Author Archives: support

Managing the Unknown and Guiding the Nation: An Interpretation of Professor Lim Siong Guan’s Ideas

As global uncertainty intensifies, governments are under growing pressure to make decisions that preserve long-term stability while remaining responsive to rapid, unforeseen change. In a recent interview published in the journal Risk Sciences, Lim Siong Guan, one of Singapore’s most experienced public-sector leaders, provides a rare insider’s perspective on how uncertainty can be addressed through governance, leadership, and organisational culture.

Lim challenges conventional notions of risk management in government, arguing that the real task is not to eliminate risk but to prepare for an uncertain future. “In government, we rarely use the word risk,” he explains. “A more accurate description is managing uncertainty with a future orientation.” Rather than responding only when crises arise, he stresses the importance of continual preparation for a range of possible futures.

A central pillar of this approach is Singapore’s long-standing practice of scenario planning. This structured method explores alternative future pathways without assigning probabilities, allowing policymakers to test whether strategies remain effective under different conditions. According to Lim, scenario planning strengthens institutional resilience by ensuring that decisions are robust even when circumstances shift. Complementing this is horizon scanning, which focuses on detecting early signals of emerging risks or opportunities so that governments can respond before challenges fully materialise.

However, Lim is clear that formal planning tools have limits, particularly when dealing with what he calls the “unknown unknowns” — events that cannot be anticipated in advance. In such situations, organisational culture becomes critical. He argues that shared values, adaptability, and a willingness to learn from mistakes enable institutions to cope when established plans fall short. For Lim, culture provides the flexibility and judgment needed when uncertainty exceeds the bounds of analytical models.

Leadership, he suggests, must also adapt to increasingly complex and unpredictable environments. Using metaphors such as the dragon boat race, the symphony orchestra, and the football match, Lim illustrates how leadership styles must evolve. In today’s world, leaders can no longer control every decision from the top. Instead, they must build capable teams, empower individuals at different levels, and trust them to make sound decisions in real time.

Trust itself is a recurring theme in Lim’s reflections on governance. Drawing on experiences during crises such as COVID-19, he notes that public trust allows governments to adjust policies as new information emerges. When citizens perceive their leaders as caring, competent, and credible, they are more likely to accept policy changes in uncertain circumstances.

Overall, Lim Siong Guan’s insights highlight how long-term strategic thinking, adaptive leadership, and a resilient institutional culture can help governments navigate uncertainty. In a rapidly changing world, these elements together form the foundation for effective and responsive governance.

More information: Yexin Chen et al, From managing uncertainty to national strategy: An interview with Lim Siong Guan, Risk Sciences. DOI: 10.1016/j.risk.2025.100047

Journal information: Risk Sciences Provided by KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.

Why Do Emissions Trading System (ETS) Deliver Divergent Innovation Outcomes? Insights from Price Stabilization Mechanisms (PSM)

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Key aspects of policy design are crucial to determining whether an emissions trading system can effectively stimulate green innovation. A recent study by researchers from the School of Economics at Huazhong University of Science and Technology and the Business School at Zhengzhou University shows that price stabilisation mechanisms are central to this process. These mechanisms, which are intended to support rising carbon prices while limiting excessive volatility, significantly influence whether emissions trading systems succeed in encouraging innovation among regulated firms. The findings suggest that carbon markets do not automatically generate innovation; rather, their effectiveness depends heavily on how they are institutionally designed.

The study finds that only emissions trading systems that combine both price-based and quantity-based price stabilisation mechanisms have a statistically significant effect on firms’ green innovation. Price-based tools, such as price floors or ceilings, work together with quantity-based measures, such as adjustments to the emissions cap, to form a more complete and credible policy framework. Systems that rely on a single stabilisation mechanism tend to be less effective, suggesting that partial designs fail to provide sufficiently strong or reliable incentives for innovation. In contrast, a comprehensive combination of mechanisms creates clearer signals and a more predictable environment for long-term investment in green technologies.

According to the authors, price stabilisation mechanisms promote innovation through two main channels. First, they help sustain carbon prices at levels high enough to make investing in low-carbon technologies economically attractive. Second, they reduce uncertainty about future carbon prices, which firms often view as a significant risk when making costly, potentially irreversible innovation decisions. By limiting price volatility and improving policy predictability, these mechanisms increase firms’ confidence that investments in green innovation will generate returns over time.

The effects of price stabilisation mechanisms are not uniform across firms, however. The study identifies significant heterogeneity linked to firm-level characteristics. Firms with a lower ability to pass compliance costs on to consumers respond more strongly, as they face greater incentives to reduce emissions through innovation rather than pricing strategies. Similarly, firms with less reversible assets show stronger responses, since stable carbon pricing reduces the risks associated with long-term capital commitments. The innovation effects are also more pronounced among firms with stronger existing innovation capabilities and among state-owned enterprises, which may be better aligned with long-term policy objectives or have greater access to resources.

The research, published in Energy and Climate Management on 30 October 2025, uses data on listed firms in sectors covered by China’s carbon market pilots between 2010 and 2019. By comparing firms in pilot and non-pilot regions before and after the schemes were introduced, and applying a staggered difference-in-differences approach, the authors identify the causal impact of different stabilisation designs on green patent applications. Overall, the findings underline the importance of embedding well-designed price stabilisation mechanisms within emissions trading systems, primarily when policymakers aim not only to reduce emissions but also to foster sustained green innovation.

More information: Banban Wang et al, Why the effectiveness of ETSs on green innovation differs? The perspective from price stabilization mechanisms, Energy and Climate Management. DOI: 10.26599/ECM.2025.9400020

Journal information: Energy and Climate Management Provided by Tsinghua University Press

Evidence reveals informed traders consistently monetise climate-related instability

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Efforts to address climate change are among the most serious collective challenges facing the world, with governments seeking to establish frameworks to limit its long-term impacts. Alongside this public mission, however, climate negotiations also generate significant financial consequences. For some investors, market movements surrounding the annual United Nations Conference of the Parties (COP) climate talks represent an opportunity to profit from anticipated policy outcomes rather than a moment of environmental reckoning.

This dynamic is examined in a recent study published in Energy Economics by an Australian research team, which analysed trading activity linked to COP meetings. The researchers focused on so-called “informed traders, defined as investors who act on non-public information that allows them to trade ahead of broader market responses. Rather than reacting to policy announcements once they are public, these traders appear to position themselves in advance, based on early signals about how negotiations are likely to unfold.

The study finds that fossil fuel companies experience notable spikes in informed trading during COP meetings. Across the firms and conferences analysed, the researchers estimate that such trading could yield gains of up to US$25 billion. Professor Martina Linnenluecke, co-lead author of the paper and Director of the Centre for Climate Risk and Resilience at the UTS Business School, notes that COP negotiations are major global events with the potential to affect the valuation of fossil fuel firms materially. As a result, even subtle indications about the direction of talks can have significant market implications.

COP meetings involve thousands of delegates, industry representatives, and observers, creating complex information environments well before official outcomes are announced. The research team sought to determine whether individuals with early insights into the likely direction of negotiations were trading on that knowledge. To do so, they developed a new methodology to estimate the probability of informed trading, using data from 87 US-listed fossil fuel firms over the period from 2006 to 2023.

Their analysis shows that the strongest signals of informed trading tend to appear just before meetings formally begin, particularly on the days when delegates are arriving, and preliminary events are taking place. During these periods, fossil fuel stocks behave as though some market participants have advanced insight into climate policy outcomes. When negotiations are likely to lead to more substantial climate commitments, fossil fuel stocks fall, making early selling potentially profitable. When talks appear weaker, early buying can deliver gains.

The researchers estimate that informed traders could have earned up to US$25 billion across the meetings studied, with the most significant single estimated profit, more than US$12 billion, occurring around COP20. While such activity is not illegal and is not currently subject to specific regulation, the findings raise broader concerns. COP decisions shape the pace and direction of the global energy transition, and information imbalances during these negotiations risk undermining market fairness, investor protection, and the credibility of climate policy.

The authors argue that these results point to the need for stronger disclosure rules, clearer communication protocols, and safeguards to prevent privileged access to negotiation information from becoming a source of private gain. In negotiations designed to serve the global public interest, transparency may be as important as the policies themselves.

More information: Xiaoyan Chen et al, Informed trading and the fossil fuel industry’s influence over UN climate meetings, Energy Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109065

Journal information: Energy Economics Provided by University of Technology Sydney

Paying for a warming world: climate change and lost income

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For many years, economists have mainly treated climate change as a future problem, focusing on how it might affect incomes and growth decades from now. New research by economist Derek Lemoine challenges that assumption by showing that the economic damage is already happening. His study finds that climate change has reduced average income in the United States by around 12 per cent. In other words, the country is already paying a significant economic price for a warmer climate, not at some distant point in the future, but right now.

Lemoine argues that understanding today’s costs is crucial for both policymakers and businesses. If researchers struggle to measure what climate change is already costing the economy using existing data, then forecasts about future impacts become highly uncertain. His findings suggest that the economic consequences of climate change are comparable in size to those caused by major national policy changes. While the precise figure is open to debate, he stresses that the actual impact is clearly far greater than earlier estimates suggested.

Previous studies tended to look only at short-term, local weather changes, such as a hotter summer or a colder winter in a specific place. Using this approach, climate change appeared to reduce income by less than 1%. Lemoine’s work takes a broader view. By accounting for the fact that climate change persists year after year, affects the entire country at once, and links regions through trade and prices, the estimated income loss rises sharply. When many areas experience temperature changes simultaneously, the economic effects spread through supply chains and markets, adding up far more quickly than local studies capture.

To measure this nationwide impact, Lemoine used climate models that compare the real world with a hypothetical world without human-caused emissions. This allowed him to estimate how the weather in each county would have differed in the absence of climate change. He then combined this information with decades of county-level data on daily temperatures and personal income, spanning 1969 to 2019. This approach enabled tracking how income responded not only to local temperature changes but also to temperature shifts elsewhere in the country.

Importantly, the study does not focus on dramatic events such as hurricanes, floods, or wildfires. Instead, it looks at routine changes, such as having more hot days and fewer cold days. These everyday shifts matter because they influence productivity, energy use, prices, and trade patterns across regions. A hotter climate in one state can affect incomes in another through higher costs or disrupted supply chains, showing how closely connected the national economy really is.

Seeing climate change as an ongoing economic force rather than a distant threat has practical consequences. For businesses, it highlights the need for resilience planning, from where to locate operations to how to manage insurance and energy costs. For governments, regularly tracking the economic cost of climate change, much as they do employment or inflation, could lead to better-targeted policies. By understanding where losses are already occurring, decision-makers can respond more effectively to the risks that climate change is creating today, not just those expected in the future.

More information: Derek Lemoine, Climate change has already made the United States poorer, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2504376122

Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Provided by University of Arizona

Higher-Order Network Analysis Reveals Collective Risk Resonance Across Chinese Stock Sectors

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Systemic financial risk continues to pose a serious challenge for modern economies, as shown by repeated crises such as the global financial collapse of 2008, the Chinese stock market turmoil of 2015, and the economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Much existing research has tended to analyse financial sectors separately or to focus on simple pairwise spillovers between them. While useful, these approaches often miss the broader picture of how risks can simultaneously spread across industries, reinforcing one another and escalating into systemic threats. This study responds to that limitation by examining how collective risk emerges through multi-sector interactions in China’s stock market.

Rather than relying on conventional two-sector models, the research focuses on higher-order interactions in which risk is shared across groups of sectors simultaneously. This perspective recognises that financial instability is rarely transmitted in a linear or isolated way. Instead, shocks often propagate through tightly connected clusters of sectors whose risks move together. By capturing these group-level dynamics, the study offers a richer and more realistic account of how systemic risk develops and evolves, particularly during periods of market stress.

To achieve this, the authors analyse data from 24 Chinese stock market sectors covering the period from 2007 to 2024. Sectoral risk is measured using volatility estimates derived from established econometric models. In contrast, a higher-order network framework is used to track how risk co-movement forms and dissolves over time. In this network, links are not limited to pairs of sectors but can connect several sectors simultaneously, allowing the identification of synchronised risk “resonance” across the market. Network indicators are then used to assess both the importance of individual industries and the overall system structure.

The results show that the most common form of risk interaction involves four sectors moving together, indicating that traditional pairwise analyses significantly underestimate the complexity of risk transmission. The findings also reveal significant differences between industries. Insurance consistently plays a central role in the risk network, while energy becomes especially influential during periods of geopolitical tension. Significantly, the composition of high-risk clusters changes from one crisis to another, demonstrating that systemic vulnerability is not fixed but shaped by the nature of external shocks.

At the system level, the market’s ability to absorb shocks improves gradually over the long term, suggesting some strengthening of financial resilience. However, this resilience fluctuates sharply during crises, when network structures reorganise, and risk becomes more concentrated. Financial sectors tend to cope better with shocks, whereas industries such as retail and capital goods remain relatively fragile. Major events are shown to reshape network density and connectivity, confirming that crises fundamentally alter how risk spreads across the market.

Overall, the study highlights the importance of moving beyond traditional risk models to understand modern financial systems. By revealing how collective, multi-sector risk can build up and propagate, it offers valuable insights for regulators, investors, and risk managers. The approach provides a clearer basis for monitoring systemic threats, designing more effective safeguards, and anticipating hidden vulnerabilities in increasingly interconnected financial markets.

More information: Zisheng Ouyang et al, Collective risk resonance behavior and network resilience in Chinese stock sectors: evidence from higher-order financial network, China Finance Review International. DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-06-2025-0394

Journal information: China Finance Review International Provided by Shanghai Jiao Tong University Journal Center

Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) Induced Systemic Risk Transmission across Chinese Sectors: Insights from Mixed-Frequency Tail-Based Modelling

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As climate change accelerates worldwide, government responses aimed at reducing emissions and adapting to environmental risks are increasingly shaping economic expectations and financial market behaviour. In China, this influence is powerful. As the world’s second-largest economy and a central player in global climate governance, China’s transition towards carbon neutrality requires frequent policy adjustments and regulatory experimentation. These evolving signals generate Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU), a growing source of financial risk. While CPU has attracted increasing attention, its effects on how different Chinese economic sectors contribute to systemic financial risk have not been fully explored, despite the potential consequences for market stability.

This gap matters because heightened uncertainty can delay investment, intensify investor anxiety, and disrupt the efficient allocation of capital. In sectors closely tied to emissions, regulation, or infrastructure, unclear policy direction may slow restructuring and amplify financial stress. At the same time, uncertainty can spill over into the broader financial system, increasing the likelihood that shocks in one sector trigger wider instability. Against this background, the study examines how the CPU influences the systemic risk profiles of 11 major Chinese sectors, providing insights directly relevant to policymakers, investors, and regulators managing the risks of a low-carbon transition.

To capture these complex dynamics, the research applies an advanced mixed-frequency modelling framework that links low-frequency policy uncertainty with high-frequency financial data. The core approach allows the relationship between sectors and the overall market to change over time and to behave differently during market booms and crashes. Crucially, the model also accounts for extended memory, meaning that past periods of stress continue to influence current risk conditions. Systemic risk is measured using a forward-looking indicator that shows how much each sector is expected to contribute to overall market losses when conditions deteriorate.

The analysis covers eleven key sectors, including Energy, Materials, Industrials, Real Estate, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and Finance, over the period from 2008 to 2023. Climate policy uncertainty is measured using a text-based index derived from major Chinese newspapers that captures shifts in policy-related discussion around China’s carbon goals. This approach allows the study to reflect not only formal policy changes but also evolving expectations and debates, which often matter just as much for financial markets as concrete regulations.

The findings show that sectors tend to move much more closely together during market downturns than during upswings, highlighting the importance of focusing on downside risk. Real estate stands out as particularly persistent in its links to overall market stress, while materials show a long-lasting positive dependence during favourable periods. Sectoral contributions to systemic risk also change across crises. Energy and finance were key risk drivers during the global financial crisis. In contrast, industrial firms played a larger role during the 2015–2016 Chinese market crash, reflecting different sources of vulnerability over time.

Most importantly, the effects of CPU vary across sectors and market conditions. During moderate downturns, policy uncertainty increases risk volatility in carbon-intensive and regulation-sensitive sectors, while more defensive sectors appear relatively stable. However, during severe market crashes, CPU amplifies risk across almost all sectors, weakening the protective role of traditional safe havens. These results underline that climate policy uncertainty is a meaningful financial risk factor. Understanding how it affects different sectors is essential for maintaining financial stability as China advances its low-carbon transformation.

More information: Kun-Liang Jiang et al, Does CPU impact systemic risk contributions of Chinese sectors? Evidence from mixed frequency methods with asymmetric tail long memory, China Finance Review International. DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-05-2025-0281

Journal information: China Finance Review International Provided by Shanghai Jiao Tong University Journal Center

How algorithmic control shapes gig workers’ turnover intention in China: Evidence from relative deprivation theory

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A recent study published in the Journal of Management Science and Engineering offers a fresh perspective on algorithmic control, challenging the prevailing assumption that it functions solely as a negative managerial instrument. Rather than operating as a monolithic form of control, the study demonstrates that algorithmic control is multidimensional. Its three core functions—behavioural constraints, tracking and evaluation, and standardised guidance—produce markedly different effects on gig workers’ turnover intention, thereby overturning the dominant one-dimensional understanding of algorithmic management.

In essence, the findings reveal a clear divergence in outcomes across these functions. Behavioural constraints and tracking evaluation significantly increase gig workers’ turnover intention by intensifying feelings of relative deprivation. In contrast, standardised guidance not only weakens this negative pathway but also directly suppresses turnover intention. This dual role highlights the capacity of certain algorithmic functions to mitigate, rather than amplify, worker dissatisfaction.

As corresponding author Wei Cai explains, previous research has primarily examined the aggregate effects of algorithmic control while overlooking its functional heterogeneity. By introducing relative deprivation as a mediating mechanism within the Job Demands–Resources (JD-R) model, the study provides new theoretical insights. Most notably, it is among the first to empirically demonstrate that the standardised guidance embedded in algorithmic systems can act as a “buffering resource,” offering platforms a novel pathway for optimising digital management practices.

The empirical evidence is drawn from a two-wave questionnaire survey of 242 food delivery riders, with the surveys administered one month apart. This research design was intentionally adopted to reduce common method bias and to strengthen the credibility and robustness of the findings.

Crucially, the study underscores that algorithmic control does not inevitably generate adverse outcomes for gig workers. As Cai notes, algorithmic management can also produce beneficial effects when its design prioritises supportive functions. Rather than abandoning algorithmic systems altogether, platforms are encouraged to strike a balance between operational efficiency and human-centred management. By enhancing elements of standardised guidance—such as improving task allocation mechanisms and providing timely, transparent feedback—platforms may alleviate the persistent problem of high turnover rates that continues to challenge the gig economy.

More information: Shengxian Yu et al, Online platform algorithmic control and gig workers’ turnover intention in China: The mediating role of relative deprivation, Journal of Management Science and Engineering. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmse.2024.08.004

Journal information: Journal of Management Science and Engineering Provided by KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.

Oxford-led analysis finds heat and cold place a 3% burden on NHS primary and secondary care costs

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A new University of Oxford–led study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, provides the first comprehensive evidence linking daily temperature variation to health-care use and costs across both primary and secondary care in England. By combining detailed weather data with large-scale patient records, the research offers a system-wide picture of how everyday exposure to heat and cold translates into demand for NHS services, moving beyond earlier studies that focused on specific conditions or parts of the health system.

The analysis draws on linked records from 4,366,981 people registered at 244 GP practices between April 2007 and June 2019. Using these data, the researchers examined how health-care use changed when average daily temperatures fell outside a mild reference range of 18°C to 21°C. They estimate that exposure to temperatures outside this range accounts for about 3.0% of the recorded health-care costs in their dataset. This figure reflects the cumulative effect of many small increases in service use on non-optimal temperature days, rather than the impact of rare extreme events alone.

To illustrate the possible scale of these findings, the study presents an indicative translation into national spending terms. If a similar proportion applied to NHS England’s planned 2023/24 spending on acute services, specialised services and primary medical care — a combined £101.4 billion — temperature-related health-care use would correspond to costs on the order of £3 billion per year across those categories. While this is not a formal national budget estimate, it provides context, placing temperature-related costs in the same broad range as established areas of NHS expenditure, such as dentistry.

The results are particularly relevant as NHS leaders plan for winter pressures and wider service resilience. Cold weather remains a dominant feature of the UK climate, with days averaging between 0°C and 9°C accounting for around 64.4% of the estimated temperature-related burden. This reflects sustained increases in health-care use across the winter period rather than sharp peaks on individual days. The study also identifies a practical concern during periods of extreme cold: when average temperatures fell below 0°C, recorded health-care use declined, suggesting that hazardous conditions such as snow and ice may create barriers to accessing care, even when health needs are likely to be high.

At the same time, the study highlights growing risks associated with hot weather, which is becoming more frequent under climate change. Very hot days were rare during the study period, limiting precision. Still, the data show clear same-day surges in parts of the system, including accident and emergency attendances and prescribing, when temperatures are unusually high. These rapid increases can place immediate strain on services and challenge day-to-day delivery.

Overall, the findings point to a key contrast: cold weather is linked to a larger cumulative burden on the NHS, while heat is associated with sudden spikes in demand. Older adults were consistently the most affected group across the analysis. The study suggests that planning for temperature-related variation in health-care use should be treated as a year-round issue, requiring attention to both recurring winter pressures and emerging heat-related risks.

More information: Patrick Fahr et al, Quantifying the health-care burden of temperature in the National Health Service in England: an economic analysis of resource use and costs, The Lancet Planetary Health. DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101373

Journal information: The Lancet Planetary Health Provided by University of Oxford

Easing the foreign corrupt practices act produced landmark financial windfalls for companies accused of foreign corruption

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On 10 February 2025, a significant shift in US anti-corruption policy prompted an immediate and substantial reaction in financial markets. When Donald Trump, President of the United States, signed an executive order suspending enforcement of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA), companies with a history of overseas corruption cases experienced sharp increases in their market valuations. On the day of the announcement alone, these firms collectively gained around USD 39 billion in market capitalisation. On average, each company previously investigated or sanctioned under the FCPA saw its value rise by approximately USD 160 million. One month later, the average gain per company had increased dramatically, reaching roughly USD 6.5 billion.

These findings come from a study published in the journal International Organization by Lorenzo Crippa of the University of Strathclyde, Edmund J. Malesky of Duke University, and Lucio Picci of the University of Bologna. Using rigorous statistical methods, the researchers examined changes in companies’ market valuations before and after the suspension of the Act to assess how investors responded to the removal of a key legal constraint on corporate behaviour abroad.

According to Lucio Picci, Professor of Economics at the University of Bologna, the market response highlights the central role of legal sanctions in deterring corruption. Once enforcement of the FCPA was suspended, companies already associated with corruption risks were rapidly re-evaluated by investors as more profitable opportunities. Picci warns that this development marks a sharp departure from the United States’ long-standing leadership in combating international corruption and could weaken global anti-corruption institutions by signalling a reduced commitment to enforcement.

The FCPA, enacted in 1977, was the first law of its kind worldwide, prohibiting US individuals and companies from bribing foreign officials to secure or maintain business relationships. Over time, it became a cornerstone of global anti-corruption efforts, shaping corporate conduct and influencing regulatory frameworks well beyond the United States. Its sudden suspension on 10 February 2025, without prior notice, created a natural experiment for analysing how markets react when a significant source of regulatory risk is abruptly removed.

The researchers focused on 261 companies listed on US stock exchanges that had previously been investigated or sanctioned for FCPA violations. Their market performance was compared with that of 236 similar firms that had never been subject to anti-corruption investigations. While President Trump justified the suspension by claiming the law disadvantaged US multinationals relative to foreign competitors, the data suggest otherwise. The benefits of the policy change were concentrated among companies already implicated in overseas corruption cases, while firms with no such history saw little comparable gain. On the day of the announcement, the average increase in market value for these firms was similar in size to typical fines imposed for FCPA violations, and the total gains far exceeded even the most significant penalties ever levied. The authors caution that weakening enforcement in the United States risks encouraging a broader decline in global anti-corruption efforts, with long-term consequences for market integrity and public trust.

More information: Lorenzo Crippa et al, Making Bribery Profitable Again? The Market Effects of Suspending Accountability for Overseas Bribery, International Organization. DOI: 10.1017/S0020818325100970

Journal information: International Organization Provided by Università di Bologna

UC review: Supporting and expanding workplace opportunities for veterans

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Although the United States is home to more than 15 million military veterans, who make up over six per cent of the national workforce, relatively little is known about their measurable economic impact. While veteran employment is often discussed in terms of transition challenges or workforce participation, rigorous quantitative research examining how veterans contribute to organisational and economic outcomes remains limited. Given the size of this population and the depth of training, leadership, and operational experience associated with military service, this lack of empirical evidence represents a significant gap in management and labour research.

This absence became clear to Daniel Peat, PhD, a scholar at the University of Cincinnati who specialises in military-affected individuals in business management. After publishing several academic papers and a book chapter, Peat found that no comprehensive review existed to synthesise research on veterans’ roles and impact within the civilian workforce. He viewed this omission as a sign of an underdeveloped field, noting that integrative reviews are often a marker of scholarly maturity. Without such groundwork, it is difficult for researchers to build cumulative knowledge or for practitioners to draw evidence-based conclusions.

In response, Peat and his colleagues produced a major research review titled “Veterans and military-connected individuals in the civilian workforce: an integrative review and research agenda.” Published in the Organization and Management Journal, the review was designed to consolidate existing findings while also setting clear directions for future study. Rather than treating veteran employment as a niche issue, the authors positioned it firmly within mainstream organisational and management research.

Peat’s perspective is shaped not only by his academic role but also by his own experience as a veteran and as a professor in the Carl H. Lindner College of Business. The review highlights a recurring problem faced by military-connected individuals: their skills and experiences are frequently underutilised in civilian workplaces. This is not due to a lack of ability, but rather to difficulties translating military roles, competencies, and leadership experience into civilian organisational frameworks. As a result, employers may overlook valuable capabilities, leading to missed opportunities for both individuals and organisations.

To develop their analysis, the research team examined the work of 189 authors spanning more than 60 years. Their synthesis revealed that empirical research in this area is not only limited in volume but also narrow in focus. In particular, there is a lack of detailed investigation into the specific barriers military-affiliated workers encounter, such as cultural mismatches, credential recognition, or organisational bias. The authors argue that addressing these gaps through more systematic, data-driven research is essential. Doing so would enable organisations to design better support structures and help ensure that veterans’ contributions are fully recognised and effectively integrated into the civilian workforce.

More information: Daniel Peat et al, Veterans and military-connected individuals in the civilian workforce: an integrative review and research agenda, Organization Management Journal. DOI: 10.1108/OMJ-10-2024-2323

Journal information: Organization Management Journal Provided by University of Cincinnati

Why Americans often refuse to negotiate — and pay the price for it

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Would you pay more for a car to avoid the discomfort of negotiating? Research suggests that many people would, and routinely do. A new series of studies led by David Hunsaker, a clinical associate professor of management at the IU Kelley School of Business, Indianapolis, shows that negotiation avoidance is not a rare preference but a widespread behavioural norm. Faced with the prospect of bargaining, many Americans are willing to sacrifice money in exchange for certainty, emotional ease, and the ability to sidestep an interaction they find unpleasant.

Across five large-scale studies, the researchers found that 95 per cent of participants chose not to negotiate at least some of the time, with individuals avoiding negotiation in up to 51 per cent of situations. This finding reframes negotiation avoidance as a default behaviour rather than an exception. Instead of approaching negotiation as an opportunity to gain value, many people see it as stressful, risky, or socially awkward. As a result, they opt out even when the potential benefits are clear and the context makes negotiation acceptable.

The research, published in Negotiation and Conflict Management Research, was conducted with Hong Zhang of Leuphana University and Alice J. Lee of Cornell University. Together, the authors explored not only how often people avoid negotiating, but also what that avoidance costs them and how organisations may respond. Two concepts are central to their analysis: the Threshold for Negotiation Initiation, which reflects how much people need to save before negotiation feels worthwhile, and the Willingness to Pay to Avoid Negotiation, which captures how much extra they are prepared to spend to skip the process entirely.

The idea for the study emerged during a negotiation conference in Israel, when Hunsaker and his colleagues visited a market where bargaining is expected. Despite this, none of them negotiated. The moment raised a simple question: why do people fail to negotiate even when the opportunity is obvious? That question became the foundation of the research. As Hunsaker explains, the real issue is not whether negotiation is available, but whether people are willing to engage when it presents itself.

The findings also help explain why fixed, no-haggle pricing has become such a practical selling point. Even in car buying, a traditionally negotiable setting, many companies now advertise the absence of negotiation as a benefit. The research suggests firms can raise prices by five to eleven per cent under these models, and more than half of consumers will still accept the higher cost to avoid bargaining. Negotiation avoidance, in other words, has clear financial consequences for individuals and clear incentives for businesses.

Another insight from the studies is that people judge the value of negotiating in terms of percentages rather than absolute sums. On average, participants needed savings of between 21 and 36 per cent before negotiation felt worthwhile. Smaller percentage gains were often dismissed, even when the actual amount of money involved was significant. Hunsaker hopes these findings raise awareness. Negotiation aversion is real, he argues, but recognising it is the first step towards overcoming it—particularly at moments when negotiation can shape long-term financial and career outcomes.

More information: David Hunsaker et al, Beyond Propensity: Thresholds, Costs, and Interventions in Negotiation Avoidance, Negotiation and Conflict Management Research. DOI: 10.34891/yv27-1416

Journal information: Negotiation and Conflict Management Research Provided by Indiana University

Wasted Cold, Untapped Wealth: Study Shows How LNG Terminals Can Harness Seawater to Recover Valuable Hydrocarbons

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Every day, liquefied natural gas receiving terminals around the world warm LNG from cryogenic temperatures back into a gaseous form so it can be delivered to homes, power plants, and industrial users. This routine process underpins the global gas supply, yet it also produces a largely overlooked by-product. As LNG is heated, vast amounts of cold energy are released, most often into seawater, where its potential value is discarded. A new study suggests that this “wasted cold” could instead be harnessed to recover valuable hydrocarbons such as ethane and liquefied petroleum gas, delivering both economic and environmental benefits.

The research, carried out by engineers from The University of Western Australia, examines how LNG regasification systems could be redesigned to make productive use of cold energy rather than losing it. The team developed and evaluated three alternative process configurations that integrate hydrocarbon recovery directly into LNG regasification. All of the designs use seawater as the heat source, which is already common practice at LNG terminals, meaning the proposed concepts could potentially be applied without introducing fuel combustion or high-temperature heating utilities.

LNG arrives at import terminals at temperatures close to –160 degrees Celsius, yet, under conventional operation, this extreme cold is neutralised and released with little regard for its value. Lead author Shing Hon Wong explains that this cold energy can instead be exploited to separate ethane and LPG from the LNG stream. These components are often significantly more valuable than natural gas itself, particularly in regions with strong petrochemical industries. Recovering them at the point of regasification could therefore increase the overall value of imported LNG without increasing upstream production.

Ethane and LPG are essential feedstocks for chemical manufacturing and a wide range of industrial applications. In many markets, their prices exceed those of pipeline natural gas, making on-site recovery economically attractive. To test this potential, the researchers used advanced process simulation software to model three system designs and assess their technical performance and profitability. Two of the designs focused on maximising the use of LNG cold energy by re-condensing methane-rich streams, allowing pumps to replace more energy-intensive compressors. The third design operated at lower temperatures to maximise ethane recovery, but required additional compression and higher operating costs.

The results were encouraging across all configurations. Ethane recovery ranged from about 91 to 96 per cent, while LPG recovery exceeded 90 per cent in every case. When economic performance was compared, one design stood out. For a typical LNG receiving terminal processing around 3.15 million tonnes of LNG per year, this configuration was estimated to generate an annual net profit of approximately 97 million US dollars. Further analysis showed that the economics remained robust under a range of LNG compositions, terminal sizes, and market conditions.

In addition to financial gains, the study highlights environmental advantages. Using seawater as the sole heat source avoids direct combustion and reduces associated carbon dioxide emissions. The discharge of cooled seawater is similar to that of existing LNG vaporisation systems and can be managed with standard thermal controls. Although the authors stress that their work is conceptual rather than site-specific, the findings clearly show that cold energy recovery at LNG terminals is an underused opportunity. With the proper process design, LNG regasification can move beyond simple energy loss and become a source of higher-value products and improved efficiency.

More information: Shing-hon Wong et al, A technoeconomic analysis of cryogenic recovery of heavy hydrocarbons from LNG using seawater as the heat source, Energy & Environment Nexus. DOI: 10.48130/een-0025-0013

Journal information: Energy & Environment Nexus Provided by Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University