Author Archives: support

Antitrust scrutiny threatens the loss of corporate know-how

Interlocking directorates — where the same individual sits on the boards of rival companies — have long been associated with behind-the-scenes influence and potential corporate collusion. When antitrust legislation first moved against the practice in 1914, future Supreme Court justice Louis Brandeis famously condemned it as “the root of many evils.” More than a century later, regulators have once again turned their attention to these overlapping board roles, reviving a long-standing concern about market power and unfair coordination.

Beginning in 2022, renewed enforcement efforts by US authorities triggered a wave of boardroom exits, with at least 21 directors stepping down from positions seen as problematic under competition rules. The intention was to curb anti-competitive behaviour and protect consumers, but emerging evidence suggests the crackdown may have produced unintended side effects within corporate leadership structures.

New research from Texas McCombs indicates that while regulators aimed to weaken collusion, the outcome may have been a deterioration in corporate governance driven by the loss of seasoned industry expertise. The study finds that the directors most likely to resign were those with the deepest experience, leaving companies — particularly smaller ones — without valuable institutional knowledge built up over decades.

Christian Hutzler, an assistant professor of accounting, explains that the impact extended beyond firms directly targeted by enforcement actions. Even companies not under investigation appeared to adjust their boards in response to the regulatory climate, signalling a broader chilling effect. According to Hutzler, organisations observing the crackdown often pre-emptively reshaped their leadership to avoid scrutiny, amplifying the overall loss of experience across the market.

Analysing 1.6 million director-company-month observations from 2004 to 2022, Hutzler and his co-authors found that interlocking board memberships steadily increased over nearly two decades before reversing abruptly in late 2022. In a single quarter following the enforcement surge, the proportion of interlocked directors fell by 0.8 percentage points — the steepest decline ever recorded. Those who left typically possessed an average of 47 years of board experience within their industries, while replacements, when found at all, averaged only three years. Many vacant seats remained unfilled for months, particularly at smaller firms, which were far more likely to lose the shared director in competitive pairs.

Perhaps most strikingly, the research uncovered little evidence that interlocking directorates were driving widespread collusion in the first place. Instead, these experienced board members often strengthened oversight, pushing out underperforming executives and improving the returns on research and development spending without increasing risk. By removing some of the most capable figures in corporate governance, the crackdown may ultimately weaken firms’ ability to find qualified leadership in the future. While the shift could create opportunities for new voices, Hutzler warns that industry experience — one of the most valued traits in board appointments — may become increasingly scarce.

More information: Dain C. Donelson et al, Does antitrust enforcement against interlocking directorates impair corporate governance? Journal of Accounting and Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2025.101815

Journal information: Journal of Accounting and Economics Provided by University of Texas at Austin

Broadening Free Delivery Policies Can Empower Online Marketplaces

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Extending membership-based free shipping programmes to include third-party sellers can strengthen online marketplaces rather than weaken them, according to new research published in the INFORMS journal Information Systems Research. The study suggests that initiatives similar to Amazon’s “Buy with Prime” have the potential to increase marketplace commission revenue while easing shipping pressures, even when the logistics services themselves are not directly profitable.

The peer-reviewed findings indicate that when free-shipping benefits are broadened beyond in-house sellers to external merchants, overall marketplace profitability can improve. Although such moves are often assumed to divert sales away from internal sellers, the research shows they can instead reinforce core revenue streams and enhance marketplace efficiency.

The study, titled Unveiling the Strategic Impacts of Extending Membership-Based Free Shipping Programs Beyond the Online Marketplaces, was authored by Geng Sun of the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, alongside Huseyin Cavusoglu and Srinivasan Raghunathan of the University of Texas at Dallas. The researchers focused on understanding how expanded free-shipping programmes reshape competitive behaviour across digital retail platforms.

“Marketplaces often believe that extending free-shipping benefits beyond their own platforms will inevitably cannibalise their core business,” Sun explained. “Our results show the opposite. Under many realistic conditions, these programmes reinforce rather than erode existing revenue streams.”

Cavusoglu added that expanding free shipping fundamentally alters the strategic interaction between internal sellers and outside merchants. What may initially be lost sales can generate new pathways for marketplace profitability as sellers adjust pricing and competitive strategies in response to the broader programme.

Using a game-theoretic model of online retail competition, the researchers found that both internal and external sellers can benefit from extended free shipping, provided delivery costs remain within certain limits. While member shoppers may face higher prices as market dynamics shift, non-members who always pay for shipping are consistently worse off. Overall, the study concludes that even when logistics services are not profitable on their own, extended free shipping programmes can still enhance the marketplace’s core business performance.

More information: Geng Sun et al, Unveiling the Strategic Impacts of Extending Membership-Based Free Shipping Programs Beyond the Online Marketplaces, Information Systems Research. DOI: 10.1287/isre.2024.1196

Journal information: Information Systems Research Provided by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences

Encouraged in Theory, Rejected in Practice: The Cost of Consumer Stigma

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A newly released study in the Journal of Consumer Psychology highlights a quiet contradiction within ethical consumer behaviour. While many shoppers express strong moral approval for companies that employ people experiencing homelessness, those same consumers often become less inclined to purchase from those businesses. Beneath public support lies a more profound social discomfort that subtly shapes buying decisions, revealing how good intentions do not always translate into real-world action.

The research was led by Brandon Reich, an Associate Professor of Marketing at Portland State University, and focused on a growing business practice known as impact hiring. This approach centres on employing individuals from marginalised communities as a way to create social good alongside commercial success. Through five carefully designed experiments, the researchers examined how consumers reacted when they learned a company hired people experiencing homelessness, tracking both moral judgment and purchase behaviour.

Across the studies, participants consistently praised the companies for doing the right thing. However, when it came to evaluating the products themselves, a different pattern emerged. Purchase intentions dropped noticeably once the hiring practice became prominent. The researchers traced this response to unconscious “contagion concerns” — emotional reactions rooted in long-standing social stigma rather than rational assessment of product quality or company values.

This disconnect illustrates what the authors describe as a Say–Do Gap. Consumers may genuinely believe a company is ethical and socially responsible, yet instinctive feelings of discomfort override those beliefs. The presence of homeless employees triggered automatic emotional responses, particularly disgust, linked to stereotypes about hygiene, safety, and risk. Even though participants knew these reactions were unfair, the emotions still influenced their choices at the checkout.

Reich explained that when people experiencing homelessness were placed in visible, customer-facing roles, consumers often claimed to support the initiative but were simultaneously less likely to buy from the company. The stigma surrounding homelessness quietly shaped perceptions of the products themselves, leading shoppers to distance themselves despite their stated moral approval. It was not a conscious rejection, but an emotional reflex driven by deeply ingrained bias.

The study also explored ways businesses could counteract this effect without abandoning their social mission. One particularly effective solution involved using social proof in marketing. When consumers were shown that many other people already purchased and enjoyed the products, their concerns diminished. Signals of popularity and trust helped reassure shoppers about safety and quality, weakening the emotional response linked to stigma.

These findings offer a hopeful message for socially driven companies. With thoughtful communication strategies, businesses can support marginalised workers while maintaining consumer confidence and sales. More broadly, the research exposes how ethical values often compete with unconscious emotional reactions in everyday decisions. Understanding this tension is crucial for creating markets where social impact and commercial success can truly work hand in hand.

More information: Brandon J. Reich et al, Homelessness-based impact hiring and consumers’ contagion concerns, Journal of Consumer Psychology. DOI: 10.1002/jcpy.70010

Journal information: Journal of Consumer Psychology Provided by Portland State University

Major FAU/CSU study reveals more paid time off helps retain American workers

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At the peak of the “Great Resignation” in 2021, more than 50 million people across the United States left their jobs, driven by rising stress levels, burnout and changing expectations about work-life balance. Nearly half of those who quit pointed to poor or insufficient benefits as a significant reason for their departure. This unprecedented wave of resignations highlighted how deeply employees value support that allows them to rest, recover and manage personal responsibilities alongside their professional lives.

Among wealthy nations, the United States remains the only country that does not guarantee paid time off, including paid holidays, vacation days or maternity leave. Across the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, such protections are considered basic employment standards. Although some employers have expanded PTO offerings in recent years, many workers still receive no paid leave at all, and fewer than half benefit from consolidated leave policies that combine personal, sick and holiday time.

The financial impact of high employee turnover is substantial, with the cost of replacing a single worker often reaching the equivalent of a full year’s salary once recruitment, training and lost productivity are factored in. A new long-term study suggests that robust PTO policies are essential for reducing these losses. Using 18 years of national data and more than 32,000 observations, researchers examined how different levels of paid time off influence voluntary resignations.

The study was the first to apply the Conservation of Resources Theory to PTO, which proposes that employees are more likely to remain in their roles when they have sufficient time to restore their energy and cope with personal demands. Rather than simply measuring whether paid leave exists, researchers explored how varying amounts affect turnover, paying special attention to early-career men and women and how their responses differ over time.

Results showed that offering just one to five days of paid time off produced only minor reductions in quitting and little impact when genders were analysed separately. Providing six to ten days, however, significantly lowered resignations, especially among men. The most substantial retention effect appeared when employees received 11 or more paid days off per year, with both men and women far less likely to leave their jobs.

For women, smaller amounts of PTO made little difference, but once leave exceeded 11 days, quitting dropped sharply, suggesting they generally require more time off than men to reduce turnover meaningfully. Although men already resign at lower rates overall, additional PTO benefited both groups. The findings indicate that minimal leave policies are insufficient, and that meaningful time away from work is not a luxury, but a proven strategy for stability, wellbeing and long-term employee retention.

More information: Patricia Stoddard Dare et al, Does one week now prevent two weeks notice later? A longitudinal study of paid time off and employee retention, Journal of Strategy and Management. DOI: 10.1108/JSMA-02-2025-0059/1337299

Journal information: Journal of Strategy and Management Provided by Florida Atlantic University

Climate change and the new reality of doing business

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Climate change is no longer only unsettling supply chains and eroding asset values; it is also quietly influencing the way companies choose and manage their business relationships. Beyond the visible impacts on operations and infrastructure, environmental risk is now shaping strategic decisions that once seemed unrelated to climate concerns. One of the most apparent shifts is happening in how firms structure their customer bases, as executives increasingly recognise that who they depend on for revenue can either expose them to greater vulnerability or help protect them from future shocks.

New research drawing on nearly two decades of data from thousands of publicly listed companies in the United States shows a clear pattern. Businesses facing higher levels of climate-related risk are deliberately reducing their reliance on a small number of major customers. Instead of concentrating sales among a few large buyers, these firms are spreading revenue across a wider group of clients. This diversification is emerging as a practical way of managing uncertainty in a world where extreme weather, regulatory change, and environmental disruption are becoming more frequent.

Published in Business Strategy and the Environment, the study finds that climate risk is actively driving this strategic shift rather than merely coinciding with it. Companies exposed to greater threats from storms, heatwaves, flooding, or climate-related policy transitions are significantly less likely to allow a handful of customers to dominate their income. The research suggests that firms are learning from experience, adjusting their commercial structures to avoid situations where a single climate event could damage both their operations and their primary sources of revenue at the same time.

The effect is powerful among organisations with high levels of innovation, strong corporate social responsibility performance, and heavy investment in physical assets such as factories and infrastructure. These firms appear more aware that customer concentration can magnify financial shocks. When assets are expensive and difficult to relocate, losing one major customer due to climate disruption can have long-lasting consequences. Diversifying revenue streams, therefore, becomes a form of resilience, not just a growth strategy.

For investors and lenders, the findings highlight an often-overlooked dimension of climate risk. Traditional assessments tend to focus on physical exposure or carbon emissions, yet customer structure may be just as important. Companies with broad, diversified client bases may be better insulated from earnings volatility, financing stress, and sudden downturns caused by environmental events. Concentrated revenue, by contrast, can act as a pressure point when climate shocks ripple through interconnected businesses.

For boards and regulators, the study reframes customer concentration as a governance issue. Persistently high dependence on a small group of buyers in climate-exposed regions may signal weaknesses in risk management and long-term planning. Climate resilience is no longer only about where assets are located or how sustainable operations appear on paper. It is also about how exposed a company is through its commercial relationships. In today’s changing business landscape, customer concentration has quietly become a climate issue in its own right.

More information: Thi Thuy Trang Nguyen et al, Climate Change Risks and Customer Concentration: Evidence From US-Listed Firms, Business Strategy and the Environment. DOI: 10.1002/bse.70495

Journal information: Business Strategy and the Environment Provided by University of East London

Study explores the role of municipal support in boosting local commerce

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As tax season gathers momentum, many residents find themselves questioning whether the money they pay is too much. Rising costs of living often make any form of taxation feel burdensome, and local levies are no exception. Yet new research suggests that, at least in Ohio, city service taxes may be providing far more value than many people assume, particularly when it comes to supporting thriving commercial areas and long-term economic stability.

A recent study by University of Cincinnati economics professor David Brasington indicates that these municipal taxes are not excessive. Instead, they play a crucial role in maintaining the public services that keep communities functional and attractive to businesses. Funds collected go towards essential areas such as fire protection, public transport, road repairs, and the maintenance of parks and shared spaces. According to Brasington, communities that continue to invest in these services tend to experience better economic outcomes than those that choose to reduce funding.

The research, published in Regional Science and Urban Economics, examined what happened in comparable towns and cities that made different decisions about local taxes. Some communities voted to cut or reduce their service taxes, while others chose to renew them. Brasington and his team then tracked the level of commercial property redevelopment over the following years to see whether these policy choices made a measurable difference.

The contrast was striking. Areas that maintained their taxes — and therefore their public services — consistently saw more redevelopment of commercial properties than those that opted for cuts. The tax measures studied covered a broad range of everyday services, from bus drivers’ wages to landscaping in public parks. When taxes were reduced, these services were often scaled back, leading to less well-maintained infrastructure and fewer resources supporting daily community life.

Brasington explained that the message from the data was straightforward. Communities hoping to protect their commercial tax base and encourage new investment are better served by renewing local taxes rather than trimming them. This held even for towns experiencing financial pressure. While cutting taxes might seem like a quick solution or a way to attract businesses, the evidence showed that strong, reliable public services actually create a healthier environment for commercial growth.

That said, the findings were not without nuance. Most of the redevelopment benefits appeared in service-focused communities rather than manufacturing-based ones. Additionally, for cities experiencing population decline, the results were less definitive. While there were signs that maintaining public services could help encourage some redevelopment, the evidence was more suggestive than conclusive. Even so, the research challenges the common belief that lower taxes automatically lead to stronger business success, pointing instead to the importance of well-funded local services in building vibrant, resilient communities.

More information: David M. Brasington et al, Effect of local government taxes and spending on the redevelopment of commercial property, Regional Science and Urban Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2026.104202

Journal information: Regional Science and Urban Economics Provided by University of Cincinnati

How Traditional Carmakers and EV Firms Respond Unevenly to Oil and Renewable Energy Prices

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It presents a heatmap of return correlations among automaker stocks, oil price benchmarks, and clean energy indices, revealing three interrelated patterns that align closely with the study’s hypotheses. Traditional automakers such as Toyota, Honda, Ford, and GM display strong and statistically meaningful correlations with one another, ranging from 0.47 to 0.76. This high level of co-movement reflects their shared exposure to macroeconomic conditions and industrial cycles, particularly their sensitivity to oil market dynamics and broader systemic volatility. These findings reinforce the view that legacy manufacturers remain structurally linked to fossil fuel markets and are affected in similar ways by energy price fluctuations.

In contrast, EV manufacturers, especially Tesla and BYD, show noticeably weaker correlations with traditional automakers. For instance, the correlation between Tesla and Ford stands at 0.31, while BYD and GM register 0.27. These relatively low values suggest that the performance of EV stocks is driven by different underlying forces, consistent with the idea that electric vehicle firms are less directly exposed to oil price movements. Rather than tracking conventional automotive cycles, EV companies appear increasingly influenced by technology trends, innovation expectations, and alternative energy developments.

The relationship between EV manufacturers and clean energy indices further highlights this divergence. Tesla exhibits a strong correlation with the NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index at 0.63, indicating close alignment with renewable energy market dynamics. BYD’s correlation with the same index is more moderate at 0.42, which does not imply weaker engagement with clean energy but instead reflects its vertically integrated structure. BYD’s control over battery production and upstream materials reduces reliance on external energy market conditions, cushioning it from some of the volatility that affects firms more exposed to global supply chains.

Building on these correlation patterns, the broader analysis explores how oil and clean energy markets shape stock performance across the automotive sector over the period from 2013 to 2023. Using daily data and a combination of econometric techniques, including GARCH-based volatility models, dynamic correlation measures, and spillover analysis, the study captures both long-term relationships and short-term market stress effects. This approach allows for a detailed examination of how shocks propagate between energy markets and automotive equities, particularly during periods of heightened uncertainty such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

The results show that traditional automakers remain highly sensitive to oil price volatility, experiencing more substantial spillovers and greater instability when energy markets are disrupted. EV manufacturers, by contrast, are less affected by oil shocks and display closer connections to clean energy and technology-related financial trends. Periods of global crisis amplify these linkages, with volatility transmission peaking sharply during early 2020. Notably, conventional carmakers tend to absorb volatility from oil markets, while movements more influence EV firms in renewable energy indices and broader equity sectors associated with innovation.

These findings carry important implications for investors, policymakers, and corporate leaders navigating the energy transition. For investors, EV manufacturers offer potential resilience during oil market turbulence while providing exposure to clean energy growth. Policymakers can draw on this evidence to support renewable infrastructure and electrification strategies that strengthen financial and industrial stability. From a strategic perspective, BYD’s vertical integration illustrates how control over key technologies and supply chains can reduce vulnerability to fossil fuel volatility, offering a model for traditional automakers seeking to adapt to a rapidly changing energy landscape.

More information: Yi Fang et al, From oil spills to electric thrills: BYD’s rise and the market dynamics powering automaker stocks, China Finance Review International. DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-02-2025-0078

Journal information: China Finance Review International Provided by Shanghai Jiao Tong University Journal Center

Arthritis, work, and recovery: insights from physical therapy research

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New research from the University of Delaware indicates that arthritis places a substantial and often underestimated burden on working-age adults in the United States. Nearly 40% of adults aged 18 to 64 who have arthritis — almost 10 million people — report that the condition limits their ability to work. These findings challenge the widespread perception that arthritis primarily affects older adults, showing instead that it interferes with employment during people’s prime earning years and directly affects economic security and quality of life.

The study was co-authored by Daniel White, an associate professor of physical therapy, who analysed data from the 2023 National Health Interview Survey. The findings were recently published in the journal Arthritis Care & Research. White notes that the accurate scale of the issue is likely greater than the reported figures suggest, as adults aged 65 and over were excluded from the analysis due to assumptions around retirement. With rising inflation and changing labour patterns, many people are working later in life, meaning arthritis-related work limitations are probably more widespread.

Although the survey did not distinguish between different types of arthritis or specify the exact nature of work limitations, overall health emerged as a critical factor. Respondents with mobility difficulties, such as trouble walking or climbing stairs, were significantly more likely to report that arthritis interfered with their work. In fact, 68% of people with these functional challenges said arthritis imposed greater limitations on their ability to perform their jobs, underscoring the close link between physical function and employability.

The presence of other health conditions further increased the risk of work-related impairment. People with heart disease, a history of stroke, or cancer were more likely to report limitations linked to arthritis, as were those experiencing anxiety or depression. In contrast, individuals who rated their overall health as “excellent” were far less affected. Only 23% of this group reported work limitations, highlighting how general health and wellbeing can buffer the impact of arthritis on daily functioning and job performance.

Socioeconomic factors also played a significant role. While the data did not categorise respondents by occupation, it showed that Hispanic adults, veterans, and individuals without a college education were more likely to experience arthritis-related challenges at work. These patterns suggest that people engaged in manual labour or trade-based occupations may face greater physical strain. Among veterans, past combat injuries and prolonged load-bearing activities may contribute to a higher risk of osteoarthritis and long-term joint damage.

For physical therapists like White, who specialises in knee osteoarthritis, the persistence of these figures is deeply concerning. Similar levels of work limitation were reported in 2019, indicating little progress over time. Yet White stresses that arthritis is often misunderstood as an unavoidable consequence of ageing. In reality, it is highly treatable. Through medication, structured exercise, and physical therapy, many people can reduce pain, improve mobility, and regain control. Appropriate movement, rather than avoidance, remains central to maintaining independence and sustaining working lives.

More information: Ellen Stowe et al, Prevalence of Arthritis-Attributable Activity Limitations – United States, 2023, Arthritis Care & Research. DOI: 10.1002/acr.70018

Journal information: Arthritis Care & Research Provided by University of Delaware

Learning Before Leading: The Danger of Premature Strategy Statements from New CEOs

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When a new chief executive takes charge of a company, uncertainty quickly spreads through the financial markets. Among the most attentive observers are financial analysts, who meet regularly with senior leaders and shape the investment decisions of major institutional investors. These analysts look for early signals that help them understand how the firm may change under new leadership, and they are particularly alert to the timing and substance of a CEO’s first major strategic announcement. That initial communication often becomes a reference point for expectations about the organisation’s future, even though the new leader may still be getting to grips with internal realities.

Existing research offers mixed conclusions about whether speed or patience serves new CEOs best. Some studies suggest that moving quickly reassures markets and demonstrates authority, while others argue that deliberate pacing reduces the risk of costly mistakes. A recent study from the University of Notre Dame seeks to reconcile these views by introducing the concept of “new CEO strategic action speed”. This term refers to the number of days it takes a newly appointed CEO to announce the firm’s first large-scale strategic action, providing a measurable way to assess how timing affects external perceptions.

The study is led by John Busenbark, an associate professor at Notre Dame’s Mendoza College of Business. In an article titled Moderately Fast and Furious: A Screening and Behavioral Theory of New CEO Strategic Action Speed, forthcoming in the Academy of Management Journal, Busenbark argues that analysts interpret the speed of early strategic action as information in itself. Rather than favouring speed or delay outright, analysts assess timing in light of the situation the CEO inherits.

Working with colleagues from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and the University of Texas at Arlington, Busenbark finds that context is decisive. When a leadership transition is smooth and the firm is performing reasonably well, analysts generally welcome quicker strategic signals. Early announcements help them clarify the company’s outlook and pass that insight on to clients. By contrast, when a CEO is appointed during a period of turmoil or arrives with limited knowledge of the organisation, analysts tend to value a brief pause that allows the leader to understand the firm’s challenges and constraints.

That tolerance is not unlimited. The study shows that analysts’ reactions begin to turn negative once the wait for a strategic announcement extends beyond roughly 35 days. After that point, delays are increasingly interpreted as hesitation or a lack of direction. This finding is particularly striking given that most new CEOs wait well over 200 days before revealing their first primary strategy, far longer than analysts typically consider reasonable.

Drawing on data covering CEO appointments between 2005 and 2019, strategic announcements reported in business newswires, and thousands of earnings call transcripts, the researchers show how eager analysts are for early clues about direction. Questions about plans are common, yet often deflected. The study concludes with practical guidance for new CEOs: those entering turbulent situations should take some time to learn, but not so long that silence undermines confidence. Striking the right balance between learning before leading and acting promptly appears crucial for maintaining credibility in the eyes of the market.

More information: John Busenbark et al, Moderately Fast and Furious: A Screening and Behavioral Theory of New CEO Strategic Action Speed, Academy of Management Journal. DOI: 10.5465/amj.2024.0829

Journal information: Academy of Management Journal Provided by University of Notre Dame

How Feelings of Dread Influence the Decisions We Make, Research Finds

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A new study has found that people are far more emotionally affected by anticipating negative future events than by imagining positive ones. This pattern helps explain widespread discomfort with uncertainty and the tendency to want decisions settled as quickly as possible. Rather than being emotionally neutral, waiting for an outcome often generates a strong sense of dread. This emotional response means that anticipation itself becomes a powerful driver of behaviour, sometimes outweighing rational evaluations of potential benefits.

Research conducted by academics at the Universities of Bath and Waterloo in Canada shows that the emotional impact of imagining future losses is dramatically more substantial than the pleasure associated with anticipating equivalent gains. The study found that feelings of dread linked to possible losses are more than six times as intense as the enjoyment people experience when thinking about potential rewards of the same size. This stark imbalance highlights how human emotions are tilted towards the negative when considering what lies ahead.

Using large-scale UK household survey data, the researchers demonstrated that this emotional asymmetry plays a key role in shaping economic behaviour. Individuals who experience stronger negative than positive anticipatory emotions are significantly more likely to avoid risk and are less willing to wait for delayed outcomes. This remains true even when patience could lead to objectively better results. As a consequence, people may turn away from opportunities that involve uncertainty or time delays, not because those options are inferior, but because the emotional cost of waiting feels too high.

Professor Chris Dawson from the University of Bath’s School of Management explains that, for many people, the fear of what might go wrong outweighs the pleasure of imagining what might go right. Anticipating a modest loss, such as £10, can be far more emotionally painful than the satisfaction of looking forward to gaining the same amount. This imbalance influences both how much risk people are prepared to tolerate and how long they are willing to wait, shaping decisions across everyday life, including finances, careers, health choices, and general wellbeing.

Published in Cognitive Science, the study analyses data from almost 14,000 individuals collected between 1991 and 2024. This long time frame allowed researchers to examine how people’s emotional responses to expectations about their future finances affect decisions involving uncertainty and delay. Most real-world choices combine these elements. Investing money, changing jobs, or undergoing medical tests all involve uncertain outcomes that take time to resolve, making anticipatory emotions particularly influential.

The findings also confirm that losses continue to loom larger than gains once outcomes are actually experienced. The emotional impact of realised losses was found to be roughly twice as strong as that of equivalent gains, in line with established theories of loss aversion. However, the research goes further by offering a new perspective linking attitudes to risk and time. It helps explain why more risk-averse people also tend to be more impatient, suggesting both traits arise from a shared desire to reduce the emotional burden of waiting.

Co-author Dr Sam Johnson from the University of Waterloo notes that people often try to avoid choices with possible adverse outcomes and prefer those outcomes to be resolved sooner in order to minimise anticipatory dread. The study also highlights substantial individual differences. Some people experience anticipatory emotions far more vividly than others, helping to explain wide variations in risk-taking and patience across the population. Importantly, these effects remain significant even after accounting for personality, mental health, income, and education, underscoring the decisive role of emotional anticipation in everyday decision-making.

More information: Chris Dawson et al, Asymmetric Anticipatory Emotions and Economic Preferences: Dread, Savoring, Risk, and Time, Cognitive Science. DOI: 10.1111/cogs.70160

Journal information: Cognitive Science Provided by University of Bath

Almost a Third of New Software Code Is Being Written by AI

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Generative AI is rapidly reshaping software development, and the pace of change is striking. Recent research shows that AI-assisted coding has spread quickly over the past few years, although adoption varies widely across countries. In the United States, the share of newly written code created with AI support climbed from about 5 per cent in 2022 to nearly 30 per cent by early 2025. Elsewhere, the uptake has been slower, with China, for example, reaching closer to 12 per cent over the same period. These figures underline both the speed of diffusion and the uneven geography of AI use in programming.

The implications matter because software sits at the heart of the modern economy. In the United States alone, firms spend hundreds of billions of dollars each year on wages for coding and related tasks. Globally, billions of lines of software code are written and maintained every day to keep digital services, industrial systems, and consumer products running. As AI tools become embedded in everyday programming work, they are beginning to alter this critical backbone of economic activity.

The findings are based on a large-scale analysis of real-world programming behaviour. Researchers examined more than 30 million contributions written in Python by roughly 160,000 developers on GitHub, the world’s largest collaborative coding platform. Because GitHub logs every addition and modification to a codebase, it offers an unusually detailed view of how software is produced. By focusing on Python, one of the most widely used programming languages, the study captures trends that are likely representative of broader developments in the industry.

To identify AI involvement, the researchers used a specially trained model designed to detect whether segments of code were generated with the help of tools such as ChatGPT or GitHub Copilot. The results point to swift adoption, particularly in the United States. By the end of 2024, around one-third of newly written software functions will be created with AI support. At the same time, the analysis reveals substantial regional gaps. Several European countries fall behind the US but still show relatively high usage. In contrast, countries such as Russia and China lag further back, partly due to limits on access to leading AI models.

Differences also emerge between programmers themselves. The study finds no meaningful gap in AI usage between women and men. Experience, however, plays a significant role. Less experienced developers rely more heavily on generative AI, using it in over a third of their code, compared with just over a quarter for more seasoned programmers. Despite this, the measured productivity gains, averaging about 3.6 per cent by the end of 2024, are driven almost entirely by experienced developers. Beginners see little benefit, suggesting that AI does not automatically level the playing field and may even widen existing skill gaps.

Economically, even these modest productivity gains add up. Given the scale of spending on programming work in the United States, AI-assisted coding could already be generating tens of billions of dollars in additional value each year, and this is likely a conservative estimate. Looking ahead, software development is set to change even more deeply as AI becomes a core part of digital infrastructure. The key challenge for companies, policymakers, and educators will be to ensure that the advantages of AI are broadly shared, rather than reinforcing inequalities in an economy that increasingly runs on code.

More information: Simone Daniotti et al, Who is using AI to code? Global diffusion and impact of generative AI, Science. DOI: 10.1126/science.adz9311

Journal information: Science Provided by Complexity Science Hub

Why Some Messages Have Greater Persuasive Power

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What makes specific marketing messages feel convincing while others fail to inspire trust, and why do some political slogans seem to linger in people’s minds more effectively than competing claims? Recent research from the University of California, San Diego’s Rady School of Management suggests that persuasion is shaped not only by whether people agree with a message, but by how confident they feel in making that judgment. The study highlights a surprisingly small linguistic detail — whether a word has an easy, obvious opposite — as a key factor influencing belief and confidence.

According to Giulia Maimone, who conducted the research during her doctoral studies at the Rady School of Management, effective communication goes beyond agreement alone. People continuously assess whether statements are true or false, but they also develop a sense of certainty about those decisions. That sense of confidence plays a critical role in how persuasive a message becomes. Language, the research shows, can subtly strengthen or weaken that certainty, helping to explain why some messages resonate more strongly than others.

The study, forthcoming in the Journal of the Association for Consumer Research, finds that messages often hinge on the types of words they use. In particular, the researchers focus on “reversible” words, which have apparent and readily accessible opposites, such as intense and mild, or guilty and innocent. When people encounter a claim framed with such words and disagree with it, they tend to replace the original term with its opposite mentally. This process differs from how people respond to words that lack a precise opposite.

This difference matters because rejecting a reversible word requires an additional mental step. Retrieving and substituting the opposite word demands more cognitive effort, which in turn reduces people’s confidence in their opposing belief. By contrast, when a word does not have an obvious opposite, people usually negate it by adding “not”, a more straightforward process that leaves them feeling more certain in their disagreement. As a result, messages using non-reversible words often provoke stronger resistance.

For marketers and political communicators, this creates a subtle strategic advantage. When a positive claim is framed with a reversible word, people who accept the message feel confident in their belief, while those who reject it tend to feel less optimistic about their counter-argument. Even disagreement, then, becomes softer. The wording does not necessarily change minds, but it weakens the confidence of opposition, increasing the overall persuasive power of the message.

The researchers tested these ideas both in controlled experiments and in a real-world field study involving Facebook advertisements. Across more than 1,000 participants, they found that language designed to generate higher confidence judgements led to greater engagement, including higher click-through rates. Together, the findings show that persuasion depends not only on what people believe, but on how firmly they believe it — and that carefully chosen words can quietly shape that certainty.

More information: Giulia Maimone et al, How Word Reversibility Impacts Judgment Confidence, Journal of the Association for Consumer Research. DOI: 10.1086/740066

Journal information: Journal of the Association for Consumer Research Provided by University of California – San Diego