global grain markets, eroding the competitive edge once firmly held by American producers. Ridley and Devadoss argue that while U.S. agricultural productivity has remained steady, it has not advanced at the same pace as that of its rivals. This comparative stagnation underscores the need for renewed investment in agricultural innovation, as other countries’ efficiency gains have steadily narrowed what was once a decisive gap. Meanwhile, China is pursuing agricultural self-sufficiency through heavy investment in research, biotechnology, and genetically modified crop development—further diminishing its reliance on U.S. imports.

Beyond trade disputes and competitive pressure, domestic policy decisions have also contributed to America’s slipping agricultural dominance. The researchers warn that reductions in public funding for agricultural research—especially at universities—pose a significant long-term threat to productivity. Innovation in crop science, soil health, and climate adaptation has historically underpinned the resilience of U.S. farming. With dwindling investment in these areas, the capacity to respond to environmental challenges and maintain global competitiveness is weakened. Ridley stresses that there is “a strong link between research funding and productivity,” noting that underfunding not only affects output but also the broader ability of the U.S. agricultural sector to maintain leadership in a rapidly evolving global market.

Despite the sobering data, a faint yet vital glimmer of optimism remains. The U.S. government is reportedly pursuing new bilateral trade agreements with a range of international partners, which could help reopen markets and stabilise export demand. Ridley believes that such efforts are essential for ensuring the future viability of American agriculture, even if progress is slow and politically fraught. Expanding market access, he argues, must remain a central objective for policymakers seeking to restore confidence among farmers and exporters alike. As the world’s food systems continue to evolve, the United States faces a pivotal choice: to reinvest strategically in innovation, diplomacy, and infrastructure, or to risk relinquishing its century-long status as the bedrock of global agricultural trade.

More information: William Ridley et al, Row Crops and the U.S. Agricultural Trade Deficit: Recent Trends and Policy Issues, Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. DOI: 10.1002/aepp.70022

Journal information: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy Provided by University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences

Research highlights the ways small farmers in Brazil are coping with climate shifts, but warns of sustainability risks ahead

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Small-scale farmers in Brazil are confronting the unrelenting advance of climate change with admirable tenacity. Though, as a new study in the Strategic Management Journal reveals, their well-intentioned efforts may be sowing the seeds of more profound vulnerability. In what could be described as the agricultural equivalent of trying to patch a leaky roof during a hurricane, these farmers are taking urgent, improvised measures that help them weather immediate storms but could, in the long run, undermine their capacity to adapt.

The research, led by Dr Lucrezia Nava, Assistant Professor of Sustainable Business Management at the University of Exeter Business School, and co-authored by Dr Jorge Chiapetti and Dr Rui Barbosa da Rocha of Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, together with Dr Maja Tampe of Universitat Ramon Llull, examines the predicament of smallholder cocoa producers in Southern Bahia. This picturesque yet beleaguered region, once synonymous with lush greenery and rich cocoa harvests, is now a crucible of climate stress — buffeted by prolonged droughts and economic volatility that together form a potent recipe for hardship.

Dr Nava points out that while large and medium-sized organisations in affluent nations often continue “business as usual,” buoyed by deep pockets and stable conditions, smaller enterprises in lower-income contexts face far more perilous realities. “These farmers are on the front lines of climate change,” she explains, “armed not with corporate safety nets but with resilience and hope — two assets that, regrettably, do not always stretch far enough.” She describes the grim arithmetic of survival: every decision is a balancing act between today’s hunger and tomorrow’s sustainability. It is rather like deciding whether to eat one’s seed corn — satisfying in the moment, but ruinous when planting season arrives.

To fully understand the scope of this dilemma, the researchers conducted four rounds of surveys with 3,091 cocoa farmers between 2015 and 2019, complemented by extensive interviews with 38 farmers and six cocoa experts. The data paint a complex and unsettling picture. Farmers directly impacted by drought were found to lose forest cover 3 per cent faster each year than those who were spared such conditions, suggesting that the pressure of immediate need often outweighs the logic of long-term conservation. More alarmingly, repeated exposure to extreme weather was linked to the adoption of maladaptive strategies — particularly deforestation for livestock grazing. It is an act that provides quick cash and meat on the table, but at the expense of soil quality, biodiversity, and ultimately, the very ecosystem that sustains their livelihoods.

Beyond economics, the study highlights a psychological twist worthy of Greek tragedy: when adversity feels insurmountable, people stop believing in solutions. The researchers describe how farmers caught in what they call “climate traps” become increasingly fatalistic, perceiving their situation as hopeless. This resignation leads to diminished investment in adaptive practices, creating a self-perpetuating cycle of environmental decline and economic desperation. As Dr Chiapetti grimly notes, “These traps worsen both environmental and economic conditions, leaving farmers with fewer options to break free.” It is, in effect, a climate quicksand — the harder one struggles, the deeper one sinks.

Dr da Rocha adds a dose of realism tinged with irony: “Many producers fear that climate change will only intensify, so they choose immediate relief — even when it undermines long-term resilience.” It is a kind of pragmatic pessimism: if one suspects the sky will fall tomorrow, why bother building a barn today? Yet this logic, while understandable, underscores the need for policies that make sustainability possible, not merely desirable. Farmers are rational actors in an irrational climate, making choices that appear perfectly logical in the short term, even if they are collectively disastrous over time.

The study’s implications extend well beyond Bahia’s cocoa fields. The authors argue that these local struggles mirror a broader global predicament — the fragile interdependence between vulnerable producers and the international supply chains that rely on them. Cocoa, after all, does not materialise magically in our chocolate bars; it is coaxed from the earth by individuals whose decisions are shaped by immediate necessity. For policymakers and corporations, the message is clear: support cannot stop at technical training or financial aid. Accurate adaptation requires addressing the psychological and social dimensions of decision-making under stress. As Dr Tampe eloquently concludes, “By understanding how vulnerable producers make decisions under climate strain, we can design support systems that build real resilience — not just patchwork survival.”

Ultimately, the study offers both a warning and a glimmer of hope. The warning is that without coordinated, empathetic intervention, the current trajectory risks eroding the ecological foundations of agricultural livelihoods across the Global South. The hope — and it is a stubborn, green shoot of hope — lies in the possibility of reimagining adaptation as a partnership between science, policy, and the human spirit. Farmers, after all, have weathered storms before; the challenge now is ensuring that their fight for survival does not become the cause of their undoing. If nothing else, perhaps this study will persuade us that sustainability, like good cocoa, requires patience, care, and a refusal to settle for the quick fix — however tempting it may be when the droughts roll in.

More information: Lucrezia Nava et al, Die now of hunger or later of thirst: Understanding climate change adaptation decisions in vulnerable contexts, Strategic Management Journal. DOI: 10.1002/smj.3709

Journal information: Strategic Management Journal Provided by Strategic Management Society

Cambridge Scientist’s Open Letter to Greggs Reveals the Surprising Trick That Could Double Vegan Sausage Roll Sales

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A groundbreaking new study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems has revealed a strikingly effective strategy for increasing the consumption of low-emission foods, potentially reshaping how sustainability is approached in consumer behaviour research. The study was led by Dr Chris Macdonald, a Cambridge scientist and Director of the Better Protein Institute, whose “nudge by proxy” method focuses on appealing to people’s personal motivations rather than their environmental conscience. In a series of large-scale experiments involving 3,000 participants, this approach more than doubled the selection of meat-free meals, proving significantly more successful than the traditional carbon footprint labelling techniques often used to promote sustainable food choices. The results suggest that behavioural change in favour of sustainability may be more easily achieved when interventions are designed from the consumer’s perspective rather than that of environmental advocates.

At the heart of Dr Macdonald’s research lies a crucial psychological insight: the “false consensus effect”, which leads individuals to overestimate the extent to which others share their values and beliefs. He argues that this effect can cause researchers, particularly those with strong environmental convictions, to design interventions that mirror their own motivations rather than those of the general public. “Researchers who are environmentalists may assume that emphasising climate impacts will sway others in the same way it persuades them,” Dr Macdonald explains. “I call this the environmentalist bias.” To counter this, he adopts a participatory approach that involves engaging directly with consumers before creating new behavioural interventions, ensuring that his designs are aligned with what genuinely influences their choices.

The study began with an extensive survey of 1,500 consumers, which identified a consistent concern among respondents: that meat-free diets might lack sufficient protein. Dr Macdonald terms this widespread misconception the “insufficiency illusion”—a false belief that plant-based meals are nutritionally inferior. Drawing on this insight, his team developed a simple yet powerful intervention: a label that highlighted the protein content of meat-free foods, rather than their environmental benefits. This slight but strategic shift reframed the narrative around plant-based options, emphasising their nutritional strengths. One of the most striking examples came from Greggs’ Vegan Sausage Roll, which, contrary to popular perception, not only produces fewer greenhouse gas emissions and contains less fat than the traditional sausage roll, but also offers more protein. The same holds for Greggs’ breakfast roll range, reinforcing the notion that meat-free alternatives can be both nutritious and satisfying.

The experiments revealed that such a seemingly minor adjustment in messaging could produce extraordinary results. “By simply highlighting the protein content, we were able to shift an unprecedented number of consumers towards meat-free choices,” says Dr Macdonald. In the control group, less than a quarter of participants chose the meat-free option, while in the group exposed to the protein label, over half did so—an increase of more than 100 per cent. The finding held steady across genders and age groups, making it one of the most consistent effects observed in sustainable food research to date. This dramatic behavioural shift transformed the meat-free choice from a minority preference into the majority decision, marking what Dr Macdonald describes as a “step-change” in the effectiveness of interventions aimed at reducing dietary emissions.

Following the success of his experiments, Dr Macdonald took the unusual step of directly sharing his findings with Greggs, the UK’s leading bakery chain and the company behind the famed Vegan Sausage Roll. He published an open letter on social media. He sent detailed communications to key Greggs executives, including CEO Roisin Currie, Head of Sustainability Paul Irwin-Rhodes, Customer & Marketing Director Hannah Squirrell, Product Development & Innovation Lead Sarah Graham, Brand Communications & Creative Lead Fiona Mills, and Head of Brand and Communications Ian White. His message to them was clear: Greggs now has a data-backed opportunity not only to boost sales but to enhance its reputation as a sustainability leader. “At the Better Protein Institute, we are committed to turning research into tangible impact,” Dr Macdonald explained. “That is why I have shared the results with Greggs and offered to collaborate with them—they have my contact information. The ball is in their court now.”

In reflecting on the broader implications of his work, Dr Macdonald challenges what he sees as a defeatist narrative surrounding sustainable consumption. “A rising tide of global meat consumption fuels a dangerous idea—that changing eating habits is too difficult,” he warns. “My work provides a defiant counter-narrative. With a data-driven approach, I continue to uncover new interventions that outperform traditional strategies.” His philosophy, which he describes as “data-driven, defiant optimism in action,” rests on a belief that real progress comes from understanding human psychology, engaging meaningfully with consumers, and resisting the pessimism that often clouds environmental discourse. If widely adopted, his “nudge by proxy” method could redefine how businesses and policymakers encourage sustainable choices—showing that the path to a greener future may begin not with moral pressure, but with empathy, insight, and a clear understanding of what truly motivates people.

More information: Chris Macdonald, Reducing meat consumption with consumer insights and the nudge by proxy: the anomaly of asking, the power of protein, and illusions of insufficiency and availability, Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2025.1656336

Journal information: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems Provided by Lucy Cavendish College, University of Cambridge

When Washington tried to dry up the money—and the boom rolled on

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In 2013, the United States Department of Justice discreetly inaugurated a controversial financial initiative known as Operation Choke Point, conceived as an indirect means of regulating morally contentious industries without resorting to new legislation. Its objective was to pressure banks into severing relationships with legal yet socially disapproved businesses, thereby denying them access to essential financial services. These included payday lenders, firearms and ammunition dealers, tobacco sellers, online gambling operators, and even escort services—industries regarded as high-risk or socially harmful. By urging banks to withdraw credit and terminate accounts, the government aimed to financially strangle these sectors, effectively starving them out of the market. It was a subtle form of economic policing, achieved not through explicit bans or acts of Congress but through regulatory insinuation and fear of reprisal.

The strategy relied heavily on informal coercion rather than statutory authority. Federal agencies issued cautionary guidance implying that banks associated with specific “high-risk” clients could face heightened scrutiny, investigations, or reputational damage. For institutions already wary of costly compliance checks, the message was unmistakable. Many chose to quietly end relationships with customers in these disfavoured industries, even when no wrongdoing had occurred. In essence, Operation Choke Point transformed moral disapproval into financial pressure, turning the banking sector into an instrument of state policy. The approach was both practical and opaque in the short term, as it circumvented public debate by enlisting private financial intermediaries as enforcers. Yet beneath its surface lay a troubling precedent: the state’s ability to use the credit system as a means of informal punishment, blurring the line between regulation and coercion.

A decade later, the long-term effects of this initiative were rigorously examined by economists from the University of Rochester, the University of Michigan, the University of Maryland, and the Federal Reserve Board, with their findings published in the Journal of Financial Economics. Their analysis concluded unequivocally that Operation Choke Point had failed to achieve its primary goal. As Billy Xu, assistant professor of finance at Rochester’s Simon Business School and a co-author of the study, explained, while targeted banks did reduce lending to controversial firms, the overall credit availability to these industries remained essentially unchanged. The reason was simple: companies quickly formed new relationships with non-targeted banks. Those lenders, unburdened by federal pressure, seized the opportunity to attract profitable clients. Thus, although the Department of Justice succeeded in compelling compliance from some institutions, it utterly failed to deprive the affected industries of financing.

The research, drawing on confidential Federal Reserve data covering more than 5,600 firms, revealed a nuanced picture. Small and medium-sized businesses within targeted sectors experienced measurable strain—a roughly 10 per cent reduction in available credit, shorter loan maturities, stricter collateral requirements, and in some cases, abrupt termination of accounts. However, the largest corporations in these industries weathered the storm with ease. They possessed stronger reputations, greater financial leverage, and broader access to credit markets. Some even increased their borrowing as a precautionary buffer. The result was a redistribution of financial stress, with the small suffering while the large endured or even prospered. Operation Choke Point, intended to punish entire industries, instead accentuated existing inequalities, demonstrating how targeted financial restrictions can unintentionally consolidate market power among dominant players.

The study’s broader conclusion was sobering. Operation Choke Point succeeded in intimidating banks but failed to “choke” the industries themselves. The flow of credit proved too adaptive, too decentralised to be constrained by selective intervention. As Xu aptly observed, “As one bank gives up business, another bank steps in and takes advantage of that.” The metaphor often repeated by the researchers likened the policy to turning off only a few taps in a running water system—the flow is redirected elsewhere. The programme’s limited scope was its undoing: it targeted only a subset of large banks, leaving smaller and regional lenders free to fill the vacuum. By 2017, amid lawsuits, congressional inquiries, and widespread criticism that the initiative constituted government overreach, Operation Choke Point was formally terminated. It became a symbol of how informal regulation, no matter how well-intentioned, can backfire when it collides with the adaptability of markets.

Ultimately, the legacy of Operation Choke Point is one of caution rather than triumph. It revealed the limits of financial pressure as a tool of social engineering, exposing the illusion that credit rationing can reshape morality or behaviour in a market-driven economy. The initiative’s quiet collapse demonstrated that capital is inherently resilient, finding new channels when old ones are blocked. Moreover, it underscored the ethical dangers of substituting informal influence for legal authority—using financial institutions to enforce values that have never been codified in law. For policymakers, activists, and regulators who believe that restricting credit can reform disfavoured sectors, the lesson is clear: markets adapt faster than mandates, and the attempt to starve industries of money rarely works. Operation Choke Point, rather than suffocating the businesses it sought to discipline, merely reaffirmed a fundamental truth of modern capitalism—that finance, like water, cannot be so easily contained.

More information: Kunal Sachdeva et al, Defunding controversial industries: Can targeted credit rationing choke firms? Journal of Financial Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104133

Journal information: Journal of Financial Economics Provided by University of Rochester

ESMT Berlin report: ESG scores carry marginal weight in Gulf financial outcomes

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Companies across the Gulf region are facing mounting pressure to comply with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards. However, the connection between strong ESG performance and improved financial results remains unclear. A recent study sheds light on this issue by exploring whether listed companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) that score highly on ESG metrics also outperform their peers financially.

The research, entitled “ESG and financial performance in the Gulf Cooperation Council,” was co-authored by Catalina Stefanescu-Cuntze, Professor of Management Science and faculty lead of the Master in Analytics and Artificial Intelligence Program at ESMT Berlin, alongside Rodrigo Tavares and Catarina Sá of Nova School of Business and Economics (Nova SBE). The article appears in the peer-reviewed open-access journal Sustainable Communities.

The authors examined 54 publicly traded firms across the seven GCC states to evaluate the relationship between ESG performance and financial outcomes. Their findings reveal a complex and counterintuitive picture. Companies with stronger financial standing are generally more inclined to invest in ESG initiatives; however, higher ESG ratings alone do not necessarily translate into superior stock market performance. In effect, the study suggests that financial health enables companies to bolster their ESG profile, rather than ESG excellence driving immediate financial rewards.

Notably, the study highlights that the influence of ESG on financial results is uneven across the region. The overall picture is skewed by the dominance of a handful of large and well-capitalised firms, particularly in the finance and energy sectors, which enjoy both substantial resources and strategic importance in national development agendas. For investors, this means ESG ratings in the Gulf cannot yet serve as reliable predictors of future returns. “Our findings indicate that ESG performance in the Gulf is advancing, but its financial implications differ from those observed in many developed markets,” explained Stefanescu-Cuntze. “Here, ESG appears to be shaped more by government policy and institutional commitments than by market dynamics.”

Beyond its immediate insights, the paper makes a broader contribution to the global debate on sustainable finance by highlighting the importance of regional context. In markets where sustainability considerations have not yet become central to investor decision-making, companies may prioritise ESG not primarily for financial advantage but to align with government visions and long-term national transition strategies. The authors argue that this pattern is particularly salient in the Gulf, where the global implications of economic transformation and sustainability are profound.

More information: Rodrigo Tavares et al, ESG-financial performance in the Gulf region: a bidirectional examination, Sustainable Communities. DOI: 10.1080/29931282.2025.2560305

Journal information: Sustainable Communities Provided by ESMT Berlin

Experts Call for Country-Specific Climate Solutions

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The debate on carbon dioxide pricing has increasingly occupied public discussions, yet relatively few experts are given a platform to share their views. This lack of expert representation makes it difficult to establish whether professionals agree on how climate policy should be designed and implemented. Recognising this gap, Associate Professor of Economics Frikk Nesje from the University of Copenhagen, in collaboration with colleagues in Germany and Switzerland, undertook a comprehensive survey to capture expert opinions. The project aimed to clarify preferences regarding critical policy tools, such as whether carbon taxation or quota trading is preferable, how border carbon adjustments should operate in international trade, and how revenues generated through climate policy should be utilised.

The survey, which canvassed the perspectives of more than 400 international climate policy experts, is the largest of its kind to date. Its findings underscore the complexity of the issue and the absence of a one-size-fits-all solution. Instead, the results reveal that expert recommendations vary significantly depending on geographical location, a country’s stage of economic development, and professional orientation. These variations highlight the importance of tailoring climate policies to specific national contexts rather than imposing uniform solutions that may not be feasible or effective everywhere.

One of the most striking findings was the clear preference for carbon taxation over quota trading. Twice as many experts supported taxation as opposed to systems like the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Yet this headline figure conceals critical regional disparities. In wealthier countries such as Denmark and the United States, experts strongly favour taxes, emphasising their straightforward design and revenue-generating potential. By contrast, respondents from lower-income countries often lean towards quota trading because such systems are perceived as easier to introduce administratively and more flexible in terms of revenue sharing between nations. This contrast reflects the broader reality that institutional and economic capacity shape what is politically and practically achievable.

Despite differences over taxation and trading, there is remarkable unity on the issue of border carbon adjustment. A striking 74 per cent of experts support introducing some mechanism to equalise the carbon costs of imports and exports. In practice, this would mean taxing imported goods to match the carbon tax levels of the importing country, while compensating carbon-intensive domestic exports. The consensus here is notable given the formidable legal and technical challenges associated with such mechanisms. It reflects growing recognition that without border adjustments, climate policies risk creating distortions in global competitiveness and encouraging carbon leakage, where industries relocate to jurisdictions with weaker climate rules. The prominence of this measure in current debates is also evident in its central role in the European Union’s new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

When considering how revenues should be spent, the survey revealed less agreement. The most widely supported option was investing in green research and development, with many experts emphasising the need to accelerate technological innovation to meet climate goals. Close behind was the idea of compensating households most negatively affected by rising energy costs and other burdens created by climate policies. By contrast, there was relatively little support for proposals to distribute revenues evenly as lump-sum payments to households—a measure frequently promoted in North American debates.

The divisions over revenue use reflect underlying disciplinary perspectives. Economists in the survey were more inclined to recommend options that improve efficiency, such as lowering distortionary taxes or providing targeted transfers. Experts from other professional backgrounds, however, tended to favour public investment in green technologies and infrastructure, arguing that these approaches are more politically palatable and visible to citizens. Nesje notes that this divergence mirrors a classic tension between economic theory and political realism. Both perspectives matter, he argues, because climate policy must be both economically sound and politically feasible to achieve broad acceptance and long-term effectiveness.

The survey thus provides decision-makers with an invaluable knowledge base, bringing together expert views from around the world to illuminate both points of agreement and areas of divergence. By acknowledging these nuances, governments can design climate policies that are not only environmentally effective but also economically and socially just. The key message is that while global challenges demand international cooperation, the pathways to climate solutions must reflect the distinct circumstances of each country.

More information: Frikk Nesje et al, Designing Carbon Pricing Policies Across the Globe, Environmental and Resource Economics. DOI: 10.1007/s10640-025-01036-3

Journal information: Environmental and Resource Economics Provided by University of Copenhagen

Where financial advisors come from matters for their ethical choices

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A new study has found that the environment in which financial advisors were raised exerts a powerful influence on their ethical outlook as adults, shaping the likelihood of misconduct within the industry. The research indicates that an advisor’s upbringing is a significant predictor of whether they will later engage in professional misconduct, even when they no longer reside or work in the same communities where they grew up. In other words, the cultural norms of childhood environments leave an enduring mark on professional behaviour that transcends geography.

“This study underscores that the environment we grow up in has a lasting impact on our adult behaviour,” says Jesse Ellis, co-author of the paper and Alan T. Dickson Distinguished Professor of Finance at North Carolina State University’s Poole College of Management. “If we want to promote ethical conduct in the financial advisor sector, cultural influences must be part of the conversation.” Ellis notes that earlier research revealed one in thirteen advisors had committed at least one case of documented misconduct, and that those individuals often remained in the profession. Because clients typically lack the expertise to assess the value of financial products and services accurately, advisors have opportunities to exploit this gap, profiting at the expense of those they serve.

Although regulations exist to deter misconduct, Ellis stresses that such safeguards are challenging to enforce effectively. This makes individual commitment to ethical behaviour the primary protection for clients. “Given how vulnerable this sector is to misconduct, we wanted to explore the deeper factors that influence these ethical decisions,” Ellis explains. To address this, the researchers turned their attention to the environments that shaped advisors during childhood, seeking to understand how cultural norms and local behaviours might establish an advisor’s ethical compass long before they enter the workforce.

The study analysed records from 86,766 financial advisors, mapping them to 2,489 counties where they grew up and 1,720 counties where they later worked. Researchers also incorporated data from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and state regulatory agencies to establish the histories of misconduct among advisors. To quantify the cultural backdrop of each advisor’s upbringing, the team used a “misbehaviour index,” which draws on six indicators: corporate financial misconduct, political corruption, advisor misconduct, stock option backdating, spousal infidelity, and questionable financial ties between doctors and drug companies. Counties were given scores, with higher scores reflecting higher levels of misbehaviour.

The results were precise. Advisors raised in counties with higher misconduct scores were significantly more likely to engage in misconduct as adults. This trend persisted even when the advisors had moved away from their home counties, and it remained even after controlling for a range of demographic variables. “The findings demonstrate a strong link between the ethical climate of a childhood environment and later professional behaviour,” Ellis says. “It’s not a guarantee that someone from a high-misbehaviour area will act unethically, but the risk is notably greater. The cultural norms of a community leave a lasting imprint on individuals.”

For policymakers and industry leaders, the implications are stark. If ethical foundations are deeply ingrained during one’s formative years, then short-term training schemes or superficial compliance workshops are unlikely to curb misconduct effectively. Instead, Ellis and his co-authors suggest that a more substantial approach is needed — one that recognises cultural influences and works proactively to foster a stronger culture of integrity across the sector. “This study makes it clear that ethical training cannot be an afterthought,” Ellis concludes. “We hope it sparks more thoughtful strategies to influence advisor behaviour in ways that genuinely protect clients and build trust in the industry.”

More information: Jesse Ellis et al, Childhood Exposure to Misbehavior and the Culture of Financial Misconduct, Review of Financial Studies. DOI: 10.1093/rfs/hhaf075

Journal information: Review of Financial Studies Provided by North Carolina State University

Say goodbye to online meeting burnout

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When the COVID-19 pandemic confined millions to their homes, endless hours spent in front of a webcam gave rise to a new expression: “Zoom fatigue.” The phrase quickly entered everyday vocabulary and was widely reported in the media as shorthand for the exhaustion many people felt after online meetings. According to Junior Professor Hadar Nesher Shoshan of Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU), that perception reflected the reality of the time. “During lockdown, there is no doubt that people were drained by video calls,” she notes. “But our latest research suggests that under present conditions, this is no longer the case. In fact, video meetings today do not appear to be any more tiring than face-to-face encounters.” The team’s findings have just been published in the Journal of Occupational Health Psychology.

The study was conducted in collaboration with Assistant Professor Wilken Wehrt of Maastricht University and involved 125 participants who recorded their experiences of everyday meetings over 10 days. The researchers collected information on 945 meetings in total, with 62 per cent of these meetings taking place online. Participants were asked to note whether their meetings were virtual or in person, whether they multitasked during them, whether they had the opportunity to take a break or move around, and how exhausted they felt afterwards. This systematic approach allowed the researchers to make direct comparisons between meeting formats. “Our starting assumption was that Zoom fatigue would still be evident, since almost all previous studies had reached that conclusion,” explains Nesher Shoshan. “To our surprise, the data showed no such pattern. We found no evidence that online meetings were more fatiguing than traditional meetings. In fact, video meetings lasting under 44 minutes were reported to be less exhausting than their in-person counterparts.”

One of the central questions arising from these results is why they diverge from earlier studies. The answer, the researchers argue, lies in the timing of data collection. Almost all existing studies relied on information gathered during the height of the pandemic, when online meetings were inseparably linked with lockdown conditions, social restrictions, and a general sense of disruption. “It is much more likely that fatigue was not caused by the digital format of the meetings themselves, but by the wider context of the pandemic,” says Nesher Shoshan. “Video calls became symbols of isolation, monotony, and the loss of normal working and social life. Our findings emphasise how essential it is in the social sciences to replicate research under new circumstances, because the historical context shapes the results.”

The new evidence carries significant implications for the ongoing debates about remote work and hybrid arrangements. Concerns about burnout, loss of engagement, and diminished well-being in home-working contexts often hinge on the belief that online meetings are inherently draining. This study undercuts that assumption. As Nesher Shoshan points out, the results demonstrate that the supposed “disadvantage” of digital meetings is not a fixed truth, but rather a product of an extraordinary moment in history. “At the very least, our work challenges the claim that employees working from home are automatically more at risk of meeting-related exhaustion,” she explains. “If anything, when structured properly and kept reasonably short, online meetings can be just as sustainable as traditional ones.”

In retrospect, the term “Zoom fatigue” may have been less about technology and more about the psychological toll of an unprecedented crisis. The confinement of lockdown, the blurring of work–life boundaries, and the absence of informal social interaction all converged on the digital meeting as the visible culprit. Now, with more balance restored to working life and with people better adapted to virtual communication, the fatigue once attributed to Zoom seems to have faded.

For researchers, the lesson is twofold. First, it illustrates the importance of revisiting widely accepted claims with fresh data, rather than assuming that findings remain universally valid. Second, it demonstrates how social and psychological phenomena can be deeply intertwined with their historical context. For practitioners and organisations, the findings are equally valuable. They suggest that fears about the exhausting nature of online collaboration may be overstated in the post-pandemic workplace, clearing the way for more confident adoption of hybrid work models without the looming spectre of fatigue.

Ultimately, the research reframes the story of Zoom fatigue from a universal truth into a temporary chapter in the history of work. Far from being an inevitable feature of online interaction, fatigue appears to have been an artefact of pandemic conditions. As this new study demonstrates, digital meetings today are no more inherently draining than their face-to-face equivalents—and sometimes, they may even prove to be the more refreshing option.

More information: Hadar Nesher Shoshan et al, “Zoom fatigue” revisited: Are video meetings still exhausting post-COVID-19? Journal of Occupational Health Psychology. DOI: 10.1037/ocp0000409

Journal information: Journal of Occupational Health Psychology Provided by Johannes Gutenberg Universitaet Mainz

What EU Data Protection Laws Mean for Media and Journalism Online

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In May 2018, the European Union (EU) introduced the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a landmark element of its privacy legislation. From the outset, privacy rules of this kind were met with scepticism by the online advertising industry, which warned that such restrictions would damage the digital economy. Critics argued that by limiting online tracking and disrupting targeted advertising, the GDPR would erode publishers’ capacity to generate revenue, ultimately threatening the sustainability of free, high-quality online content. Yet, despite these concerns, comparatively little attention has been paid to examining how the regulation has actually shaped the relationship between news and media websites and their audiences.

A new longitudinal study has sought to fill this gap by analysing how news and media providers in both the EU and the United States adapted to the GDPR in the months and years following its implementation. The researchers focused on whether restrictions on data collection altered patterns of content production and audience engagement. Their findings suggest that, although EU websites made adjustments, they continued to produce high-quality material and maintain audience engagement at levels broadly similar to those of their U.S. counterparts.

The research, conducted by teams from Carnegie Mellon University, MIT, Institut Mines Télécom Business School, and Cornell University, appears in Management Science. According to Vincent Lefrere of Institut Mines Télécom, a co-author of the study, the central question concerned the balance between privacy protection and the economic needs of content providers. “Content providers rely heavily on online advertising,” Lefrere explains. “The GDPR raised fears that restrictions on the data flows underpinning programmatic ads would threaten their ability to function. This raised fundamental questions about how to reconcile privacy regulation with broader societal interests.”

To answer these questions, the researchers examined nearly 1,000 websites across France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Drawing on data collected at regular intervals between April 2017 and November 2019, the study compared the responses of EU-based websites, which are directly subject to GDPR obligations, with those of U.S. websites, which are less directly affected by the regulation. The analysis revealed marked differences in behaviour. Both EU and U.S. providers initially reduced visitor tracking after the GDPR came into force, though this decline was temporary. However, EU websites ultimately stabilised at significantly lower tracking levels than before, particularly in relation to both EU and U.S. visitors. Moreover, EU websites were far more likely to adopt consent mechanisms than their American counterparts.

These trends reflected the different regulatory environments in which the websites operated, reinforced by the fact that EU websites drew most of their visitors from within the EU. In contrast, U.S. websites were primarily frequented by domestic audiences. Strikingly, however, the regulation did not appear to undermine EU providers’ ability to produce and share content. Using multiple methods and outcome measures, the study found no statistically significant evidence of reduced content availability or engagement relative to U.S. websites. While there was a slight decline in the average number of page views per visitor on EU sites, other indicators—such as total traffic, site rankings, and social media reactions—remained largely unaffected.

The authors conclude that EU websites adapted to the GDPR’s constraints in ways that mitigated the feared consequences. As Cristobal Cheyre of Cornell University observes, “A negative impact of the GDPR on consumer-facing metrics should not have been taken for granted. Our findings show that businesses were able to adjust, and in doing so, minimised any potential negative outcomes.”

Nevertheless, the researchers caution against over-generalising their results. Their analysis does not extend to the long-term implications of the GDPR, nor does it evaluate whether differing levels of privacy protection may have altered the quality of user experiences across EU and U.S. sites. Even so, the results challenge the industry’s initial claims of imminent disaster. As Alessandro Acquisti of MIT Sloan, another co-author, notes: “Although the ad-tech industry predicted dire consequences, our study shows that EU content providers weathered the transition without the collapse many anticipated. These findings are highly relevant to ongoing debates about regulating privacy and corporate data practices.”

More information: Vincent Lefrere et al, Does Privacy Regulation Harm Content Providers? A Longitudinal Analysis of the Impact of the GDPR, Management Science. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.03186

Journal information: Management Science Provided by Carnegie Mellon University

From reverie to revelation: daydreaming linked to greater sense of purpose at work, WashU research shows

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The stories of leaders whose sudden insights transformed their careers are almost legendary. From Julia Child discovering her culinary voice at fifty, to Sara Blakely channelling her frustrations into Spanx, to Jeff Bezos leaving Wall Street to seize the internet boom, such moments of clarity often change the course of lives. These epiphanies — sudden realisations that reshape how people view themselves — can inject personal and professional journeys with renewed conviction and motivation.

Sometimes epiphanies emerge after dramatic events, like a 9/11 survivor pursuing a lifelong dream, but they can also appear unexpectedly. Erik Dane, professor of organisational behaviour at Washington University’s Olin Business School, was intrigued by their power. Though initially hesitant to study such an elusive subject, he embarked on research that revealed how epiphanies influence confidence, leadership, and collaboration, and how they can redefine career purpose.

In a recent study published in the Journal of Management, Dane and his colleagues from Washington University, Erasmus University, and Rice University examined how epiphanies might be cultivated rather than left to chance. They found that “problem-solving daydreaming” — a playful form of mind wandering — increases the likelihood of experiencing strong work-related epiphanies, particularly among people driven to solve complex problems. Such individuals are naturally curious, and when their minds wander, they return to challenges that matter most to them.

Across several studies with MBA students and aspiring leaders, the team discovered that those who engaged in problem-solving daydreaming were more likely to report meaningful epiphanies about their careers. Workshops and coaching sessions offered space for reflection and imaginative thinking, further boosting the effect. Participants who experienced these insights reported a stronger sense of purpose in their professional lives, underscoring the transformative potential of epiphanies.

Mind wandering is effective because it loosens assumptions and invites flexible, innovative thinking. Unlike formal problem-solving, daydreaming allows ideas to flow freely, generating fresh perspectives and unexpected solutions. “By letting go of outdated beliefs about ourselves, we open the door to experiencing strong epiphanies,” Dane explained. These moments can lead to profound changes in how individuals approach their work and leadership roles.

The research carries significant implications for career development. According to Dane, people do not need to wait for life-changing events to gain clarity. Instead, cultivating environments that encourage imaginative reflection — whether in classrooms, coaching, or professional settings — can spark meaningful epiphanies. Such practices help people re-examine their paths with an open mind to change, ultimately strengthening their sense of purpose and direction.

More information: Erik Dane et al, Gaining Career Purpose Through Lightning Bolts: Examining the Strength and Psychological Foundations of Work-Related Epiphanies, Journal of Management. DOI: 10.1177/01492063251348410

Journal information: Journal of Management Provided by Washington University in St. Louis

Plain packaging could curb youth vaping

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Plain packaging of vape pods reduces young people’s interest in trying them. Still, it appears to have little impact on adults, according to a new study led by researchers at University College London (UCL) and King’s College London. The findings, published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, provide timely evidence as the UK considers stricter regulations on the marketing and display of vaping products.

The study was conducted in collaboration with Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) and the Brighton and Sussex Medical School. It drew on responses from 2,770 adolescents aged 11–18 across Great Britain and 3,947 adults aged 18 and older in the UK. Participants were shown images of vape pod packs that were either fully branded with colourful logos and designs or standardised in plain white with simple black lettering. This allowed the researchers to compare the influence of packaging styles on levels of interest in vaping.

Results showed a marked contrast between the two groups. Over half of adolescents (53%) believed their peers would be interested in trying vapes when presented in branded packaging. That figure fell sharply to 38% when the same products were presented in plain white packaging. Among adults, however, there was no meaningful difference: interest remained steady whether the packaging was branded or stripped back. In addition, adults’ perceptions of vaping’s relative harm compared with smoking were not influenced by the type of packaging they viewed.

These findings come at a critical juncture. The UK government’s proposed Tobacco and Vapes Bill, currently being debated in the House of Lords, would grant new powers to regulate packaging, displays, advertising and flavour descriptors. The intention is to curb vaping’s appeal among children and teenagers while preserving its value as a harm reduction tool for adult smokers. According to ASH’s most recent survey, 7% of young people aged 11–17 in Great Britain—around 400,000 adolescents—currently vape, and two in five of them do so daily.

Dr Eve Taylor, the study’s lead author from UCL’s Department of Behavioural Science & Health, underlined the need for careful policymaking. She argued that regulation must “strike a delicate balance” by deterring children and non-smokers without discouraging smokers from switching to a less harmful alternative. She added that the results “show that regulating packaging might be helpful by reducing vaping’s appeal to adolescents but not adults,” thus moving closer to achieving that balance.

Echoing this point, Hazel Cheeseman, Chief Executive of ASH, described the findings as “important research” with direct relevance to the legislative debate. She urged Parliament to pass the Tobacco and Vapes Bill swiftly, warning that without detailed regulations in place, it would be far more challenging to reduce youth vaping while still supporting smokers who use vaping as a cessation aid.

The researchers also examined the impact of flavour descriptions and codes on interest. Some participants saw plain packs with either brand-style flavour names, such as “Blue Razz Lemonade,” more straightforward descriptors, like “Blueberry Raspberry Lemonade,” or, in the adult survey, numerical codes like “FR127.” While these adjustments made little difference to adolescents, adults who neither smoked nor vaped were less likely to be interested when shown coded flavours. The team highlighted that packaging remains a central marketing tool for vape companies, often designed with bright colours and cartoon imagery that are particularly attractive to younger audiences. Although they noted limitations—including differences in survey wording between age groups and a higher proportion of vapers in the adult sample—the researchers concluded that plain packaging could be a promising step towards protecting young people without undermining vaping’s role in harm reduction for adults.

More information: Eve Taylor et al, The effect of standardised packaging and limited flavour descriptors of vape pods among adults and youth in Great Britain: a cross-sectional between-subjects experimental study, The Lancet Regional Health – Europe. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanepe.2025.101442

Journal information: The Lancet Regional Health – Europe Provided by University College London

Frontline staff respond better to free meals than gym perks, USF research finds

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A new study from the University of South Florida reveals that frontline employees, such as cashiers and retail clerks, are far more motivated by free food and social activities than by gym memberships or traditional health perks. The findings challenge conventional thinking about workplace wellness, suggesting that the most effective benefits are those that foster a sense of community and immediate appreciation.

The research, co-authored by Dipayan Biswas, the Frank Harvey endowed professor of marketing in the Muma College of Business, examined five categories of company-sponsored wellness programmes: food, social, mindfulness, physical, and health. The study aimed to identify which benefits truly resonate with customer-facing staff, who often play a crucial role in shaping customer experiences.

Published in the Journal of Marketing Research, the study shows that initiatives such as free meals, company picnics, or after-work gatherings had the most substantial impact on employee loyalty and motivation. Workers who felt valued through these tangible perks were more likely to deliver attentive service, leading to improved customer satisfaction and higher sales. In contrast, gym memberships or flu-shot clinics were found to have little effect on motivation or performance.

The team’s conclusions were drawn from five separate investigations, including field studies, a pilot project, a meta-analysis, and a large-scale sales study conducted at a European supermarket chain. In that case, wellness benefits centred on food, social interaction, and mindfulness were linked directly to annual sales growth. Even mindfulness offerings, such as meditation rooms, provided noticeable though secondary benefits, reinforcing the importance of emotional well-being alongside social connection.

Biswas explained that the rapid global rise of workplace wellness initiatives inspired the project. With more than 90 per cent of companies worldwide now offering such programmes and spending expected to surpass $90 billion annually, understanding what actually works has become critical. The evidence suggests that the most effective investments are not always the most expensive or conventional, but rather those that provide nourishment and connection—perks that strengthen loyalty and translate into measurable gains for businesses.

More information: Dipayan Biswas et al, A Comparative Analysis of FLE Wellness Benefits and Customer Responsiveness: A Social Exchange Theory Perspective, Journal of Marketing Research. DOI: 10.1177/00222437251384248

Journal information: Journal of Marketing Research Provided by University of South Florida