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How Tariff Policies Affect Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence from a New Japanese Study

Rising trade frictions over the past decade have intensified debate about their long-term implications for global economic growth. What began as targeted policy interventions has evolved into a sustained period of elevated tariffs between major trading partners, raising concerns that trade policy may shape not only short-term trade flows but also long-run productivity and welfare. A prominent example is the current tariff relationship between the United States and China. The United States now applies tariffs averaging 66.4 per cent on Chinese exports, far above its overall average rate of 19.3 per cent. In comparison, China has responded with retaliatory tariffs averaging 58.3 per cent on US exports, compared with its broader average of 21.1 per cent. Such measures disrupt established trade patterns and create incentives that may fundamentally alter where firms produce, invest, and innovate.

Beyond their immediate effects, tariffs can influence the geographical distribution of economic activity, an aspect that plays a critical role in long-term growth. Decisions about where industries locate are closely linked to firm-level investment, knowledge spillovers, and innovation dynamics. Trade barriers can encourage firms to relocate production or shift innovative activities across borders, thereby reshaping industrial structures in ways that persist over time. Despite its importance, this spatial dimension of trade policy has received relatively limited attention in the literature, which has often focused on aggregate outcomes rather than the mechanisms linking tariffs, industry location, and productivity growth.

This gap is addressed by economists Colin Davis of the Institute for the Liberal Arts at Doshisha University and Ken-ichi Hashimoto of the Graduate School of Economics at Kobe University. Their study adapts a two-country theoretical framework to analyse how national tariff policies influence long-run productivity growth through changes in industry location and firm investment behaviour. Building on a model they previously developed, the authors integrate international trade, industrial organisation, and endogenous productivity growth. Professor Davis notes that their work draws on more than a decade of theoretical research into the deep economic mechanisms linking innovation, industrial structure, and long-term growth, with the recent resurgence of tariffs providing a timely and relevant policy application.

The model features two countries and two industries and allows productivity growth to emerge endogenously from firms’ investment and innovation decisions. Using this framework, the researchers examine how unilateral import tariffs affect the spatial distribution of industries, the incentives for innovation, and overall welfare. Numerical simulations are used to evaluate welfare effects under different structural conditions. A key finding is that similar tariff policies can lead to very different growth outcomes across countries, depending on their existing industrial structures. By altering where industries and innovative activities are located, tariffs can either support or undermine long-run productivity growth, helping to explain why trade policies often produce heterogeneous effects across economies.

The study, published in Volume 154 of Economic Modelling in January 2026 after appearing online in November 2025, offers important practical insights. It identifies testable mechanisms—such as firm relocation, knowledge spillovers, and changes in innovation incentives—that can be explored using empirical data on trade policy and productivity. The authors argue that research building on this framework could inform better-designed trade and industrial policies over the coming decade. As Professor Davis concludes, applying this approach empirically can deepen understanding of the long-term consequences of trade interventions and help foster more stable economic conditions and improved outcomes for firms, workers, and consumers.

More information: Colin Davis et al, Asymmetric tariffs and productivity growth in an endogenous market structure, Economic Modelling. DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107383

Journal information: Economic Modelling Provided by Doshisha University

Diabetes imposes a multi-trillion-dollar toll on the global economy

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Diabetes mellitus is a chronic metabolic condition and one of the most prevalent non-communicable diseases worldwide. Today, roughly one in ten adults lives with diabetes, and this share continues to rise. As prevalence increases, the disease is placing a growing strain not only on healthcare systems but also on national and global economies. A recent study provides a comprehensive assessment of these impacts by estimating the economic burden of diabetes across countries and over time, while also pointing to strategies that could reduce these costs.

The analysis, conducted by an international research team including economists from IIASA and the Vienna University of Economics and Business, examines the economic consequences of diabetes in 204 countries between 2020 and 2050. The findings highlight the enormous scale of the challenge. Excluding informal care provided by family members, the global economic cost of diabetes is estimated at around US$10 trillion, equivalent to approximately 0.2% of annual global GDP. When informal caregiving is included, however, total costs rise dramatically to as much as US$152 trillion, or 1.7% of global GDP, underlining the exceptional economic significance of diabetes as a chronic disease.

A major driver of this burden is the reliance on informal care. Family members often provide long-term support to people living with diabetes, frequently reducing their working hours or leaving the labour market altogether. These lost labour contributions generate substantial indirect economic costs. According to the study, informal caregiving accounts for between 85% and 90% of the total financial burden, largely because diabetes prevalence far exceeds mortality. While the disease is widespread, people tend to live with it for many years, requiring ongoing care and support.

Although diabetes is more common in lower-income countries, the highest absolute economic costs are borne by the world’s largest economies. The United States incurs the highest total costs, followed by China and India, reflecting their large populations and economic output. Relative measures, however, tell a more nuanced story. As a share of GDP, the burden is highest in the Czech Republic, at around 0.5%, followed by the United States and Germany at roughly 0.4%. On a per capita basis, the heaviest economic burdens are observed in Ireland, Monaco, and Bermuda.

The study also reveals stark differences between high- and low-income countries in how the burden is distributed. In high-income countries, direct treatment costs account for about 41% of the economic burden once caregiving is excluded, whereas in low-income countries, treatment costs make up only around 14%. This contrast reflects unequal access to adequate medical care and highlights how comprehensive treatment regimes for chronic diseases remain concentrated mainly in wealthier nations.

The authors further show that diabetes has amplified the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a significant risk factor for severe illness and death from COVID-19, diabetes significantly increased economic losses during the pandemic period, particularly in countries such as China, the United States, and Germany. Overall, the findings point to an urgent need for policy action. Promoting healthier lifestyles, improving early detection through widespread screening, and ensuring timely treatment are essential steps to reduce both the health and economic consequences of diabetes, especially in low-income countries where underdiagnosis remains a serious challenge.

More information: Simiao Chen et al, The global macroeconomic burden of diabetes mellitus, Nature Medicine. DOI: 10.1038/s41591-025-04027-5

Journal information: Nature Medicine Provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Research sheds light on financial influences within dual-income relationships

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The familiar phrase insists that money cannot buy happiness, yet it often plays a decisive role in the health of a romantic partnership. New research suggests that finances can quietly strengthen—or strain—relationships, particularly in households where both partners earn an income.

Led by University of Cincinnati doctoral researcher Sharmeen Merchant, the study examined how money functions psychologically within dual-income relationships, moving beyond simple salary figures to explore deeper attitudes and values. Recently published in the Journal of Business and Psychology, the research takes a close look at how partners’ perceptions of money influence one another’s sense of professional satisfaction.

The findings reveal a striking pattern. Men’s feelings of fulfilment at work are closely tied to how their partners think about money. When achievement-oriented views of money are shared within a relationship, men are more likely to evaluate their own career success positively. This effect, however, appears far weaker among women, whose work satisfaction was less dependent on their partners’ financial attitudes.

According to Merchant, the issue is not the size of a pay cheque but the meaning attached to it. She explains that money can represent achievement, status, or materialism, and those interpretations matter deeply within a partnership. When couples see money through a similar lens, it creates a shared framework that shapes how success and fulfilment are experienced.

That alignment appears especially important for husbands. When couples agree on what money symbolises, men tend to report greater satisfaction in their professional lives. When those beliefs clash, that sense of fulfilment often erodes, even if income levels remain unchanged.

The study was conducted in collaboration with several scholars, including Scott Dust, a professor at the Carl H. Lindner College of Business and Merchant’s academic adviser. Dust emphasised that the implications extend beyond career choice alone. While the nature of one’s job certainly affects workplace happiness, a partner’s values—and the role money plays within the relationship—can be just as influential.

In practical terms, the research highlights how deeply intertwined financial beliefs and emotional wellbeing can be in modern dual-income relationships. Success at work is not evaluated in isolation but filtered through the shared values and expectations partners bring to their financial lives together.

More information: Sharmeen Merchant et al, Gender Differences on Dual-Earners’ Money as Achievement Congruence and Needs-Supplies Fit, Journal of Business and Psychology. DOI: 10.1007/s10869-025-10094-9

Journal information: Journal of Business and Psychology Provided by University of Cincinnati

Climate-Smart Nutrition Doesn’t Have to Cost More

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Eating a healthy diet can reduce food costs and lower greenhouse gas emissions compared with what most people currently eat, according to a new global study examining the links between food prices, nutrition, and climate impact. The research shows that environmentally responsible eating does not necessarily require higher spending or specialised products, challenging a common assumption about sustainable diets.

The study was led by researchers at Tufts University’s Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy. They aimed to identify which locally available foods could meet basic nutritional requirements at the lowest possible cost and with the smallest climate footprint. These optimised diets were then compared with what people typically consume in different countries. The findings, recently published in Nature Food, suggest that every day, lower-cost food choices often align more closely with both health and climate goals than expected.

Using global dietary benchmarks known as Healthy Diet Basket targets—widely employed by United Nations agencies and national governments—the researchers modelled diets that satisfied nutritional needs while minimising either greenhouse gas emissions or monetary cost. They then contrasted these idealised diets with those based on the most commonly consumed foods. Across most food groups, less expensive items tended to generate fewer emissions, mainly because they require less energy, fertiliser, and land-use change during production.

The analysis drew on three primary sources of data for each food item: its price and availability in individual countries, its share of national food supplies, and its average greenhouse gas emissions. For each country, five dietary patterns were modelled, including the healthiest possible diet with the lowest emissions, the most nutritious diet at the lowest cost, and three diets reflecting typical consumption patterns.

In 2021, a healthy diet based on the most commonly eaten foods produced an average of 2.44 kilograms of CO₂-equivalent emissions per person per day and cost about $9.96 globally. By contrast, a diet designed specifically to minimise climate impact produced just 0.67 kilograms of emissions for $6.95. A diet focused solely on minimising cost, even less—$3.68 per day—while producing 1.65 kilograms of emissions. A blended approach, combining commonly eaten foods with lower-cost healthy alternatives, sat between these extremes, remaining significantly cheaper and less polluting than typical diets.

The researchers found that, in general, choosing cheaper options within each food group is an effective way to reduce dietary emissions. However, there are essential exceptions at the very lowest-cost and lowest-emission extremes. Among animal-source foods, milk is often the cheapest option and produces far fewer emissions than beef and other meats. Still, certain fish, such as sardines and mackerel, can offer even lower emissions at slightly higher cost. Among starchy staples, rice is frequently the least expensive option but has higher emissions than wheat or maize because methane is released from flooded rice paddies.

Overall, the study highlights a potential win–win for consumers and policymakers alike: healthier, more affordable, and more climate-friendly diets. While cutting emissions in other sectors often requires costly investments, everyday food choices can deliver environmental benefits simply by prioritising value for money—so long as key trade-offs are understood.

More information: Yan Bai et al, Environmental impacts and monetary costs of healthy diets worldwide, Nature Food. DOI: 10.1038/s43016-025-01270-4

Journal information: Nature Food Provided by Tufts University

Why taxing property during booms and subsidising it in slumps could protect housing markets

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Financial crises may be intensified by the way mortgage lending and housing taxes are currently structured, according to new academic research. The study suggests that existing systems can amplify economic downturns rather than soften them, particularly when falling house prices interact with strict credit conditions. The researchers argue that policymakers should reconsider how housing is taxed across the economic cycle, proposing higher taxes on housing purchases during periods of strong growth alongside temporary subsidies during recessions.

The research, published in a leading economics journal, warns that without carefully designed intervention, downturns can trigger a damaging feedback loop. As house prices fall, highly indebted households are often forced to sell their homes at depressed values. These so-called fire sales then push prices even lower, weakening household balance sheets and tightening borrowing conditions across the economy. This dynamic, the study argues, deepens recessions unnecessarily and spreads financial stress from borrowers to the broader economy.

At the heart of the analysis is the claim that today’s credit and tax arrangements leave the economy overly exposed to sudden shocks. When housing serves as collateral for borrowing, even modest price declines can sharply reduce access to credit. Families facing job losses or income reductions during a downturn are therefore hit twice: first by the shock itself, and then by collapsing house prices that restrict their ability to smooth consumption or refinance debt. The study finds that this vulnerability is not inevitable, but rather the result of policy choices that fail to respond adequately to different phases of the economic cycle.

The authors emphasise that the most effective interventions occur after a downturn has begun, rather than in attempts to curb borrowing in advance. By cushioning falls in house prices during recessions, governments can protect households at their most fragile moment. This protection, in turn, helps stabilise the broader economy by preventing sharp contractions in credit and spending. The research suggests that relatively modest, temporary housing subsidies introduced during downturns can have outsized benefits compared with more restrictive policies applied during boom periods.

To reach these conclusions, the study employed a quantitative economic model designed to replicate key features of real-world housing and credit markets. Thousands of simulated economies were generated in which house prices determined how much households could borrow. The researchers examined how taxing housing purchases during high-productivity periods and subsidising them during low-productivity periods affected prices, credit availability, and consumption. The model distinguished between two types of households — borrowers and savers — and tracked how each group responded to different policy regimes.

The results show that taxing housing in good times does little to restrain excessive borrowing. By contrast, subsidising housing investment during recessions raises house prices precisely when the financial system is most vulnerable. This support helps prevent forced sales and sharp price collapses, easing the collateral constraints that typically choke off credit access during downturns. Importantly, the study finds that both borrowers and savers benefit in the long run. More stable housing markets improve credit conditions, strengthen household balance sheets, and reduce the lasting economic damage caused by crises.

Overall, the research challenges the conventional emphasis on pre-emptive restrictions and instead argues for targeted, state-contingent intervention. By focusing on recovery rather than restraint, policymakers could protect living standards, limit financial instability, and reduce the depth and duration of future recessions.

More information: Matteo Iacoviello et al, Optimal credit market policy, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105223

Journal information: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control Provided by University of Surrey

Companies with Strong Sustainability Goals Benefit More from Open Auditing Practices

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Companies with strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) track records tend to perform better than their peers after being required to adopt stricter auditing standards, according to a new study from researchers at Nagoya University. The research is the first to directly examine the relationship between companies’ sustainability practices and the introduction of “key audit matters” (KAMs), a transparency measure designed to give investors clearer insight into corporate risks.

ESG refers to the environmental, social and governance criteria increasingly used to assess how responsibly companies operate. Strong ESG performance signals long-term commitment to sustainability, ethical oversight and stakeholder engagement, qualities that investors often associate with higher organisational quality. As global markets place growing emphasis on transparency and accountability, ESG performance has become an essential factor shaping how firms are evaluated.

In 2015, the International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board recommended that auditors disclose KAMs, defined as the most significant issues identified during an audit. The goal was to improve the usefulness of audit reports by helping investors better understand a firm’s financial and operational risks. In Japan, companies with high ESG scores generally paid higher audit and consulting fees after KAMs were introduced, reflecting more intensive scrutiny. However, these same firms also outperformed their peers in both accounting and market-based measures.

Co-author Hu Dan Semba, Associate Professor at Nagoya University’s Graduate School of Economics, emphasised that transparency alone does not create trust. Paying for more expensive audits does not automatically enhance credibility, he explained. Still, when firms have already demonstrated a genuine commitment to sustainability, transparent auditing strengthens that signal and is rewarded by the market.

Japan offered an obvious setting to study these dynamics. Publicly listed firms were allowed to voluntarily adopt KAM reporting in fiscal year 2019, one year before it became mandatory in 2020. This created what researchers describe as a natural experiment, enabling them to observe which firms chose early adoption, what it cost them and how they performed afterwards. The research team analysed data from 1,065 Japanese firms between 2009 and 2023.

Only twenty-four non-financial firms opted for early adoption, but those that did were significantly more likely to have strong ESG scores. According to the researchers, volunteering to disclose KAMs before it was required suggested confidence in the underlying corporate quality. These companies did incur higher audit and non-audit fees during the early phase, mainly due to more rigorous examinations and additional advisory work to address issues uncovered by auditors.

The study also points to cultural factors that may help explain this behaviour. Drawing on scholarship on Japanese business traditions, the authors suggest that voluntary transparency aligns with the concept of “sanpo-yoshi”, a principle developed by Omi merchants that stresses mutual benefit for sellers, buyers and society. Notably, firms that adopted KAMs early paid lower audit fees once disclosure became mandatory, suggesting that early transparency enabled them to identify and manage risks more efficiently.

From 2020 to 2023, companies with higher ESG scores showed stronger accounting performance and market returns following the implementation of mandatory KAM. While transparency appeared to improve overall firm performance, the effect was clearly more substantial for sustainability-focused firms. As KAM reporting becomes more widespread internationally, the findings suggest that companies with established ESG practices are best positioned to benefit from stricter transparency requirements. The results were published in the Managerial Auditing Journal.

More information: Maretno Agus Harjoto et al, Sustainability and financial disclosure: role of ESG in key audit matters adoption, Managerial Auditing Journal. DOI: 10.1108/MAJ-01-2025-4663

Journal information: Managerial Auditing Journal Provided by Nagoya University

Second-Hand Gift-Giving: More Than Convenience, a Deliberate Act

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A fair price, the excitement of discovering something rare or distinctive, and ethical and environmental considerations are key factors motivating consumers to buy second-hand gifts, according to new research from the University of Eastern Finland. Based on a survey of Tori.fi users, one of Finland’s most popular consumer-to-consumer online marketplaces, the study shows that intentions to purchase second-hand gifts often translate into actual purchases. Rather than remaining a tentative idea, the intention to give a pre-owned gift often leads directly to action.

The findings challenge the perception that second-hand gift-giving is driven by impulse or convenience. Instead, the research suggests that such purchases are typically well considered. Assistant Professor Heli Hallikainen of the University of Eastern Finland explains that consumers follow a familiar intention–behaviour pathway when buying second-hand gifts, similar to the process involved in purchasing new products. This indicates that giving a used item is not a lesser or rushed alternative, but a deliberate choice shaped by clear motivations and planning.

The study also highlights differences between product categories. Purchase intentions were most likely to become actual purchases for items that require little inspection, such as books. These products carry lower perceived risk, making consumers more comfortable completing the purchase quickly. In contrast, second-hand furniture and clothing prompted more careful deliberation. Concerns around condition, suitability or fit meant that even motivated buyers tended to spend more time evaluating these options before committing.

According to Maria Ovaska, MSc, a co-author of the study, the growing popularity of consumer-to-consumer marketplaces has transformed second-hand shopping. Digital platforms now offer a broad and diverse selection of products, while improved search functions and smoother buying processes make it easier for consumers to find what they want. Practical obstacles that once limited second-hand purchases have vastly diminished. As these platforms continue to develop, Ovaska believes that purchase intention will become an even stronger predictor of actual buying behaviour.

The researchers also point to a broader shift in social attitudes. Buying second-hand goods, including gifts, is increasingly common and socially accepted. As consumer values evolve and services improve, second-hand products are becoming more firmly embedded in mainstream gift markets. This trend is likely to continue, particularly as sustainability concerns gain prominence and consumers become more confident that second-hand gifts can be both meaningful and appropriate.

Published in the European Journal of Marketing, the study examined what motivates consumers to buy second-hand gifts and how intentions turn into purchase decisions. It also explored the role of environmental values, drawing on two surveys conducted before and after Christmas. The findings suggest that green values not only strengthen consumers’ willingness to buy second-hand gifts but also speed up decision-making. The authors argue that both consumers and retailers have a role to play in expanding this market, encouraging more sustainable gift-giving practices during peak shopping seasons.

More information: Heli Hallikainen et al, What motivates second-hand gift-giving? European Journal of Marketing. DOI: 10.1108/EJM-06-2024-0481

Journal information: European Journal of Marketing Provided by University of Eastern Finland

Hospitality Industry Moves Closer to Fulfilling Its Diversity Commitments

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Despite broad acceptance of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) principles across the hospitality and tourism sector, new research suggests that job applicants may still face barriers when seeking employment, particularly through automated recruitment systems used by online job platforms. While many organisations publicly promote inclusive values, these commitments do not always translate into fair or transparent hiring practices, raising concerns about the gap between intention and implementation.

The study, which focused on recruitment sites in the United States, was led by Flinders University researcher Associate Professor Ashokkumar Manoharan in collaboration with international colleagues. The findings serve as a timely reminder that some employers may make surface-level commitments to diversity, paying lip service to inclusiveness while failing to embed it meaningfully into recruitment processes. Automated screening tools, in particular, can unintentionally reinforce bias rather than remove it.

Published in the International Journal of Hospitality Management, the research reinforces existing evidence that a genuinely diverse workforce delivers stronger organisational performance. Diversity among employees has been shown to improve service quality, enhance guest satisfaction, and contribute to better overall business outcomes. However, the authors caution that these benefits can only be realised when inclusive principles are consistently applied, from recruitment through to day-to-day workplace practices.

“While many organisations openly communicate their willingness to embrace diversity, equity and inclusiveness in recruiting a diverse workforce, not all organisations practise what they preach,” says Associate Professor Manoharan. He points to the prevalence of “social washing” in the hospitality industry, where corporate statements and policies create an impression of social responsibility that is not always supported by real action or employee experience.

The research analysed data from more than 100 hospitality companies that advertised roles on the employment website Glassdoor. The analysis revealed frequent inconsistencies between the inclusive language used in job advertisements and employee ratings on fairness, diversity, and workplace culture. In many cases, organisations that strongly promoted inclusivity scored poorly in employee feedback, suggesting a disconnect between stated values and lived reality.

According to the researchers, broader political and regulatory environments also shape how organisations respond to DEI expectations, influencing whether they over-deliver or under-deliver on their commitments. Although the data was collected in the United States, the implications extend globally and across industries. With increasing resistance to DEI in some contexts, the authors argue that responsibility for promoting inclusive recruitment must not rest solely with a small number of committed organisations, particularly as automated hiring systems become more widespread.

More information: Yunxuan Carrie Zhang et al, Woke washing won’t work: The effects of inclusive cues on online employee review sites on job seekers’ application intentions, International Journal of Hospitality Management. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhm.2025.104414

Journal information: International Journal of Hospitality Management Provided by Flinders University

A Researcher’s Years-Long Journey Culminates in a Smart Composite Breakthrough

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Since his postdoctoral work at MIT, Hang Yu, now an associate professor of materials science and engineering, has been grappling with a stubborn materials problem: how to create a shape-memory ceramic that is not only functional, but also durable and scalable. Ceramics that can change their internal structure under stress and then recover their shape have long promised revolutionary applications. Yet, their inherent brittleness has repeatedly caused them to fracture when produced in bulk. What worked at microscopic scales fell apart when scaled up, limiting these materials to laboratory curiosities rather than real-world solutions.

That barrier has now been overcome. Working with PhD student Donnie Erb and postdoctoral researcher Nikhil Gotawala, Yu has developed a new composite material that embeds tiny shape-memory ceramic particles within a metal matrix. The team achieved this using additive friction stir deposition, an advanced manufacturing process that forges materials together in a solid state rather than melting them. By spinning and compressing the feedstock at high speeds, the technique produces a dense, defect-free structure while preserving the unique properties of each component.

The resulting material combines the strength and toughness of metal with the functional behaviour of ceramics. Under mechanical stress, the embedded ceramic particles undergo a phase transformation that absorbs and dissipates energy, allowing the composite to withstand tension, bending, and compression. Crucially, this happens without cracking, a feat that has eluded researchers for decades. Unlike conventional ceramics, the composite can also be 3D-printed in bulk with full density in its as-printed state, making large-scale manufacturing feasible for the first time.

The team’s findings, published in Materials Science and Engineering R: Reports, mark the first demonstration of stress-induced phase transformation in a bulk ceramic–metal composite produced through a scalable, solid-state printing process. For Yu, the breakthrough represents the convergence of two long-standing research interests: shape-memory ceramics and advanced additive manufacturing. By marrying the two, his group has unlocked a pathway from fundamental science to practical engineering.

The implications extend far beyond the laboratory. Materials that can absorb vibration or impact energy without added mechanical complexity are highly attractive for defence, aerospace, and infrastructure applications. Sporting equipment could also benefit, such as golf club shafts designed to dampen vibration while remaining lightweight and strong. Rather than replacing existing metals, the new composite enhances the functionality of materials that already perform well in demanding environments.

More broadly, the work underscores the growing importance of advanced manufacturing techniques in materials science. Additive friction stir deposition, previously explored by Yu with support from federal research agencies, has proven to be a powerful tool for creating novel material systems that were previously impractical or impossible to produce. By enabling bulk production of shape-memory ceramic composites, the research bridges a long-standing gap between academic discovery and industrial application, opening the door to more innovative, tougher materials at meaningful scales.

More information: Donnie Erb et al, Solid-state additive manufacturing of shape-memory ceramic reinforced composites, Materials Science and Engineering R Reports. DOI: 10.1016/j.mser.2025.101152

Journal information: Materials Science and Engineering R Reports Provided by Virginia Tech

Uneven SDG Progress: Low-Baseline Goals Move Forward as High-Baseline Ones Stall

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With only five years left before the 2030 deadline for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a new international study reveals a sharply uneven pattern of progress since the goals were adopted in 2015. While some areas continue to advance, others that initially appeared well-positioned are now stagnating or moving backwards, raising concerns about the feasibility of meeting global targets within the remaining timeframe.

Published recently in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the study shows that SDGs with high initial benchmark scores have, in many cases, stalled or deteriorated. In contrast, indicators that began from lower baseline levels have continued to register steady gains. Based on current trajectories, the authors caution that most countries are unlikely to meet their 2030 SDG commitments without substantial changes in policy, investment, and international cooperation.

The analysis highlights stark contrasts across goal areas. Indicators related to Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure (SDG 9) rank highest globally, reflecting sustained investment in industrial modernisation and scientific capacity. By contrast, Good Health and Well-being (SDG 3) has experienced the most significant setbacks, despite relatively strong starting conditions. Declines in vaccine coverage and slowed or reversed progress in controlling infectious diseases have been observed not only in low-income regions but also across developed economies.

According to the study’s authors, this divergence points to a more profound structural imbalance in global development. Technological and industrial advances have driven progress in some domains, yet long-standing weaknesses in public health systems and preventive care have been exposed and exacerbated by recent shocks. The findings suggest that technological progress alone cannot compensate for underinvestment in core social infrastructure, particularly as countries confront overlapping pressures from pandemics, conflict, and economic uncertainty.

At the same time, the study finds encouraging evidence that low-baseline indicators can improve rapidly under the right conditions. Several countries with modest starting points in 2015 have made substantial gains in areas such as education, safety, and social inclusion, demonstrating that meaningful transformation is possible even in resource-constrained settings. Conversely, indicators with high initial scores—typically between 70 and 90 per cent—are now more likely to stagnate or regress, reflecting weaker follow-through, complacency, and vulnerability to external shocks.

Looking ahead, the authors project that the global SDG score will reach only around 63 per cent by 2030, with several fragile and conflict-affected countries remaining well below the halfway mark. While a small number of countries continue to set international benchmarks in areas such as gender equality and global partnerships, the overall picture points to widening gaps and mounting implementation challenges. Although fully achieving all SDGs within the remaining five years will be difficult, the researchers emphasise that incremental progress remains vital and that the SDGs continue to serve as the central global framework for advancing a more sustainable and equitable future.

More information: Qiang Xing et al, Country-specific progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals: Past, present, and prospects, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2524299122

Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Provided by Chinese Academy of Sciences Headquarters

How climate change is transforming business and finance: emerging risks, investment strategies, and digital markets

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Climate change has moved beyond the realm of environmental policy to become a central force shaping global business strategy, financial decision-making, and economic governance. Firms and financial institutions now operate in an environment characterised by intensifying physical risks, such as extreme weather events, alongside expanding regulatory and transition pressures linked to decarbonisation and sustainability goals. As these risks and opportunities become more pronounced, understanding their influence on corporate behaviour, capital allocation, and market stability has become increasingly important. This collection of eight studies, published in China Finance Review International, responds to this challenge by examining how climate-related factors are reshaping firm-level strategies, investment dynamics, and financial markets across diverse institutional and geographic contexts.

Rather than presenting a single empirical investigation, the editorial draws together insights from a diverse body of research using a wide range of methodological approaches. These include quantitative analysis of firm-level financial and environmental data, textual and sentiment analysis of corporate disclosures, modelling of policy uncertainty, and evaluation of macroeconomic and regulatory frameworks. The studies span multiple settings, including China, emerging Asian economies, and global markets, enabling comparisons across different regulatory regimes and stages of economic development. Thematically, the research addresses the role of state capital and regulation in driving environmental investment, the financial implications of climate-related opportunities, the impact of climate sentiment and policy uncertainty on firm value and behaviour, and the growing intersection between climate risk and digital asset markets, particularly cryptocurrencies.

Several significant findings emerge from this body of work. State ownership plays a significant role in promoting environmental investment and improving ESG performance in China, suggesting that public capital can act as a catalyst for corporate sustainability. While environmental regulations may initially constrain corporate investment, firms with strong green innovation capabilities and sufficient cash reserves are better positioned to adapt over time. Exposure to climate-related opportunities is associated with a lower cost of capital, especially in countries that are more vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the financial benefits of aligning business models with the low-carbon transition. At the same time, transparent and credible climate disclosure enhances corporate reputation and attracts environmentally conscious investors. The research also demonstrates that heightened climate policy uncertainty encourages firms, particularly private and pollution-intensive ones, to strengthen ESG performance as a form of risk management. Although negative climate sentiment can depress firm value, robust ESG practices can provide some resilience. Beyond traditional finance, the studies show that both physical climate events and transition risks significantly increase volatility in cryptocurrency markets, indicating that digital assets are not insulated from climate-related disruptions.

Collectively, these findings underscore that climate change is now deeply embedded in financial valuation, risk pricing, and strategic decision-making. Climate considerations increasingly shape how capital is allocated, how investors assess firms, and how markets respond to uncertainty. This has important implications as jurisdictions move towards more standardised climate disclosure regimes, such as IFRS S2, and as policymakers seek to align financial systems with climate objectives. The research highlights the need for firms to proactively identify climate-related opportunities, strengthen ESG disclosure, and maintain strategic liquidity to withstand regulatory and physical shocks. Investors can draw on climate opportunity indicators and sentiment analysis to inform portfolio allocation, favouring firms that demonstrate credible sustainability practices. For policymakers and regulators, the findings underscore the importance of coordinated monetary, fiscal, and environmental policies, as well as the need to incorporate climate risk into oversight of both traditional financial markets and emerging digital asset classes.

More information: Badar Nadeem Ashraf et al, Guest editorial: Climate change and business: challenges and innovations, China Finance Review International. DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-09-2025-771

Journal information: China Finance Review International Provided by Shanghai Jiao Tong University Journal Center

Tracking Unemployment Trends with Social Media Data

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Recent research suggests that social media discussions about job loss can anticipate official unemployment figures by up to two weeks. Losing a job is often a stressful and personal experience, and many people express their situation online. By analysing these public disclosures, researchers have shown that digital conversations can provide early signals of labour market changes, often emerging well before they appear in government statistics. This work highlights the growing potential of online data to complement traditional economic measurement.

The study, led by Sam Fraiberger and colleagues, introduces an artificial intelligence model designed to detect self-disclosures of unemployment on social media. The model, known as JoblessBERT, is based on a transformer architecture and was trained on posts from 31.5 million Twitter users between 2020 and 2022. Crucially, it recognised informal language, slang, and misspellings common in everyday online communication. Expressions such as “I needa job!” and similar non-standard phrasing, which often evade simpler keyword-based systems, were successfully identified, enabling a much broader capture of unemployment-related content.

Because social media users are not fully representative of the general population, the researchers applied demographic adjustments to correct for known biases. By inferring user characteristics and using post-stratification techniques, they accounted for differences in age, location, and other factors that can distort online data. After making these corrections, the team used the detected unemployment disclosures to forecast US unemployment insurance claims at national, state, and city levels. This approach offered not only faster insights but also finer geographic detail than is typically available through conventional labour market data.

The results showed a clear improvement over existing methods. JoblessBERT captured nearly three times as many genuine unemployment disclosures as previous rule-based approaches while maintaining high precision. When used for forecasting, the model reduced prediction errors by more than 50 per cent compared with industry consensus forecasts. These gains were observed both during relatively stable economic periods and during times of significant disruption, suggesting that the method is robust across different financial conditions.

The advantages of this approach were particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. In March 2020, as lockdowns led to a sudden and dramatic rise in job losses, official statistics lagged behind events on the ground. The AI-based system detected the surge in unemployment-related posts days before government data were released, demonstrating its potential as an early warning tool. In fast-moving crises, such time savings can be critical for policymakers seeking to respond quickly.

More broadly, the study addresses long-standing concerns about the reliability of digital trace data. By focusing on individual self-disclosures and combining machine learning with established statistical adjustments, the methodology shows how social media data can be used responsibly and effectively. Rather than replacing traditional surveys and administrative records, this approach complements them, offering more timely and geographically detailed insights. The findings underline how integrating AI with statistical modelling can strengthen economic monitoring and support better-informed policymaking, especially during periods of financial turbulence.

More information: Do Lee et al, Can social media reliably estimate unemployment?, PNAS Nexus. DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf309