A new study published in the journal New Political Economy suggests that the income gap between the Global North—the world’s advanced economies—and the Global South—the developing economies—has widened substantially over the past six decades. Conducted by economists Jason Hickel and Dylan Sullivan at the Institute for Environmental Science and Technology at the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB), Spain, the research estimates that the gap has increased by 170% to 270% since 1960. Analysing annual data from 173 countries representing 99.9% of the global population, the study challenges the widely held belief that poorer nations are steadily catching up with wealthier ones through economic growth and market liberalisation.

The researchers found that while some measures suggest limited relative convergence, the overall picture remains one of widening inequality. Since 1960, the economies of the Global North captured four to ten times more income growth than those of the Global South, depending on the method of comparison. The relative income of the Global South improved by no more than three percentage points, and even this modest gain was driven almost entirely by China’s economic rise. Excluding China, the relative position of developing economies actually deteriorated. Meanwhile, the share of the world’s population living in the Global South increased from 80% in 1960 to 86% in 2023, highlighting the persistence of the global economic divide.

China emerged as the study’s notable exception. Although it has significantly improved its relative economic standing, its GDP per capita still reaches only about 22% to 38% of the average level in the Global North. According to the authors, this places China at roughly the same relative position achieved decades ago by regions such as Latin America, West Asia and North Africa, and Eastern Europe before widespread market liberalisation. The findings suggest that China’s experience is unique rather than evidence of a broader trend of convergence among developing economies.

The study also identifies the 1980s and 1990s—the era of neoliberal reforms, structural adjustment programmes, and market liberalisation promoted by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank—as a period when inequalities between the Global North and South intensified. Four major developing regions experienced prolonged economic contractions during this period. Latin America’s income fell by 7% and required 13 years to recover, while the Middle East and North Africa saw a 25% decline with a 25-year recovery. Eastern Europe and Central Asia experienced a 36% drop over 17 years, and Sub-Saharan Africa suffered a 23% decline that took 36 years to reverse. By comparison, the Great Recession reduced incomes in advanced economies by only 4%, with recovery occurring within six years.

Although several countries, including South Korea, Taiwan, Greece, Portugal and a number of Eastern European states, have been reclassified by the International Monetary Fund as advanced economies since 1980, the authors argue these cases are exceptional rather than representative. They contend that these countries were incorporated into the economic core largely because of geopolitical considerations, particularly during and after the Cold War. The study notes that the United States provided extensive economic and military assistance to strategic allies, citing South Korea and Israel as examples of countries that received extraordinary levels of support compared with most developing nations.

According to the researchers, the evidence challenges the conventional view that poorer countries are simply following the same development path as wealthier nations with a time lag. Instead, they argue that the divide between the Global North and South reflects structural features of the global economic system rather than a temporary development gap. They conclude that achieving sustained development in the Global South may require strengthening domestic industrial capacity, expanding South–South trade, reducing dependence on advanced economies and major reserve currencies, and addressing the structural barriers that continue to shape global economic inequality.

More information: Jason Hickel et al, The myth of catch-up development: trends in core–periphery inequality from 1960 to 2023, New Political Economy. DOI: 10.1080/13563467.2026.2659076

Journal information: New Political Economy Provided by Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona